The Derby

Hamm said:
forget about reputations etc etc
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It's not just about his reputation. His RP Trophy run was aweseome, and reads better than Authorized and Motivator's wins. 7/4 is skinny to be fair but if I hadn't played in the race already I would still cover any bet on Jan Vermeer with him.
 
His RP Trophy run was at 2. He has since run at 3, to no near-Derby winning level, and with no excuse. He doesn't look like he has developed massively. I don't see why he should be favourite, let alone the price he is.

I am also not 100% convinced (although concede it is likely) he'll stay if there is a strong pace.

Also, since you mention Motivator and Authorised, they both ran a race before the Derby and looked really impressive. SNA did as well, and didn't look up to much, and had no excuses/bad luck in that run.
 
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Hamm said:
He has since run at 3, to no near-Derby winning level, and with no excuse.
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The excuse being a mile on fast ground in a slowly run race would not suit a son of Montjeu. Forget the hype and he actually ran a pretty sound race. Jan Vermeer and co have had the benefit of running in races that suited them and showed off their talents. We will never see SNA back at a mile.
 
Hamm said:
Also, since you mention Motivator and Authorised, they both ran a race before the Derby and looked really impressive. SNA did as well, and didn't look up to much, and had no excuses/bad luck in that run.
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You can't compare a spin in the Dante against Group 2 opponents with running in a Classic. How would those two have faired in their Guineas?
 
That is no excuse! He was even money favourite, because we were told the quicker ground would suit even better, and his trainer said he was the best miler they've had in years at home.
 
Euronymous said:
You can't compare a spin in the Dante against Group 2 opponents with running in a Classic. How would those two have faired in their Guineas?
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Precisely - they were running in races that was going to give them a much better chance of showing off their ability than (in hindsight) St Nicholas Abbey's Guineas did.
 
Hamm said:
That is no excuse! He was even money favourite, because we were told the quicker ground would suit even better, and his trainer said he was the best miler they've had in years at home.
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You already said you do not listen to trainers - so why use that? You said yourself he was bad value for the Guineas - what did you base that on?
 
Euronymous said:
You can't compare a spin in the Dante against Group 2 opponents with running in a Classic. How would those two have faired in their Guineas?
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You would think both would have been placed at least, or at least run the 'typical' Derby trial in the Guineas, being outpaced before running on strongly. No-one could say SNA looked like he ran any kind of trial for the Derby. In fact, take colours out of the equation, and there is no way he would have been picked out of the race as a possible Derby contender.
 
Hamm said:
You would think both would have been placed at least, or at least run the 'typical' Derby trial in the Guineas, being outpaced before running on strongly. No-one could say SNA looked like he ran any kind of trial for the Derby. In fact, take colours out of the equation, and there is no way he would have been picked out of the race as a possible Derby contender.
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Motivator couldn't beat Oratorio over 10 furlongs and he was woefully outpaced time and time again over a mile. That was Footstepsinthesands Guineas as well, run on a really fast surface.
 
Galileo said:
You already said you do not listen to trainers - so why use that? You said yourself he was bad value for the Guineas - what did you base that on?
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Montjeu's over a mile, and quicker ground. Mostly the fact he ran one good race, and was an absurd price. There were several other credible contenders, and he did definitely not have the profile, imo, of a horse who should be even money favourite for the Guineas.

As regards the Derby, of course if you jump from his RP run to the Derby, he is a fascinating contender. But that hasn't happened. And, whilst I often bet on forgiving a horse 1/2 bad runs, he just looked like not the same horse - didn't travel despite being in the perfect position, and didn't run as a typical 'Derby horse in the Guineas'.

I'm not saying anything stupid like he can't win, just that his price is absurd, and I would have strong doubts that he has trained on.
 
Galileo said:
Motivator couldn't beat Oratorio over 10 furlongs and he was woefully outpaced time and time again over a mile. That was Footstepsinthesands Guineas as well, run on a really fast surface.
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Shall I refer you to the two plodders who were placed that year? :D

Seriously, that was an awful Guineas - the winner won well, but Dubawi ran sideways, and Oratorio wasn't ready.

I just think Oratorio was better than Motivator, not really Motivator lacking pace (I wasn't a fan by the way).
 
Derby winners who ran in the Guineas

Seas the Stars won.
New Approach 2nd.
Sir Percy 2nd.
Generous 4th.
Nashwan won. (1989)
 
Hamm said:
Shall I refer you to the two plodders who were placed that year? :D

Seriously, that was an awful Guineas - the winner won well, but Dubawi ran sideways, and Oratorio wasn't ready.

I just think Oratorio was better than Motivator, not really Motivator lacking pace (I wasn't a fan by the way).
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The reason Dubawi hung was due to the fast ground - forgive me for thinking that might have had a similar effect (if not shown in the same manner as hanging) on a son of Montjeu.

Those two plodders still managed to beat Dubawi and Oratorio on the day which in itself highlights that horses who get well beat in the Guineas can still go on to prove themselves top class when conditions suit much better in the future.
 
Hold on a second - since we are going on the fact nearly everything O'Brien says is true, didn't he say before the RP trophy that they were worried about ease in the ground for him? I didn't hear anyone else before the Guineas suggest fast ground would be a problem, so why should it suddenly explain a defeat?
 
I thought he looked unbalanced and ungainly when they really quickened up - I would put that down to the ground at the mile trip. Shoot me for thinking a son of Montjeu would appreciate a bit of an ease or a trip.

I am not making excuses for his Guineas defeat - he was not up to it - but I expect we will see (and will have to) an altogether different St Nicholas Abbey on Saturday week in a race that will provide him with a much more suitable opportunity to display his true worth.
 
I'm not having a go at you! Just saying that very few thought the ground a negative for the Guineas, but when he didn't perform it suddenly becomes a plausible excuse!

I agree with the needing to be much better part of your second sentence, and that's why he is a ridiculous price at 7/4.
 
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I agree with Hamm - His price is absurd.

Everyone's picking holes in Hamm's argument but nobody is putting anything other than a 2yo performance and hearsay up as a reason for him being the price he is. Sea the Stars won the guineas comfortably yet was 11/4 on the day for the derby and St Nic is 7/4? Anyone backing him at that price needs their heads examining in my opinion. I think he's just as much a doubtful stayer as Sea the Stars was but is not quick enough to win over a mile.

If he was with any other stable he would be 5/6-1. Imho he will not win the Derby - In fact i believe he'll be lucky to finish in the first three.
 
I don't think everyone disagrees with Hamm-far from it, I'd say.

St Nic's profile would be a little unusal for a Derby winner although Generous did get stuffed in the Guineas (won his maiden over 5f and Grp 3 over 6f as a 2yr old !) before winning at Epsom, the Curragh and the King George.

Maybe Aidan had a touch of Hendersonitus in that he wanted to keep his good horses apart and there wheren't enough opportunities unless he used the Guineas. Perhaps St Nic should have gone the Derrinstown/ Dante route, if he had won at either of those the 7/4 would be justified (nearly)
 
Whilst I agree he's not value at 7/4 I think his "poor" Guineas run is turning into a massive red herring. How would a normal Derby 12f horse run in an average Newmarket classic? If the race was run at a decent clip he would be a tad outpaced and run on throught tired horses at the end - in a somewhat eye-catching manner. I have little doubt that's what would have happended if they hadn't gone such a crawl this year. Instead the pace setters weren't slowing down as much so SNA's run wasn't as noteworthy.
 
Sheikh said:
I don't think everyone disagrees with Hamm-far from it, I'd say.
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I agree - I do not think there is much disagree other than the fact some can see where the improvement is going to come from. I have backed SNA for the Derby shortly before his Beresford Stakes win (I mentioned him positively before his debut) at a small enough stake at decent prices - I never backed him for the Guineas.
 
Euronymous said:
Whilst I agree he's not value at 7/4 I think his "poor" Guineas run is turning into a massive red herring. How would a normal Derby 12f horse run in an average Newmarket classic? If the race was run at a decent clip he would be a tad outpaced and run on throught tired horses at the end - in a somewhat eye-catching manner. I have little doubt that's what would have happended if they hadn't gone such a crawl this year. Instead the pace setters weren't slowing down as much so SNA's run wasn't as noteworthy.
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Derby winners who ran in the Guineas

Seas the Stars won.
New Approach 2nd.
Sir Percy 2nd.
Generous 4th.
Nashwan won. (1989)
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Euro, I think the true red herring is the pace of the Guineas. First of all, it wasn't that slow. Secondly, he was in the perfect position to take advantage of a slow pace. Thirdly, how come the first and third (too tentatively ridden) came from the back if the pace was that slow, as they would theoretically have been at a rather large disadvantage? And lastly, a pace that was even slower helped him to win impressively in the RP Trophy.
 
The first and third in the Guineas are high class milers - the others were not, so they were able to win and place despite the race being run against them.

The RP Trophy may not have been run that fast but it was on slower ground and the stamina requirement for that race as a 2yo would make it a 10f race at least for a 3yo.
 
I think this year's Guineas was a pretty decent one, and arguably the hottest trial for the Derby.

I'm quite happy with the bet I took about SNA just after Newmarket.
 
SNA's gunieas run was very disappointing to backers and connections (late big money indicated their expectations). Its as simple as that reagrdless of any subsequent revisionism

I think Hamm has summarised it pretty well so far
 
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