The Derby

Hamm said:
Euro, I think the true red herring is the pace of the Guineas. First of all, it wasn't that slow. Secondly, he was in the perfect position to take advantage of a slow pace. Thirdly, how come the first and third (too tentatively ridden) came from the back if the pace was that slow, as they would theoretically have been at a rather large disadvantage? And lastly, a pace that was even slower helped him to win impressively in the RP Trophy.
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Of the thousands of words I've read about St Nicholas Abbey, these some him and the Guineas up by far the best I think.
 
SNA's gunieas run was very disappointing to backers and connections (late big money indicated their expectations). Its as simple as that reagrdless of any subsequent revisionism

I think Hamm has summarised it pretty well so far
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... but they have also backed up their subsequent revisionism with big money.

I want to be in the Hamm and Clive camp, it seems the logical place to be, but the consistant confidence from insiders in SNA is driving me away. It's one of those awkward situations that were he a 7/2 shot, which, on the face of it, is probably shorter than he deserves to be, I'd happily walk away, but when he goes a really stupid price you sort of feel they can't be that wrong, can they.
 
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Sheikh said:
I don't think everyone disagrees with Hamm-far from it, I'd say.

St Nic's profile would be a little unusal for a Derby winner although Generous did get stuffed in the Guineas (won his maiden over 5f and Grp 3 over 6f as a 2yr old !) before winning at Epsom, the Curragh and the King George.

Maybe Aidan had a touch of Hendersonitus in that he wanted to keep his good horses apart and there wheren't enough opportunities unless he used the Guineas. Perhaps St Nic should have gone the Derrinstown/ Dante route, if he had won at either of those the 7/4 would be justified (nearly)
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my memory might be wrong but didn't Geneorus win the Dewhurst at about 20/1..so also won at 7f as 2yo.

no one has yet answered my timing at home query..how can AOB know from timing from anything bar a full race that SNA is up to his best milers times..and if that is true then he was a massive flop in the guineas as AOB stated he was better than Henrythenavigator over a mile with his timings statement.

I doubt he was able to show his best with how the guineas was run..SNA needed an end to end gallop that made the others come back to him..as it was he was expecetd to make ground on horses with petrol left..check out F&G + New Approach when they win over 10f..its all out from the start to empty the oppo out..the guineas wasn't that type of race..coming from a long way back for a stamina horse like SNA was a physical impossiblity there.

I'm not making a case for SNA..but his run in the guineas was the best a horse with his stamina profile could be expected to produce..thsoe that did come from the back were speedier horses.

The RP trophy looked good..he did show some speed..that doesn't mean that now he is a 3yo he will show that same speed.

At his current odds he is rank bad value..if he wins ..nice..but anyone backing him at those odds will be losing over time..he isn't an automatic throw out because there are still doubts there..to me the guineas was a race he could not win..so ignore that run..and we still are gambling on a race from last November being the top form...you are gambling on the fact that he appeasr not to have grown..others passed him now on that front?

so even without the guineas run..there are lots of ifs..which themselves make him a 5/1+ shot
 
Melendez said:
... but they have also backed up their subsequent revisionism with big money.

I want to be in the Hamm and Clive camp, it seems the logical place to be, but the consistant confidence from insiders in SNA is driving me away. It's one of those awkward situations that were he a 7/2 shot, which, on the face of it, is probably shorter than he deserves to be, I'd happily walk away, but when he goes a really stupid price you sort of feel they can't be that wrong, can they.
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they were in the guineas
 
Speaking at 12.45pm on Friday, trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "Johnny rode St Nicholas Abbey this morning and felt that the colt might not have shown thesame sparkle as he did when he rode him on Tuesday morning.
"Consequently, he won't be making up his mind about what he will ride in the Derby until the middle of next week."
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Cape Blanco into 9/1 betfair also, backed him yesterday at 30s. On him and midas win and place I'm leaving it at that.

Jan Vermeer the danger.
 

Here we go....... :):rolleyes:

Cape Blanco will be their French Derby horse. He's got plenty of pace and the trip is perfect. I reckon the other three will go to Epsom....
 
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Aragorn said:
Here we go....... :):rolleyes:

Cape Blanco will be their French Derby horse. He's got plenty of pace and the trip is perfect. I reckon the other three will go to Epsom....
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You could argue the merits of him or Jan going to France till the cows come home but when I saw 29/1 about the Dante winner for the Derby I had to have me some.
 
Speaking at 12.45pm on Friday, trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "Johnny rode St Nicholas Abbey this morning and felt that the colt might not have shown thesame sparkle as he did when he rode him on Tuesday morning.
"Consequently, he won't be making up his mind about what he will ride in the Derby until the middle of next week."
Speaking at 12.45pm on Friday, trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "Johnny rode St Nicholas Abbey this morning and felt that the colt might not have shown thesame sparkle as he did when he rode him on Tuesday morning.
"Consequently, he won't be making up his mind about what he will ride in the Derby until the middle of next week."

Speaking at 12.45pm on Friday, trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "Johnny rode St Nicholas Abbey this morning and felt that the colt might not have shown thesame sparkle as he did when he rode him on Tuesday morning.
"Consequently, he won't be making up his mind about what he will ride in the Derby until the middle of next week."
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Hmmm

I wonder if the "lack of sparkle" came before the doubts or after?

Cant help thinking that he will be on JV now....
 
My take on the Derby at the moment is this;

St Nicholas Abbey has the form to win it based on his 2-y-o form, but there are doubts about whether he can reproduce it at present.

There are a handful of horses with the potential to improve to that sort of level under the Derby conditions, chiefly O'Brien's other 3 and Rewilding.

Coordinated Cut will improve on his Dante running, but as the trainer suggests I think more to the tune of 7 or 8 lb, than the 12/14 that will probably be needed to win a Derby.
 
davidjohnson said:
My take on the Derby at the moment is this;

St Nicholas Abbey has the form to win it based on his 2-y-o form, but there are doubts about whether he can reproduce it at present.

There are a handful of horses with the potential to improve to that sort of level under the Derby conditions, chiefly O'Brien's other 3 and Rewilding.

Coordinated Cut will improve on his Dante running, but as the trainer suggests I think more to the tune of 7 or 8 lb, than the 12/14 that will probably be needed to win a Derby.
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Would agree with most of that.

Have done a bit of an about turn on Rewilding - do you think the 10/1 looks quite big DJ?
 
I think it's a bit too big but only by a couple of points or so. I think he's the one horse you could take from a trial and think he's sure to relish the extra yardage of the Derby trip.
 
Sky Bet spokesman Richard Horner said: "We have seen strong money for two of Aidan O'Brien's horses this morning from good sources - Jan Vermeer and Cape Blanco. This coupled with the downbeat comments coming from Ballydoyle about the work St Nicholas Abbey did recently has resulted in a drift for him.
"We now have Jan Vermeer and St Nicholas Abbey as 11/4 joint favourites while Cape Blanco is 8/1 from 10s."
So far O'Brien has only committed St Nicholas Abbey and Leopardstown Trial winner Midas Touch to the Epsom Classic, with plans for Jan Vermeer and Dante winner Cape Blanco still to be confirmed.
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'From good sources' - I really don't believe this rubbish. Anyone with any suggestion of being in any way clued up with this mob have their business on the phone turned away and restricted to tenners through the net. There really must be better ways to earn a living that be a bookmakers spokesperson surely.
 
davidjohnson said:
'From good sources' - I really don't believe this rubbish. Anyone with any suggestion of being in any way clued up with this mob have their business on the phone turned away and restricted to tenners through the net. There really must be better ways to earn a living that be a bookmakers spokesperson surely.
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I agree, in fact the whole Derby market is based on knee jerk reactions.
Anytime a possible winner hits a ridiculous price it's worth taking a bit.
 
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