The Derby

Top the bet up. £210 @ 14/1 would give you £2940, add that to £6K and you have £9000 to £300. A decent sized bet at 30/1. Nice.
 
Thanks, Brian. I know I'd be very tempted to lay it off, not necessarily for a guaranteed profit but for a bet to nothing, as I did with Rigmarole in the Champion Hurdle and Heros Collonges in the National a couple of years ago (backed them to small stakes at 120 and 370 respectively and got rid of it all at a fraction of that).

I tend to do it that way if I conclude the horse probably won't win. The returned stake usually goes on to something else in the race!
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@May 20 2007, 05:58 PM
Top the bet up. £210 @ 14/1 would give you £2940, add that to £6K and you have £9000 to £300. A decent sized bet at 30/1. Nice.
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Surely you'd only consider that if you truly believed 14/1 was generous?

66/1 has proved a shrewd bet. I wouldn't say 14/1 was.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid+May 20 2007, 07:13 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Desert Orchid @ May 20 2007, 07:13 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Euronymous@May 20 2007, 05:58 PM
Top the bet up. £210 @ 14/1 would give you £2940, add that to £6K and you have £9000 to £300. A decent sized bet at 30/1. Nice.
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Surely you'd only consider that if you truly believed 14/1 was generous?

66/1 has proved a shrewd bet. I wouldn't say 14/1 was. [/b][/quote]
No, but in reality he has 30/1.
 
I needed somebody to convince me that Archi was a good thing, and DO now has. I have a matured SSIA account and am now going in for the lot at 10s. If it loses DO will be held fully accountable.
 
Ooooooooooooooo the pressure :eek:

I trust if Archi wins I will be rewarded with a beach villa in the Seychelles?

Euronymous, the overall returns-to-outlay may well average 29/1 but it only disguises the poor value on the 14/1 bet. By not putting that on, he's got 66/1, which is massively better. I might agree with you if I thought the horse was a true 5/1 chance, but it isn't.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@May 21 2007, 01:19 PM

Euronymous, the overall returns-to-outlay may well average 29/1 but it only disguises the poor value on the 14/1 bet. By not putting that on, he's got 66/1, which is massively better. I might agree with you if I thought the horse was a true 5/1 chance, but it isn't.
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You`re probably right, when i have a nice ante-post position i tend to keep topping up though. But crucially, when i was doing this with Finsceal Beo in March and April the presense of Sander Camillo at the head of the market means i was still having value bets. I suppose that`s the difference.
 
Yes. I was on Rooster Booster at 14s and 12s and kept backing it all the way down to 9/2. When I started backing it I thought it was a 3/1 shot; latterly I thought it should be odds-on.
 
Originally posted by an capall@May 21 2007, 12:57 PM
I needed somebody to convince me that Archi was a good thing, and DO now has. I have a matured SSIA account and am now going in for the lot at 10s.
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I was offering 11/1
 
Having watched all the appropriate videos again i`ve stepped in on the 10s as well. Authorized will not win if the ground is on the fast side.
 
While I am inclined to agree that Authorized's price is now on the short side, he has plenty going for him. His time at Newbury last October was excellent and although conditions were testing the race clearly wasn't simply a slog. Authorized was ridden for a turn of foot and produced one. Eagle Mountain is supposed to have run below form there as is Adagio at York but I wouldn't be so sure. Authorized travels, stays and has a good turn of foot which is what you look for in a Derby winner. How he would handle fast ground at Epsom is anyone's guess but nobody can say he will not act on it. All anyone can say is that he may not.

The case for Archipenko is based on the likelihood of him making considerable improvement from his first run of the season. That remains to be seen. For me, he would be far from certain to beat Soldier Of Fortune and Admiralofthefleet based on what we've seen so far on the racecourse.
 
Yes. I was on Rooster Booster at 14s and 12s and kept backing it all the way down to 9/2. When I started backing it I thought it was a 3/1 shot; latterly I thought it should be odds-on.
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Enough already with the Chicken!!
 
Originally posted by gus@May 21 2007, 04:25 PM
The case for Archipenko is based on the likelihood of him making considerable improvement from his first run of the season. That remains to be seen.
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My figures already have Archipenko ahead of Authorized (but behind Strategic Prince). I admit it is the expectation of considerable improvement that is getting me excited about Archipenko but he was noted as being backward before the race and still beat some good markers.

Something to consider:

A very good judge really fancied Mores Wells would win the Derrinstown en route to Epsom, so much so that I backed the colt for Epsom beforehand. Imagine Archipenko and Yellowstone hadn't run. Mores Wells would have been beaten 1¼L by a fit, odds-on O'Brien rep (Macarthur) and they'd have been 22L clear of the other one.

Now take on board my theory, which I expounded before this race, that the far side principals in the Guineas were a lot better than the near side, and put Yellowstone in the race. He would have gone into it top rated on my figures and would have won.

Yet an unfit Archipenko beat the lot.

I reckon that's good enough for me and my beach villa in the Seychelles.
 
Equally, consider the possibility that Mores Wells and Macarthur are just a couple of slow old boats and Yellowstone is exactly what the bare form of the Guineas suggests and is a stone off top class. I'm quite prepared to accept that Archipenko is a good colt and has a fair chance in the Derby but I can't have him ahead of Authorized at this stage.
 
Originally posted by charlieD+May 21 2007, 06:36 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (charlieD @ May 21 2007, 06:36 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-gus@May 21 2007, 07:34 PM
Yellowstone is exactly what the bare form of the Guineas suggests and is a stone off top class.
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Couldn't the same be said of Adagio and Al Shemali, [/b][/quote]
Yes. It's a selective quote, of course. I did say "consider the possibility" that Yellowstone is a stone off top class. We should also consider the possibility that Adagio and Al Shemali are as well and we might also reflect on the fact that Authorized thrashed them in the Dante whereas Archipenko didn't thrash Yellowstone in the Derrinstown but simply beat him with a little in hand.

To repeat, I accept that Authorized's price is on the short side but he nevertheless has excellent prospects of winning the Derby and certainly deserves to be favourite.
 
We could say Authorized thrashed nowt really Gus, all depends how you look at the race i suppose

Authorized does have the profile of a potential Derby winner, but at the price i'll be laying as long as the rain stays away

I cant get away from Soldier of Fortune and i've also a feeling AoB's other runner Admiralofthefleet may go well too
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 21 2007, 11:14 PM
How did you rate Authorized on the clock in the Dante and RP Trophy, charlie?
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can't tell yer about RP Trophy, before Jan 2007, no UK data left on my machine cry


115 for Dante
 
Originally posted by BrianH@May 11 2007, 01:35 PM
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Then how about this? I am now convinced that Aidan O'Brien will win the Derby. But I haven't the faintest idea with which one. Mark Winstanley thinks that he knows it's Macarthur but then some old mates of his call him Mark Wins Rarely.

Please give me some clues. [/quote]
Couldn't resist this one from todays Weekender :laughing:

Now it's not unusual for journos to launch their own tipping lines, nor is it unusual for other services to feature in adverts complete with claims that give them the appearence of being indestructable, (we've all seen them etc) so that Winstanleys features the usual guff is no surprise, but the final line made me chuckle

"Join my priivate service!
65% winning strike rate in 2007
Servic eis well ahead this year
Incl winners at up to 8/1"

With the exception of Mordin and Segal, who will at least try and hunt out the odd big price I've always felt the Weekender' team seems to trade in trting to accumulate short-priced favs, (something which I think is punting suicide, adn my records suggest I can't make work).

Typical is their self glorification as highlighted in their "Around Training Centres" feature.

"Winners last week

Measured Tempo 4/1, Janina 5/2, Bollin Derek 9/4, Authorized 10/11 and Sakhees Secret 1/4"

Clearly they omit the failures, but ........ :laughing:
 
Winstanley is convinced that Arch Swing turns the form round on Sunday.


Segal thinks it is better for the sport if a good guy - PCH - wins the Derby than just another Ballydoyle animal. Shoddy.
 
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