The Derby

My new time ratings at 1m 2f 61y are:

Sariska 110
Cape Blanco 108 (+wfa 15 = 123)

Ordinarily, this would have me thinking CB was impossible to knock out of the frame at Epsom but he's well down the Ballydoyle pecking order by the look of it.
 
EC1 said:
Going: 40lb per mile fast = FIRM
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I don't know how to make the comparison with your method but my going allowance (based on Fareer's race) was -0.24s per furlong, which would be fast ground.

Would that be 1.92s per mile - just over 26lbs?
 
Desert Orchid said:
My new time ratings at 1m 2f 61y are:

Sariska 110
Cape Blanco 108 (+wfa 15 = 123)

Ordinarily, this would have me thinking CB was impossible to knock out of the frame at Epsom but he's well down the Ballydoyle pecking order by the look of it.
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missed Sariska off my post ..added it now.

..without wfa i get Cape Blanco on 104..he ran 0.5 seconds lower than Sariska..I don't add the wfa scale like you..because in speed points its only worth 6 speed points..because I found that 3yo are only 0.4 seconds shy of maturity in May..I don't add the wfa scale per se as I don't find time differences equate to it.

another discussion point on other thread i think :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't know how to make the comparison with your method but my going allowance (based on Fareer's race) was -0.24s per furlong, which would be fast ground.

Would that be 1.92s per mile - just over 26lbs?
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I remember reading that the Ground was really firm at York DO..which I agreed with when made figures

if you look at Fareer's time..96.42..knock a second off to equate to old distance = 95.42..its not much slower than Concer Un's course record there of 94.81

Concer Un's time was on rock hard going that day..Dante ground not much slower.

that was it..AOB said horse was sore which i put down to going being so fast
 
I wouldn't get caught up in comparing Fareer's time with the likes of Concer Un.

Lots of factors go into making conditions conducive to fast times. They'd also have been racing into the breeze for longer in the longer races.

At the end of the day, -0.24spf is fast ground. The fact you work to class pars while I work to standard times will always mean the going allowance will vary but we'll ultimately get something close to agreement on overall level of performance.

I do include wfa but I'm wary that some horses are more mature than others. The alternative is not to include it, which I sometimes do in the races where 3yos meet older horses, particularly in handicaps. I do it alongside my normal way just to see the difference.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't get caught up in comparing Fareer's time with the likes of Concer Un.

Lots of factors go into making conditions conducive to fast times. They'd also have been racing into the breeze for longer in the longer races.

At the end of the day, -0.24spf is fast ground. The fact you work to class pars while I work to standard times will always mean the going allowance will vary but we'll ultimately get something close to agreement on overall level of performance.

I do include wfa but I'm wary that some horses are more mature than others. The alternative is not to include it, which I sometimes do in the races where 3yos meet older horses, particularly in handicaps. I do it alongside my normal way just to see the difference.
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i don't use class pars with these DO..just traditional carry on..horse weight ..similar to topspeed method

both give about -0.33 per furlong

On class par method..it gave same ground to within a couple of pound.
 
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milo said:
SNA out to 5-1 on BF.
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I think that price suggests no decision has been made on the horse - if connections were swaying to not running him with any degree of confidence surely he would be much bigger than that. Similar case with Yeats before his Derby - he went in and out to much bigger prices if memory serves me correctly.
 
Anyone else a little worried that Jan Vermeer might just be having this race come too soon for him? They gave him nearly the latest possible trial and now turning out in two weeks time. I still like him alot but not sure we will see the best of him until the Irish Derby.
 
Galileo said:
Anyone else a little worried that Jan Vermeer might just be having this race come too soon for him? They gave him nearly the latest possible trial and now turning out in two weeks time. I still like him alot but not sure we will see the best of him until the Irish Derby.
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Aidan seems to worry a lot about ruining horses by not doing the right thing for them so I'd say you could be right.
 
Aidans horses always seem better by the time the Irish Derby comes around. FAG, Dylan Thomas, SOF , etc.
 
SNA out to 6-1. He has been 7-2 all winter , and with less than a week to go he is nearly twice the price.
 
Was it ever 6/1? Betfair are going 11/2. After commission that will be closer to 5/1. Best elsewhere 4/1. Those going NRNB won't offer better than 3/1.
 
Whilst everyone continues to go on about what price St Nicholas Abbey, nobody seems to have noticed how ridiculously short at 5/2 Jan Vermeer is.
 
davidjohnson said:
Whilst everyone continues to go on about what price St Nicholas Abbey, nobody seems to have noticed how ridiculously short at 5/2 Jan Vermeer is.
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He is pretty short - but in fairness he is a Group 1 winner (beating the likes of Midas Touch and French 1000 Guineas placed horse out of sight) and made a pleasing comeback at The Curragh. Guaranteed to get the trip, handle any ground, no quirks - he looks to have by far the most solid credentials. Not sure how much closer in the betting he should be to a Lingfield Derby Trial winner and a maiden (with stamina doubts) who was well beaten in the Dante having looked to find the ground on the fast side that day.

Like I said, by big concern is that he might be a little rushed in getting him to this race.
 
Workforce isnt a maiden

Not quite sure why being a lingfield derby trial winner is a negative until we really know that value of that race. The Problem I have with BT is the ambivalence conections seem to have about his chances

Its a very hard race to weigh up.
 
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If I'm backing something at 5/2, I don't want to be having any big concern. Agree Bullet Train too is very short, and whilst I think time will prove the Dante strong form, I'll swerve Workforce at single figures. Coordinated Cut is a big price who I think was sent for home too soon and Rewilding is the other one I'd back.
 
davidjohnson said:
If I'm backing something at 5/2, I don't want to be having any big concern. Agree Bullet Train too is very short, and whilst I think time will prove the Dante strong form, I'll swerve Workforce at single figures. Coordinated Cut is a big price who I think was sent for home too soon and Rewilding is the other one I'd back.
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Agree I wouldn't be lumping into him at 5/2 either - but in relation to the rest I am not sure how much bigger he should be as he has achieved more and is open to as much if not more improvement at the trip.
 
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