The Derby

It is hardly a new situation though. Many of the leading horses of the 70s and 80s retired after their 3yo season.

None of Nijinsky, Roberto, Grundy, Troy or Shergar raced at four.
 
No one said otherwise, but is still crap...

Also, flat racing probably needs to reach out to the public more now (as a sport rather than drinking event) than it did back then, when it was one of the only games in town. Horse breeding is not a spectator sport...except for pervs perhaps
 
Galileo said:
Agreed - a bizarre statement. Far more horses kept in training these days.
Click to expand...


1960 ST PADDY
1963 - RELKO
1967 - ROYAL PALACE
1972 - ROBERTO
1974 - SNOW KNIGHT

these Derby winners weren't all whipped off to stud..so its hardly a bizarre statement..comment to Clive were tongue in cheek..and I was referring to Derby winners more than anything else..not really looking at how many horses are in training or owt
 
Last edited:
Rewilding's time was very slow but in what looks an incredibly weak renewal (more than people are willing to admit, it's rivalling Sir Percy for me) he could improve and play a part I think.

I just think St Nicholas Abbey is the most likely winner, mainly due to lack of opposition more than anything else.
 
EC1 said:
1960 ST PADDY
1963 - RELKO
1967 - ROYAL PALACE
1972 - ROBERTO
1974 - SNOW KNIGHT

these Derby winners weren't all whipped off to stud..so its hardly a bizarre statement..comment to Clive were tongue in cheek..and I was referring to Derby winners more than anything else..not really looking at how many horses are in training or owt
Click to expand...

You missed out 1969 Blakeney and 1971 Mill Reef both were kept in training .

Lots weren't though !
 
Fair play to AOB for his contribution to the ML today. He couldn't have stated the position more clearly.

I'm reading between the lines myself a bit but it sounded very much to me like we won't see Jan Vermeer at Epsom unless SNA loses a leg. I came online to top-up on SNA half-expecting to get 9/2 or more, if C4's betting was anything to go by. Best price 3/1. Who's muddying the waters more: AOB or C4??

AOB: the plan was always for SNA and MT to go to Epsom and JV to go to France. JV will only go to Epsom if SNA isn't right. (I'd read into that that SNA and MT are the two best in the yard ahead of JV.) SNA is "usually head and shoulders ahead of everything else" and "worked every bit as well as MT".

Then he told us MT's jockey felt the horse had improved a lot since its last run. I think these two are the two they fancy most and even if JV does end up at Epsom MT will be better fancied within the yard, unless Murtagh takes over the ride. That would maybe cloud the issue for me.

Here's what I think. SNA's previous serious was slightly overdone - he was reportedly incredible that day - and that latest piece of work came too soon. He'll probably sparkle again in his next piece and we'll be back to where we should be.
 
Your reading a lot between the lines . I wish they had asked was the type of gallop they did yesterday different to previous gallops...longer for example. As in the further they went the stronger MT was getting and the less it suited St Nic.

Other thing that interested me was he clearly referred to whether anything else would go to France with Nelson (he doesn't count the pacemakers and pretty sure one will go anyway same at first sight to Epsom) If they reckon Nelson can win at France I'd expect the 4 others to go to Epsom, 3 others if St Nic doesn't go. The gushing praise for St Nic's past work was ominous for his supporters imo.


Jan Vermeer and Cape Blanco had the possibility of going to France too so if there was any doubt about St Nicholas Abbey there is a big chance Jan Vermeer might go to Epsom as well.
Click to expand...

Does this mean JV is still more likely to go to France than CB. I always felt it would be unusual to send the Dante winner to the French Derby.

In conclusion St Nic, Cape B and Jan are doubts for Epsom as opposed to just Jan and Cap B yesterday morning....clear as mud
 
Last edited:
I really hate all this talk about gallops and work. If SNA misses the race because of this bullshit I will be really miffed.

EDIT: Reason's to be cheerful - Brough Scott (mr Denman is gone at the same before the GC) iS AGAINST sna. Happy days.
 
Last edited:
So Johnny Murtagh tells us for months that St Nicholas Abbey would have to have a leg drop off not to win the Derby, then a week it's reported he hasn't made a decision between him and Jan Vermeer?

Righto Johnny.
 
My gut feeling is that if Murtagh isn't riding him he won't be running. I'd expect the next report to be either a spectacular gallop or a scoped badly/bloods wrong alert.
 
Sheikh said:
The gushing praise for St Nic's past work was ominous for his supporters imo.
Click to expand...

I agree - if he lines up for the race it won't worry me but if he misses the race I would have my doubts for his future.

His next piece of work won't be serious - this was the week that the final questions would have been really asked.
 
Even though I fancy JV I don't think it has taken a lot of money to shorten him from 8s to 3s since last Sunday.Might be a cheap lay to back.
 
I think it massively dangerous to dismiss a horse's chance on the basis of his trial being run in a poor time whilst failing to acknowledge that there was a lack of pace in the race which made achieving a good time impossible. If anything, it provides scope for further improvement as Rewilding looks sure to relish a truly-run mile and a half.

Regarding the Dante, I don't compile tfigs personally but timeform gave Cape Blanco 123.
 
I wonder if we're getting to a place where Godolphin animals are starting to be backable simply because punters are giving them the cold shoulder. It's the only explanation surely for Rewilding being the price he is compared to Workforce and Bullet Train.
 
davidjohnson said:
I think it massively dangerous to dismiss a horse's chance on the basis of his trial being run in a poor time whilst failing to acknowledge that there was a lack of pace in the race which made achieving a good time impossible. If anything, it provides scope for further improvement as Rewilding looks sure to relish a truly-run mile and a half.

Regarding the Dante, I don't compile tfigs personally but timeform gave Cape Blanco 123.
Click to expand...

I could also give CB a 123..the only problem then would be that Elzaam would get a rating of 110..which I would like very much as its only a maiden race..some decent opportunities there..Fareer's race would also be rated 12lbs higher than it should be.

Thats possible of course but it would mean that of the 24 horses involved in the first 4 in each race...11 had run above their marks..5 would have actually run 10lb above their marks..thats highly unlikely.

I think its a case of overrating myself..just my view..wonder what DO thinks?
 
using the last two furlong time..with Pru's excellent formula gives

Fareer = 100.43%
Cape Blanco = 102.80%

which means that Fareer's is a true run race and Cape Blanco's isn't as truly run...which makes a 123 highly unlikely for Cape
 
Back
Top