The Derby

By the time the Derby is run I reckon the going will be nearer good than anything else also. It wasn't that soft today.
 
I've been punting since 1999. In the 7 Derbys run since, I have not backed the winner. Tomorrow its more important for Aurthorized to break my duck then Frankies...
 
Originally posted by Gearoid@Jun 1 2007, 10:45 PM
I've been punting since 1999. In the 7 Derbys run since, I have not backed the winner. Tomorrow its more important for Aurthorized to break my duck then Frankies...
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So, you`re Irish and you didn`t back High Chaparral. Why?
 
Tomorrow, I shall be lavishing at least 5p on AQALEEM. Just for the record. (Especially as I failed miserably to back e/w the Thought of the Week, PEEPING FAWN!) :rant:
 
still think Eagle Mountain is a show in, had a ncie ew bet on him at 16s and have saved on Salford Mill ew as well as Lucarno.

Also tempted luck by adding Authorized in for a quid combination forecast and tricast.
 
Admiralofthefleet at 6.8 and Soldier Of Fortune at 7.2 in Betfair's "Aidan's Eight" market look very good value to me.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Jun 1 2007, 08:46 PM

Little bit worried about Eagle Mountain staying but Admiralofthefleet's style of racing suggests to me he will. Both will handle the ground fine though and are backable prices, so I'll go with them.
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Re Eagle Mountain - more than half the field have more stamina potential than Eagle Mountain, but he is only just below the optimum blend of speed and stamina for this and well within the average of previous winners. He has good chances of getting the trip.

It really depends how much of a test it becomes. With the ground having every chance to dry further before the off the greater the chance of EM getting the trip becomes. He can go with a decent pace, so that shouldn’t be a problem. He is relaxed and looks like a middle distance horse, whether his best trip will be nearer 10f than 12f is difficult to say but Danehill (ROG’s sire) tends to be out-trumped when stamina appears on the dam side (and through Shirley Heights/Darshaan it does), allowing Danehill to get progeny like Westerner and North Light that need a trip. I’d say don’t be put off by Eagle Mountain's likelihood of seeing out 12 furlongs.

Admiralofthefleet (by Danehill, see above) has some chance of staying, but the likes of Soldier Of Fortune, Mahler and Acapulco from the O'Brien camp are certain to.
 
Authorized isn't worth backng so just for fun for me today, Kid Mambo E/W, Anton Chekhov E/W, Archipenko or Soldier of Fortune win bet, keeping my eye on Lucarno too this month.
 
Thought you might like Nick Mordins opinion to chew on then Steve :D

taken from his reports archive after Chester


DOES SOLDIER OF FORTUNE REALLY STAY 12 FURLONGS?

The time that SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (39) clocked to win the Chester Vase was very decent. But I’m inclined to believe that he only lasted the distance thanks to a noticeably slow early pace and the very tight turns of the track.

Soldier Of Fortune is a full brother to Heliostatic who clearly failed to stay the mile and a half in the Irish Derby last year. His dam had no less than ten siblings which raced. She herself failed to stay a mile and a half and so did all her ten siblings despite the fact that one of them was by Galileo (Soldier Of Fortune's sire) and five were by sires whose progeny's average winning distance was as long or longer than Galileo. This being so, I think Soldier Of Fortune should go for the Prix du Jockey Club rather than the Derby.

Having said that, I have to add that Soldier of Fortune did well to win this race as he was probably too far off the pace when the sprint to the line began and looked rather green when asked to go and win his race. I’ve little doubt that he’s a Group 1 horse.

ARABIAN GULF (39) very nearly stole the race by getting first run on Soldier Of Fortune. He raced like an old hand so I suspect he’s never going to run much better than this. That would make him a Group 2 horse and not a Derby winner. Certainly I didn’t feel I was watching a Group 1 horse. I believe he only got so close to the winner because he was enterprisingly ridden.
 
Two-thirds of my overall stake is now on the Authorized at even money. The other third is split fairly evenly between Aqaleem and Eagle Mountain (and Mahler for a small amount). I wouldn’t put people off the much bigger prices available on Mahler, Acapulco and Soldier Of Fortune though.
 
Is Strategic Prince the forgotten horse? Best price 25s and for all the talk about the ground, he did manage third in the Dewhurst on Good To Soft.
 
Totally agree, Gareth. I took 25s EW earlier this morning. I'm very heartened by Gal's remark just above. I'm pretty convinced Archi will stay. I can hear Frankie now shouting as Authorized finds himself toiling in Archipenko's wake:

"Arrivederci Archi!"
 
Originally posted by Ramoth@Jun 2 2007, 01:26 PM
Has anyone got any thoughts about Salford Mill?
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I think he'd prefer faster ground. The trip might be a bit too far. I doubt he can beat Authorized.
 
I've had to go with Authorized, but not a pleasant price.

I've had a little ew on Lucarno, he could be anything and was very impressive last time out. Not certain to get the trip, but his sire was a hard case and he might have the bloodymindedness to get into the picture.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jun 2 2007, 12:28 PM
If Archipenko gets the trip (and that is an if) I think he will be a comfortable winner.
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Archipenko's got chances of getting the trip (but I thought the French Derby was his race). Also am I the only one who thought that Yellowstone finished too close to him last time? Yellowstone is a maiden who hasn't managed to win in five subsequent starts. The form doesn't look great.
 
Originally posted by Griffin+Jun 2 2007, 12:52 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Griffin @ Jun 2 2007, 12:52 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Ramoth@Jun 2 2007, 01:26 PM
Has anyone got any thoughts about Salford Mill?
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I think he'd prefer faster ground. The trip might be a bit too far. I doubt he can beat Authorized. [/b][/quote]
At even money or shorter for Authorized I'm looking for a place instead :laughing: I have taken e/w 33's on Yellowstone hubbys gone for Eagle Mountain (after I decided not to :suspect: ) so now I'm torn between Strategic Prince and Admiral Of The Fleet :laughing:
 
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