The Derby

Archipenko out to 18's tonight on Betfair.

Interpretation being put on it in the BF Antepost forum is he might be on his way to France on Sunday. 10f vs 12f.

Think it would be a great pity of that were to be the case.
 
Originally posted by DrizzleCity@May 28 2007, 11:46 PM
Archipenko out to 18's tonight on Betfair.

Interpretation being put on it in the BF Antepost forum is he might be on his way to France on Sunday. 10f vs 12f.

Think it would be a great pity of that were to be the case.
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Yep, interesting drift DC and it would be pity if he were to bypass THE Derby and go for a 10f G1 race instead
 
I can't see Dettori as a minus unless he gets a Swain like rush of blood. He rides Epsom very well - he has just had to ride lots of hopeless vanity Godolphin runners in recent years or non stayers like DM. He would have won the Derby in 1997 for example had he not been required to ride some useless Godolphin maiden winner.

I see in The Times speculation that Hughes will have to ride Arabian Gulf as all the other contenders are claimed , injured or banned.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 29 2007, 09:59 AM
I'm sure Stoute is delighted...
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:D

I see Seb Sanders rides for Stoute/Abdulla tonight - perhaps he will get the call instead.
 
Anyone watched those RUK Derby and Oaks memories - though there have been some odd choices - Lupe's Oaks for example - some things struck me and after digging out a video called the Derby from a few years back .

1 How brilliant Lester really was round there - nearly always two or three off the rail , never in trouble and never unbalanced in the finish
2 How many times Eddery blew it - El Gran Senor, Silver Patriarch, Red Glow etc
3 How Greville Starkey avoided lynching for that dreadful ride on Dancing Brave I shall never know .
4 How Carson and Swinburn - pushed Nashwan and Shergar unnecessarily. They had much harder races than they needed to.
 
Originally posted by Ardross@May 29 2007, 09:31 AM
Anyone watched those RUK Derby and Oaks memories - though there have been some odd choices - Lupe's Oaks for example - some things struck me and after digging out a video called the Derby from a few years back .

1 How brilliant Lester really was round there - nearly always two or three off the rail , never in trouble and never unbalanced in the finish
2 How many times Eddery blew it - El Gran Senor, Silver Patriarch, Red Glow etc
3 How Greville Starkey avoided lynching for that dreadful ride on Dancing Brave I shall never know .
4 How Carson and Swinburn - pushed Nashwan and Shergar unnecessarily. They had much harder races than they needed to.
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The one thing you could say about Carson was that if he was on the best horse he'd win... often at the expense of his mount though. He didn't know the meaning of winning cleverly. Once he saw success he'd ride them out head down. Mind you being too clever was the undoing of many. I can only forgive Eddery for El Gran Senor as I had a bit each-way on Secreto..
 
Originally posted by charlieD+May 29 2007, 12:03 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (charlieD @ May 29 2007, 12:03 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-DrizzleCity@May 28 2007, 11:46 PM
Archipenko out to 18's tonight on Betfair.

Interpretation being put on it in the BF Antepost forum is he might be on his way to France on Sunday. 10f vs 12f.

Think it would be a great pity of that were to be the case.
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Yep, interesting drift DC and it would be pity if he were to bypass THE Derby and go for a 10f G1 race instead [/b][/quote]
Admiralofthefleet drifting quite a lot too, out to 29.00 now.
 
Also Charlie Farnsbarns runs at Sandown tonight. Second to Authorized in the RP. It will be interesting to see how he goes given the ground is soft.
 
Archie back into 13.5
Eagle 17.5
Soldier 19
Admiral 42
Anton 75

Certainly looks like like they can't make up their mind or someone is doing a bit of messing with the market.

Regards
--J.
 
<< Unfortunately, HRE was shelved and O'Brien had to get a move along with some of those who he previously was allowing to come to hand in their own time. It wasn't ideal and it would likely have served these others better had they been left alone for another few weeks. >>

I agree TommyL. I wasn't necessarily criticising AO'B, and my remark specified the concentration on two particular horses *early* in the season, ie pre-Guineas. I still think - and the current uncertainly regarding Ballydoyle Derby runners seems to confirm it - that this year in particular they don't seem to have a very good grip on what they have; as I think I said, the extremes of the weather won't have helped. But maybe all of them apart form HRE are much of a muchness talented but not top notch

I seem to remember [as I had a sizebale antepost on Horatio and was accordingly anxious!] that there was also uncertainty last year about whether HN would go to the Derby until fairly close to the day, and also pre-race uncertainty about jockey bookings.

I think the weather has put paid to Strategic Prince's chances, esp with the watering of the course last week; it wouldn't even amaze me if it keeps raining to see him pulled out. Glad I took an alt e/w on Soldier Of Fortune when I knew Moores Wells was NR.
 
Now I wish I'd had the cojones to back it again at the 25s but I had bad vibes at the time :(

Still, the main thing is he is the stable #1 and Authorized is there for the taking.

I'd love to see SteveM's dosage figures and thoughts.
 
If Passage Of Time hacks up in the Oaks, might we see Soldier of Fortune start to shorten on the basis of their Saint-Cloud form?

It's well worth watching that race (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=timfUoFqv9A); Passage Of Time comes with a hugely impressive burst on the outside, but what's interesting is how SoF appears to be going at the one pace yet as soon as she goes by is the only one that can pick up again and go with her.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@May 30 2007, 09:31 AM
I'd love to see SteveM's dosage figures and thoughts.
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May all of your wishes be made manifest…

It’s in today’s Derby pullout (centre pages)… I’m afraid I’ve gone with the favourite. Aqaleem and Eagle Mountain may be next best.

A more readable version will be up on Steve Roman's site later.

Pedigree Pointers

Authorized conforms to Dosage blue print for the Derby and has plenty going for him besides – Aqaleem and Eagle Mountain may be next best

Authorized has all the credentials for victory at Epsom

THE OLD ADAGE goes that the fastest horse wins the 2,000 Guineas, the luckiest horse wins the Derby and the best horse wins the St Leger. The Dosage system tells us that a large chunk of that ‘luck’ in the Derby resides in having a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of 1.00 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course muddy the waters – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going conditions, how well the horse has been prepared for the race and simply how good it is to begin with.

But when a high combination of these things come together – when the one that has the best Dosage profile for the race is also the favourite, is both agile and well balanced, and is trained to the bone by a consummate professional, we are presented (dare I say it) with something of the look of a good thing. This year offers us such a prime example in Authorized. It looks to be the opportunity Frankie Dettori has been waiting for, one he will find difficult to mess up. The Italian’s ambition of winning the Derby seems closer than it has been before – it has become palpable almost close enough to taste.

The accompanying table shows the 19 left in at the five-day confirmation stage and as usual is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI).

2007 Derby contenders

Colt sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Soldier Of Fortune (Galileo/Erins Isle) 3-1-8-8-2 = 22, 0.57, -0.23
Eastern Anthem (Singspiel/Zinaad) 3-0-16-8-3 = 30, 0.58, -0.27
Anton Chekhov (Montjeu/Shirley Heights) 3-1-14-6-4 = 28, 0.65, -0.25
Regime (Golan/Sadler’s Wells) 3-0-12-6-1 = 22, 0.69, -0.09
Acapulco (Galileo/Darshaan) 3-0-12-5-2 = 22, 0.69, -0.14
Leander (Kalanisi/Slip Anchor) 2-2-8-4-2 = 18, 0.80, -0.11
Mahler (Galileo/Rainbow Quest) 7-0-15-10-0 = 32, 0.83, 0.13
Authorized (Montjeu/Saumarez) 4-0-14-4-0 = 22, 1.00, 0.18
Arabian Gulf (Sadler’s Wells/Selkirk) 8-1-25-8-0 = 42, 1.05, 0.21
Aqaleem (Sinndar/Sadler’s Wells) 4-4-9-7-0 = 24, 1.09, 0.21
Eagle Mountain (Rock Of Gibraltar/Darshaan) 2-2-11-1-2 = 18, 1.12, 0.06
Lucarno (Dynaformer/Diesis) 5-2-22-1-2 = 32, 1.29, 0.22
Petara Bay (Peintre Celebre/Silver Hawk) 8-0-25-0-1 = 34, 1.52, 0.41
Strategic Prince (Dansili/Diesis) 3-2-7-1-1 = 14, 1.55, 0.36
Salford Mill (Peintre Celebre/Kahyasi) 7-0-18-1-0 = 26, 1.60, 0.50
Archipenko (Kingmambo/Nijinsky) 1-2-21-4-0 = 38, 1.62, 0.53
Admiralofthefleet (Danehill/Mr Prospector) 13-7-23-0-1 = 44, 2.52, 0.70
Kid Mambo (Lemon Drop Kid/Storm Cat) 7-1-10-0-0 = 18, 2.60, 0.83
Yellowstone (Rock Of Gibraltar/Exclusive Era) 7-4-11-0-0 = 22, 3.00, 0.82


Empty handed
The largesse extended by Sheikh Mohammed in allowing his retained jockey Frankie Dettori to continue his partnership with the Derby favourite Authorized (owned by Saleh Al Homaizi and Imad Al Sagar) should have given us a strong hint that Godolphin had nothing for this year’s race that was setting the gallops alight or pulses racing. So it should have been no surprise to see Mythical Kid and Jalil withdrawn at the five-day confirmation stage, leaving Eastern Anthem as Godolphin’s sole representative and the best of a bad bunch.

Eastern Anthem was, it is true, backed for the Derby earlier this year, but could only finish third to Salford Mill on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket at the beginning of May and was a subsequent uninspiring runner-up to Halicarnassus in a three-runner Listed event at Goodwood, in receipt of 5lb from the winner. The Singspiel colt is the first foal of 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winner Kazzia. He derives 11 stamina points from In The Wings (and his sire Sadler’s Wells) and from Shirley Heights – who is the sire of Eastern Anthem’s dam sire (Zinaad). Eastern Anthem appears near the head of our table with a negative centre of distribution, denoting pronounced stamina potential. The Derby trip will present no problem, but enthusiasm for his chances does not appear to be brimming.
It is probably just as well that Jalil has been withdrawn, the Storm Cat colt has no prepotent stamina points in his Dosage profile and would have appeared at the foot of our table. His stamina profile is far from what it ought to be to compete effectively in this. The writing was also on the wall for Mythical Kid who could only finish a well-beaten fourth of six in a Listed event behind the eye-catching Lucarno at Newmarket last weekend.

Lucarno finished runner-up to Diamond Tycoon in a good-looking Newbury maiden in April and he followed up with a facile win on the Kempton all-weather before winning at Newmarket at Listed level over a mile and a quarter last weekend. John Gosden has indicated that he is giving serious consideration to turning him out for this and the Dynaformer colt has good chances of getting the trip.
There was a lot to like about the way in which the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Authorized stamped his authority on the Dante Stakes, the most significant trial for the Derby, teeing himself up to emulate Motivator – the last horse to complete the Dante/Derby double. The 25/1 winner of the Racing Post Trophy, when run at Newbury last term, is by Montjeu out of a Saumarez mare and should excel when stepped up to a mile-and-a-half, having just the sort of headline numbers in his Dosage profile that you would expect for the Derby.

O’Brien team…
Nevertheless, Aidan O’Brien plans to have a say in the outcome of this year’s renewal, being responsible for no less than eight of the 19 left in at the time of writing, five of which have won their most recent race this season.
The trainer sent four of the five to post in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, which also included the Ballysax Stakes winner Mores Wells. Archipenko quickened up to win pleasingly from his fast finishing stablemate Yellowstone, with favourite Macarthur disappointing behind these. Yellowstone won a maiden at Cork last term but has not managed to finish in front again in five subsequent starts and could only manage eleventh place in the 2,000 Guineas. Yellowstone has no points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile and does not look to have an obvious chance in this.
Archipenko won his maiden at the third time of asking last term when defeating Honoured Guest by six lengths. His chances of getting 12 furlongs rest primarily on his dam side. Nijinsky is his dam sire and Archipenko’s four prepotent stamina points are derived from him. The sire’s side holds out less obvious stamina attributes, but Kingmambo has sired the likes of St Leger winner Rule Of Law, so when matched with the right mare is capable of getting staying types. Archipenko is likely to be effective at up to a mile and a half, although his optimum trip may be a little shy of the required distance. There are others here who appear more likely to fully see out the trip. He may prove better suited to the French Derby.
Eagle Mountain looked promising when finishing fifth in the 2,000 Guineas and looks sure to improve at middle distances. The Rock Of Gibraltar colt, out of a Darshaan mare, is well placed in our table as a horse entitled to take part in the Derby and has sidestepped the Irish Guineas to take part here. He has obvious chances in terms of suitability and ability.

AFTER finishing down the field behind Mores Wells in a Leopardstown maiden at the beginning of April Mahler stepped up his effort when returning to the course to win comfortably. He followed this up in a 12 furlong Derby trial at Gowran Park where he made all running out a comfortable winner. The colt has no worries on the stamina front being by Galileo out of a Rainbow Quest mare and has 10 points in the stamina wing of his profile.
Soldier Of Fortune got up to beat Arabian Gulf in the Chester Vase, in a closely contested duel. The colt won the Prix Noailles at Longchamp on his reappearance this season and finished runner-up to the subsequent Musidora Stakes winner and Oaks favourite Passage Of Time in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start last term. He had previously beaten Mores Wells in a maiden at Navan.
Anton Chekhov won the Group 2 Prix Hocquart at Longchamp by a head over 11 furlongs after finishing down the field behind Mores Wells in the Ballysax Stakes.
Acapulco, didn’t appear as a two-year-old but won his maiden at Navan before splitting Salford Mill and Eastern Anthem at Newmarket. The Galileo colt has reportedly been showing well at home on the gallops under Seamus Heffernan. The trip will not be a problem – like Eagle Mountain he is out of a Darshaan mare – and he could have a much bigger chance than his current odds suggest.
Admiralofthefleet has won three of his six starts including Group victories in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot and the Dee Stakes on his latest start at Chester.
Chinese Whisper has only won a Galway maiden in six appearances despite finishing runner-up in a Group 3 event at Longchamp. He has been earmarked by connections for the French Derby. At the time of writing any of O’Brien’s remaining eight could still go to Epsom.

…and the others
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Arabian Gulf, by Sadler's Wells out of the 1,000 Guineas winner Wince, won a maiden at Newmarket in April and ran only once last term. He is a brother of Quiff, the 2004 St Leger runner-up, and will be well suited to a mile-and-a-half and further. Khalid Abdullah’s other possible Raincoat, runner-up to Authorized in the Dante, has not been supplemented and is being pointed instead at the French Derby.

Since graduating from the all-weather David Elsworth’s Salford Mill lost out by a head to Petara Bay at Newmarket in the Feilden Stakes (over 9 furlongs), but returned to winning ways under Kerrin McEvoy when seeing off Acapulco and Eastern Anthem in the Newmarket Stakes run at a furlong further. The Peintre Celebre colt, out of a Kahyasi mare, has chances of getting the trip and has reportedly begun to sparkle after putting in a couple of lacklustre pieces of work. Ted Durcan takes the ride as McEvoy is claimed by Godolphin.
Terry Mills is due to saddle both Petara Bay and Kid Mambo on Saturday. The nearest Mills has come to winning the Derby is with fifth-placed All The Way in 1999. Although Petara Bay beat Salford Mill in the Feilden he disappointed in the Sandown Classic Trial and Kid Mambo, who won a maiden at Sandown in September, could do no better than third in the Lingfield Derby Trial this season.
Martin Dwyer who partnered Sir Percy to victory 12 months ago, will ride the Michael Bell-trained Regime, with Jamie Spencer sidelined due to suspension. The Golan colt won a maiden at Beverley last term and was runner-up to Miss Beatrix in the Goffs Million at the Curragh. He subsequently finished down the field behind Authorized in the Racing Post Trophy. Nevertheless, he ran out a good winner of the Sandown Classic Trial on his reappearance this season from Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Striving Storm. He has more than the required stamina for this, but needs to show some improvement to figure.

Aqaleem
The Marcus Tregoning-trained Lingfield Derby Trial winner Aqaleem went into that race a maiden and returned a good looking prospect, running out an impressive four-length winner over Hearthstead Maison and Kid Mambo. The Sinndar colt has Sadler’s Wells for a dam sire so stamina will not be an issue in this. Indeed Sinndar (who is not a chef-de-race) would only enhance the stamina already evident in Aqaleem’s Dosage profile, which is already close to ideal for the Derby. The colt also finished a neck in front of Authorized in a Conditions Stakes at Newbury in September when the pair finished second and third to Mark Johnston’s Teslin.

Strategic Prince finished eighth in the 2,000 Guineas on his only appearance this season, but won three of his five starts last term, two of them at Group 2 level (at Newmarket and Goodwood). Trained by Paul Cole for Sultan Ahmad Shah, the colt finished third to Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor in the Dewhurst, on softer than ideal going for him. The Dosage system indicates a best trip of around 10 furlongs and he may be found a little wanting for stamina in this. He also looks unlikely to get his required fast surface.
The maiden Leander makes up the numbers. In terms of stamina the Kalanisi colt, out of a Slip Anchor mare, ought to stay, but is unlikely to be good enough to play a leading part and will hopefully not impede those with real chances. His best work has been seen in the closing stages in his two public appearances to date, but the Brett Johnson charge is likely to be hopelessly outclassed here.

Speed/stamina balance
The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often said to be expressed as a Dosage index (DI) of 1.00 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero.

The average DI for the past ten winners is 1.33, but those slightly below this figure down to around 1.00 (or less) appear best suited to the stamina requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous winners
Year Colt DI
2006 Sir Percy 0.54
2005 Motivator 1.43
2004 North Light 1.13* (from 1.60)
2003 Kris Kin 1.05* (from 1.34)
2002 High Chaparral 0.82
2001 Galileo 1.11
2000 Sinndar 1.56
1999 Oath 1.86
1998 High Rise 0.82
1997 Benny The Dip 3.00

Average 1.33
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Benny The Dip is the only horse with a DI of above 1.86 to have won the Derby in the past decade (but many consider the short-head runner-up Silver Patriarch, with a perfect profile of DI 1.00, CD 0.03, to have been desperately unlucky). The winners who match our requirement over same period are: Sir Percy (0.54), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82), Galileo (1.11) and High-Rise (0.82).

Shortlist
We arrive at the following shortlist of those with the required stamina for this year’s race: Soldier Of Fortune (0.57), Eastern Anthem (DI 0.58), Anton Chekhov (0.65), Regime (0.69), Acapulco (0.69), Leander (0.80), Mahler (0.83), Authorized (1.00), Arabian Gulf (1.05), Aqaleem (1.09), Eagle Mountain (1.12) and Lucarno (1.29).

Those with realistic chances who best fit our criteria this year are: Mahler, Authorized, Arabian Gulf, Aqaleem, Eagle Mountain and Lucarno. I also have a sneaking regard for the form of Soldier Of Fortune, who will certainly get the trip. Of these Authorized is taken to prevail. Aqaleem could prove next best with the Ballydoyle contingent, Lucarno and Arabian Gulf left to fight over the remaining place in the frame.

Verdict:

1) Authorized
2) Aqualeem
3) Eagle Mountain
4) Soldier Of Fortune
5) Lucarno
6) Arabian Gulf
7) Mahler

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
 
Excellent stuff, Steve. Many thanks.

As you know, I prefer to start by looking at the best horses and seeing if they are likely to operate effectively at the trip. I think Archipenko is by some way the best in this year's race and I'm not put off on stamina issues.

Authorized is in the chasing pack on my ratings and will be very difficult to keep out of the frame but at current odds could not possibly carry a penny of my hard-earned. Should Archipenko fail, for whatever reason, I hope Authorized does the business for you.
 
Originally posted by gus@May 28 2007, 08:01 AM
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, of course.

Bold tactics won him the day on High Chaparral and nearly did the same with Dylan Thomas. He had the guts to kick on off a surprisingly steady pace for a Derby and only just got caught. Yes, he was beaten but that isn't the sole test of a ride.
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Well obviously Murtagh is capable of riding brilliant races or he wouldn't get the rides he does, nor win the ones he does. But for such a high profile jockey he does ride some real stinkers, to the point that I think twice about backing any horse he's on. I think it might be something to do with his constant struggle with his weight - he might not be very bright, and starving himself [and therefore his BRAIN] might not help :rolleyes:
 
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