The Derby

They have a good chance, 8 runners will assure them at least a place.

Pipe would be criticed if doing something like this but as is Obrien............
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 31 2007, 02:03 PM
What price a Ballydoyle winner?
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If you are able to get the best prices on offer for all of them it's 15/8 a Ballydoyle winner.

Similarly it's 2/9 that the name of the winner will start with the letter A.
 
Pipe would be criticed if doing something like this but as is Obrien............
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I thought John Magnier made a good point last year when he explained that it's not just Coolmore/Ballydoyle that have an interest in the horses, but the breeders, pinhookers, brokers etc. etc. involved in them too.

Thus, if each horse has gone out and proved themselves in a trial, why shouldn't they take their chance? Should those other parties with a vested interest (even if it's just a reputational boost at stake) be denied a shot at having handled a Derby winner because the horse was unlucky enough to end up in the same stable as a lot of other good horses?

Of the 8 set to run, 4 (Admiralofthefleet, Anton Chekhov, Archipenko, Soldier Of Fortune) have won recognised trials this season, another (Yellowstone) was second in one of those trials, another (Mahler) won a minor trial, another (Acapulco) was 2nd in a minor trial, and the last one is Eagle Mountain - 5th in the Guineas and a 7 length winner of the G2 Beresford last season.

Which ones shouldn't run?
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@May 31 2007, 02:00 PM
Just got The Weekender and here are Winstanley`s Tips for Epsom:

Passage of Time
Sixties Icon
Authorized

:clap:
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Yep 3 short-priced favourites. Sounds about right for Winstanley, I don't know why he bothers, or why the Weekender pay him. Anyone can look at a tissue, spot he favourite and then build a case for it. Cullinan's done pretty much the same. At least Mordin starts off from a position of trying to get the favs beaten and find lines to do so, even if on this instance he's coming down on the side of Authorized
 
and we know that that has resulted in Kauto being practically rubbished as a plater and cockney rebel being deemed not fit to ever win a race again
 
I took the 9s on Aqaleem at Coral this morning with a saver on Eagle Mountain. I’ll probably add Authorized to my position on the remote chance he comes back to evens or against, but I’m not going odds on in this, especially given that Dettori could get roughed up by the Irish boys (Admiralofthefleet and Yellowstone are drawn on his immediate outside).

One of the few horses to have really impressed me so far this season is Sixties Icon, but I'm a bit squeamish about backing him on this going and have a sneaking regard for Septimus. On balance I'll leave this alone.

Good luck to Henry in the Oaks (for either one). I won't be having a bet, but will be cheering for Passage Of Time.
 
Arabian gulf is a non runner due to an infection .

From the SL

Saturday's Vodafone Derby at Epsom has been reduced to 18 runners following the withdrawal of Arabian Gulf.

Sir Michael Stoute declared the Sadler's Wells colt a non-runner after he met with a setback.

Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager for Arabian Gulf's owner Khalid Abdullah, said: "He's got an infection in one of his joints and is not going to run.

"It's not serious at all but enough to keep him out of the race - he will be fine in the long term."
 
I've backed both LUCARNO and YELLOWSTONE e/w. I was very taken with LUCARNO at Newmarket last Saturday and YELLOWSTONE ran as though needing the mile and a half at Leopardstown so hopefully one or both will chase AUTHORISED home. :D
 
Originally posted by stodge@Jun 1 2007, 01:20 PM
I've backed both LUCARNO and YELLOWSTONE e/w. I was very taken with LUCARNO at Newmarket last Saturday and YELLOWSTONE ran as though needing the mile and a half at Leopardstown so hopefully one or both will chase AUTHORISED home. :D
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Hughes was apparently booked for Lucarno before being told he was riding the now non-runner . Drowne rides now I think.
 
Note how well the Ballydoyle horses have run today...first and second in the Coronation Cup....2nd and 3rd in the Oaks today...

Also as important to note is the "outsiders" from the yard in the betting beat their better fancied horses.
 
I was going to mention it, but perhaps not surprisingly Gal - you beat me to it. You can add a 5th in the Oaks to the list of course too.

With 8 lining up tomorrow, I think a certain Italian might not be sleeping as well as he thought he would be tonight. :D
 
I would love to see Yellowstone win, but I doubt he has the class to win the Derby. Muttley and I saw this horse run at Cork last year, he's a good looking sort, but I just can't see him winning or even getting placed. However AdmiralOfTheFleet, his stable companion, does look the business to me. I loved the way he knuckled down and stayed at Chester. He looks well balanced and much stronger than last year. He is my pick.
 
Authorized ticks all the boxes, but he's way too short.

I have it between Eagle Mountain, Admiralofthefleet and Soldier Of Fortune.

I'm a bit disappointed that Wayne Lordan is on Soldier Of Fortune. Nothing against the guy, but I'd be amazed if any jockey was able to win a Derby in his first race at Epsom.

Little bit worried about Eagle Mountain staying but Admiralofthefleet's style of racing suggests to me he will. Both will handle the ground fine though and are backable prices, so I'll go with them.
 
A pleasant surprise to see Anton Chekhov lining up as he has been a long-standing ante-post for me, but in truth I would be suprised if he was good enough.

There are a couple of the O'Brien horses that I fancy but I am toying with the idea of trying to get the field in my pocket at evens.
 
FWIW, I've brought the ground out at -0.42 after today per mile, which is more consistent with Good than G/S (interestign to see what the post are calling it?). With further drying expected, I'm pretty confident it will be Good by 4.00 o'clock, which puts a slight question mark over the fav?
 
Martin Dwyer called it "like glue" today, which sounds like soft ground that's quickly drying up to me. It was very sunny there today so if there's no further rain, and the same happens tomorrow, you might be right. With the possible exception of Strategic Prince, I don't think too many of the main contenders will have much to complain about.
 
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