The Derby

As would we all! Can't see him not either winning or taking up two places if two of his make it to the stalls. I'd like him, to, anyway - yeah, I know, most of the forum's focussed on AOB most of the time, but you really can't take away his phenomenal, consistent ability. I don't know that he has plans to ever do anything else, but I'm sure he'll still be training Classics winners when he's being wheeled to the gallops in his bath chair! (Strangely, I just can't picture him getting older - he seems to have looked the way he is forever!)
 
Complaining about focusing on O'Brien is a bit like complaining about focusing on Nicholls/Mullins through the winter. They are by far the most dominate yards.
 
Not according to the RP.

Crisford confirms Rewilding for Derby

By Jon Lees 10:01AM 27 MAY 2010
REWILDING will be supplemented for the Investec Derby, Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford confirmed on Thursday, and will probably be ridden at Epsom by Frankie Dettori.
The colt, who joined Mahmood Al Zarooni after starting the campaign with Andre Fabre, made an impressive British debut when landing the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood and is a 10-1 chance with bookmakers.
Crisford told Epsom's Breakfast with the Stars event on Thursday: "We are definitely going to supplement Rewilding. He was very impressive when he won at Goodwood and we think he ticks all the boxes. He has a great temperament, he appears to be bombproof, he definitely stays a mile and a half and he has plenty of class as well.
"The big thing with him is he seems to be improving. He took his race at Goodwood really well, he handled the track and the undulations so we go into Epsom full of hope."
Crisford said a decision over riding arrangements would emerge after Dettori has ridden the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Al Zir on Friday morning but the jockey was likely to stick with Rewilding.
"It's quite likely that Frankie will stay on Rewilding," Crisford added. "He gelled really well with him at Goodwood. I think Frankie wants to have a sit on Al Zir anyway tomorrow and after he has ridden him then we will be a little bit wiser."
Crisford said Chabal would be left among the five-day Derby acceptors but would need rain to run, while Simon De Montfort remained more likely to head to the Prix du Jockey Club.
 
Aidan on his team, ominous for the rest of them if Jan V was only half baked.

"It is difficult to say which of them will run at Epsom, and I don't want to mislead anybody.
"St Nicholas Abbey was always going to the (2000) Guineas and the Derby, and that has not changed.
"Midas Touch was always down for the Derrinstown and then the intention was to go to the Derby, while Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer have the option of either France or Epsom.
"St Nicholas Abbey and Midas Touch are the two definites (for Epsom) at the moment so long as all is well. Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer are both possible.
"Cape Blanco was just ready to start when he went to York for the Dante, where they went an even gallop on fast ground.
"He won very easily and idled a bit in front. He was very sore after the race, but that was just a superficial cut really.
"Jan Vermeer was very impressive at the Curragh (on Sunday), it was a rush to get him there and he was just ready to start."
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I would guess that Epsom will be too soon for JV if they had to rush to get him to the Curragh for the Galinule Stakes, and that his most likely option is the Irish Derby.
 
I cannot believe St Nicholas Abbey is now 7/4 with some firms!

You would need to be on drugs.
 
Weird - I read otherwise - sorry for the mislead!

Hamm said:
Not according to the RP.

Crisford confirms Rewilding for Derby

By Jon Lees 10:01AM 27 MAY 2010
REWILDING will be supplemented for the Investec Derby, Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford confirmed on Thursday, and will probably be ridden at Epsom by Frankie Dettori.
The colt, who joined Mahmood Al Zarooni after starting the campaign with Andre Fabre, made an impressive British debut when landing the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood and is a 10-1 chance with bookmakers.
Crisford told Epsom's Breakfast with the Stars event on Thursday: "We are definitely going to supplement Rewilding. He was very impressive when he won at Goodwood and we think he ticks all the boxes. He has a great temperament, he appears to be bombproof, he definitely stays a mile and a half and he has plenty of class as well.
"The big thing with him is he seems to be improving. He took his race at Goodwood really well, he handled the track and the undulations so we go into Epsom full of hope."
Crisford said a decision over riding arrangements would emerge after Dettori has ridden the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Al Zir on Friday morning but the jockey was likely to stick with Rewilding.
"It's quite likely that Frankie will stay on Rewilding," Crisford added. "He gelled really well with him at Goodwood. I think Frankie wants to have a sit on Al Zir anyway tomorrow and after he has ridden him then we will be a little bit wiser."
Crisford said Chabal would be left among the five-day Derby acceptors but would need rain to run, while Simon De Montfort remained more likely to head to the Prix du Jockey Club.
Click to expand...
 
But they said the same before the Guineas. I could never, ever go on what a trainer/jockey etc says, and his run in the Guineas would rule out me backing him at 7/4, even if he had won the RP Trophy by 10 lengths.

Do you think there's the possiblity they will make the same mistake as last year and try and ensure their first choice runner has the best chance of winning it?
 
They generally get it right about their horses - I expect him to be very hard to beat in the Derby. The Guineas form is begining to work out very well - and he was just 2 lengths of CC over a mile on fast ground - not sure there are many in the Derby field that could have done that.

My biggest concern about SNA is the track as he did not look to appreciate the Newmarket dip.

Hamm said:
But they said the same before the Guineas. I could never, ever go on what a trainer/jockey etc says, and his run in the Guineas would rule out me backing him at 7/4, even if he had won the RP Trophy by 10 lengths.

Do you think there's the possiblity they will make the same mistake as last year and try and ensure their first choice runner has the best chance of winning it?
Click to expand...
 
I see your point, but that Canford Cliffs was quite different to the one we saw win in Ireland.

Yes, they do get it right quite often, but for me he would have needed to ran much, much better in the Guineas to justify that price, when several of his own stablemates look to have better chances.
 
How often would you get the winner of the Derrinstown and the Dante at the prices they are now (on betfair anyway). When it comes to this time of year if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's an f'n duck. In other words what you see is what you get. ( ahem CC excluded :o) Two impressive winners of proven trials and a small unplaced horse in the Guineas is hot fav...beats me.

Watch St Nic piss in now :D
 
I agree, but you have to bear in mind the likelihood at least 1 of them going to France.

What price would SNA be if no-one from Ballydoyle had uttered a word about him post-Guineas, and had seen what most saw in his Guineas run? I reckon around 6-8/1.
 
But my point is what is the money following? It's not his Guineas run, but what those inside of Ballydoyle think of him.

What would you have him at?
 
Hamm said:
But my point is what is the money following? It's not his Guineas run, but what those inside of Ballydoyle think of him.

What would you have him at?
Click to expand...

I would imagine people are backing him based on his two year old form, his trainers comments and because the yard looks to be dominating the race so they have a very good idea as to the pecking order.

As regards the price - I am useless at pricing them up so wouldn't have a clue. I just wouldn't like to be laying him at the 6-8/1 your suggesting.
 
General concensus seems to be that it will be Cape B going to France. Why I don't know. When was the last time a Dante winner took the French Derby route. Some people have doubts about his stamina ( not me) so that would be a reason but as Grey says if Jan V is only coming to hand the easier option would be France to preserve his unbeaten record. They know he handles a cut too. Cape B seemed to like the quick ground at York.
 
Hamm said:
I see your point, but that Canford Cliffs was quite different to the one we saw win in Ireland.
Click to expand...

I've seen this statement banded about (Not just yourself Hamm) a lot since CC's guineas win but Dick Turpin beat him twice and Makfi beat him comfortably and neither of those two were in the Irish race. I personally do not think he improved at all to win at the Curragh. The only difference about the races was that he pulled for his head in the English Guineas because of the slow early pace. A lot has been made of his turn of foot but I thought Makfi's was simply better... I'll be backing the French horse when they meet again - I backed CC in the English version by the way.

Back to the Derby thread i've said repeatedly I think there's every chance St Nic hasn't trained on because of his pedigree profile and he didn't run like a stayer at Newmarket. The ground is looking like it will be quick come Derby day so I would want to be against him again as I was in the Guineas. If Jan Vermeer turns up he will carry my money as he has the right profile any way you look at it and has no real holes in his form or concerns
 
Fair enough Aragorn - I wouldn't be 100% certain how the rematch would go, but I do believe Canford Cliffs improved because he settled better - any horse that does that is almost certain to improve.

I just watched the Guineas again ... forget about reputations etc etc ... SNA doesn't look anything, neither a miler nor a stayer. A decent horse, yes, but not a horse who will improve for being stepped up or down in trip.

And, what struck me watching it again was how ridiculous O'Brien's excuses were regarding the pace - he was in the perfect place to benefit from this, especially in comparison with Makfi and CC.

I believe this is the worst value 7/4 shot you will ever see for a classic; I said the same when he was evens for the Guineas and put him up as a massive place lay.
 
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