The Derby

…almost that much Kri. As for Mystic Meg, when they sacked her she didn’t see it coming… whereas I knew I wouldn't last from the start!... different league.
 
Good stuff Steve, although any old duffer could have picked Authorized, Eagle Mountain and Soldier Of Fortune :P
 
Very impressive Steve. As a stalwart member of the community you deserve your day in the spotlight. Just shut up about Black Jack though, will you??
 
Originally posted by Warbler+Jun 2 2007, 07:17 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ Jun 2 2007, 07:17 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Galileo@Jun 2 2007, 07:07 PM
Incidentally...what was Motivators time performance like in the Derby?
Click to expand...
I had him with a short head of Kris Kin (practically dead heated) I was pleased when I woke the next day to find the sporting press proclaiming a vulnerable horse to be unbeatable. Didn't help me mind you, although I was pretty confident he wouldn't win again, I still backed the wrong one [/b][/quote]
Motivator's time performance in the Derby was a very good one on my figures (129) and considerably better than Kris Kin's. Timeform's timefigure for Motivator was 128, "the best in the race for some years." I can just about accept that someone can decide to oppose such a horse in future races on the ground that he'll go off at a false price but how anyone could be "pretty confident" after such a performance that the horse wouldn't win again is beyond me, I'm afraid, and the fact that he in the event didn't is neither here nor there.

Authorized's time yesterday comes out at a minimum 129 and a maximum 131 on my figures. I'd go with the higher figure but the appropriate going allowance produces a figure for the Woodcote which is slightly higher than I'd expect so I'll probably settle for 129 which means a going allowance very slightly on the minus (i.e. fast) side.
 
Yeah well done Steve, over all enjoyed this thread on the Derby.

Looking ahead and bookies have priced up the King George. Corals Prices:

Authorized evens
Dylan Thomas 6/1
Scorpion 8/1
Red Rocks 8/1
Vengeance Of Rain 8/1
Youmzain 10/1
Mandesha 12/1
Pop Rock 12/1
Delta Blues 16/1
Sir Percy 16/1
Maraahel 25/1
Mount Nelson 25/1
Fusaichi Ho O 33/1
 
It was great to see the emotion showed by Peter after the horse won. I did not have a penny on him (had a couple of sentimental bets inc the third) but it was pretty obvious he was the most likely winner and I am pleased for connections.

I'm not a huge Frankie fan, used to be a very long time ago but had too many personal dealings with him, both on horses and against horses I knew well, and found him too self centred. Just not my cup of tea, but realise he is good for racing, can be fun when things go his way, and is a showman. I know it meant a lot to him to win this. So, congrats all round.

But especially to Peter, who I have the greatest admiration for, and the horse who looked pretty outstanding to my humble eyes.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Jun 3 2007, 12:40 AM
Good stuff Steve, although any old duffer could have picked Authorized, Eagle Mountain and Soldier Of Fortune :P
Click to expand...
:D How true Gareth... well done.
 
Some comeback by PCH - makes you wonder what made him want to move to HK in the first place. Was he just bored? Looking for a new challenge?
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jun 3 2007, 09:32 AM
...over all enjoyed this thread on the Derby.
Click to expand...
...me too Gal. Thanks to you and everyone's great imput, it's almost a pleasure to be on here at times.
 
AUTHORIZED WIN AS GOOD AS GALILEO
E-mail Article Print-Friendly Subscribe to RSS Feed
Post to del.icio.us

By Thomas Deane, PA Sport

Authorized has received glowing recognition from official handicappers following his impressive success in the Vodafone Derby on Saturday.

Peter Chapple-Hyam's star produced a tremendous turn of foot to scoot five lengths clear of runner-up Eagle Mountain when providing Frankie Dettori with his first ever victory in the premier Classic.

Senior British handicapper Phil Smith, along with his Irish and French counterparts, has awarded Authorized a rating of 126 after his Epsom romp - a figure that puts him on a par with 2001 and 2002 scorers Galileo and High Chaparral.

Smith said: "Obviously our assessment is subject to the classification review at the end of the year, but at the moment I have Authorized on 126.

"I've just spoken to the Irish handicapper Mr. O'Gorman and I'm just looking at the French decision now. We've all decided to award the winner a rating of 126.

"That figure has been agreed by the three of us and we've all come up with that independently so it looks pretty solid."

Authorized's rating marks him out as a well above-average winner of the race, confirming the visual impression he made in Saturday's feature.

"The 10-year average for the winner of the race is 123.9, and his rating puts him, at this stage, on the same level as High Chaparral and Galileo," Smith explained.

"Basically, as it stands, his rating is as good as any Derby winner in the last 10 years."
 
I look forward to doing my analysis later in the week.

With Archipenko, Strategic Prince and one or two others failing to run their races, possibly not quite staying, maybe Authorized didn't actually end up beating much. There were 104/105 (ORs) horses only beaten 10 lengths, which, if taken literally, only puts the winner on about 120.
 
The only possible question mark for me would be that there was literally no other horse travelling well 2 furlongs out. Thats a long way out for everything to be struggling. But impossible to seriously crab the winner.
 
Not unknown in a race where there has been a very fast pace Aidan .

Going back into history look at Sir Ivor's Derby - Connaught had them all off the bit bar one three out .
 
Fair enough Ardross but there were plenty of horses out the back (some which DO mentioned) that you would have thought would have travelled better for a long way.
 
There seems to have been something evidently up with Archipenko but considering where Yellowstone finished , you wouldn't have thought he would have been better than scrapping it with Aqaleem and Lucarno .
 
I guess a lot comes down to your pre-conceptions. As someone who's rated Eagle Mountain highly since he ran into Teofilo, and then hacked up in the Beresford, I immediately thought that the form would be strong once I saw him follow Authorized home.

If you were of the opinion that Archipenko and Strategic Prince should have been up there, then I can see why you would look for another angle.
 
I'm not trying to crab the winner. I never do. My only interest is in getting a proper handle on the merit of the form.

When some major players were hailing Oath as a 125 winner I was on the old forum saying I couldn't get him above 118. The form book subsequently proved the latter rating to be more accurate.

I'll actually be very disappointed if the 120 mark ends up being the one I settle for. I started the 'Golden Year for 3yos' thread and I'd rather that view was ultimately proven to be correct.
 
Back
Top