The Derby

Sheikh said:
I agree, in fact the whole Derby market is based on knee jerk reactions.
Anytime a possible winner hits a ridiculous price it's worth taking a bit.
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And for all the "monsoons" of money for JV from the "very good sources" SNA has only gone out a point and a half with some bookies.
 
What is he on Betfair though (I can't check) - that's where any real drift will be seen. I can't imagine he'd drift by more than you've said even if he were all but ruled out by O'Brien.
 
Never seen betfair so Volatile about a big race .

Jv is 4.1
St Nic 5.4
Cape B 12 (32s yesterday)
Midas 9.4 (16s about an hr ago)
 
5.4 to back (£85) 5.5 to lay (£50). You could say he's only a point and a half bigger, or you could say his price has more than doubled.
 
davidjohnson said:
5.4 to back (£85) 5.5 to lay (£50). You could say he's only a point and a half bigger, or you could say his price has more than doubled.
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Fair point - I was referring to the bookmakers that were still around the 2/1 mark for the horse and now he is out to 3/1 with them or just a bit bigger.
 
Sheikh said:
Never seen betfair so Volatile about a big race .

Jv is 4.1
St Nic 5.4
Cape B 12 (32s yesterday)
Midas 9.4 (16s about an hr ago)
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Absolutely ridiculous. The market for this race is similar to the Gold Cup one. I seem to remember Taranis being sliced into 16s or 20s for the Gold Cup when he won some tinpot race in January. Form that entitled him to be 66/1 if with any other trainer. Midas Touch and Cape Blano have as much chance as Black Bear Island did last year - no fecking chance. The former has no form and the latter won a terrible Dante.
 
Nothing ridicuous about it at all.

Have you seen the Gallinule run from Jan Vermeer - he looks the prototype Derby horse, and doesn't seem to have any Montjeu quirks about him - quite the opposite. Striking looking animal.

I would have it between Jan Vermeer, with Rewilding and possibly Cape Blanco (if he runs) also going close.
 
Quite what makes the Dante 'terrible' I've no idea. 3 horses well clear in an excellent time (only half a second slower than Sariska).
 
Clear of what? Chabal plainly was not himself that day and the Stoute horse ran very green. No way is that Derby winning form for me.
 
Rewilding was impressive at Goodwood, and is the only horse in the race that might trouble whatever Ballydoyle run, but his opposition was a lot poorer than that beaten by Cape Blanco.
 
Euronymous said:
Clear of what? Chabal plainly was not himself that day and the Stoute horse ran very green. No way is that Derby winning form for me.
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what has got "Derby winning" form though..you have dismissed MT out of hand but at least that one has shown potential..especially with improvement to come over further and with cobwebs blown away

what is it you looking for?..a 128/130 performance before the race to make it easy to spot winner :)
 
EC1 said:
what has got "Derby winning" form though..you have dismissed MT out of hand but at least that one has shown potential..especially with improvement to come over further and with cobwebs blown away
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Midas Touch has been beaten twice by Jan Vermeer. I just can't have him at around 10s - he should be double that price.
 
Euronymous said:
Midas Touch has been beaten twice by Jan Vermeer. I just can't have him at around 10s - he should be double that price.
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that was last year though..you talk as if nothing happens between 2 & 3...not saying MT is the Derby winner biut you dismissed him very easily

fwiw ..the only horse that has impressed me visually is JV...MT did nothing wrong in a decent time on comeback..I could see them finishing 1-2 in the Derby.

I'm waiting for the day..but will be backing JV at this moment

are you going for JV as well?
 
Euronymous said:
I took 7/2 this afternoon as a cover bet.
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i don't trust AOB to change his mind where he runs him..it will only take a..not shown sparkle ...re JV and he's out..a weeks a long time in racing :)

just on what a Derby profile looks like..JV fits the bill imo..I can easily visualise him winning..nothing else gives me that feel
 
I thought the same last year about Fame & Glory, could not see him getting beat. So stakes this year are relatively small.
 
I certainly didnt....

I know its easy to say now, but i was baffled that STS was not seen as a middle dostance horse that had the class to win the guineas

Unlike....

Bit annoyed that missed ive missed the boat on JV now
 
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Just thinking about the Fame And Glory/Sea The Stars Derby build up - that seems like yonks ago already and its only a year.
 
clivex said:
Should be racing against each other this year too
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the good old days eh Clive?

some of the clashes we could have had over the last 10 years:cool:..some of those 3yo's hadn't reached their full potential either...how much would you love to see a horse like STS run as a 4yo?

dreaming on
 
Agree gus

but not good old days EC is it? Been this way for too long

billionaires who just have to retire horses to stud because they need the money so very badly
 
clivex said:
Agree gus

but not good old days EC is it? Been this way for too long

billionaires who just have to retire horses to stud because they need the money so very badly
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yes it has really..its a shame its that way..better be careful or Grassy will come on rubbing in how the NH is so much better in this respect..which it is of course
 
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