The Derby

You'd definitely win betting these long-term, they've copped so many times before; New Approach and Binocular are two high profile examples that come to mind. At these prices you don't need many to cop.

The only way to win from punting is by not following the crowd. This is a prime example.
 
For all the examples of New Approach and Binocular - they are far out weighed by the number of horses declared non runners/very unlikely runners that dont turn up in these races. Binocular, Kicking King and New Approach are the three thrown up the whole time.


Gamla Stan said:
You'd definitely win betting these long-term, they've copped so many times before; New Approach and Binocular are two high profile examples that come to mind. At these prices you don't need many to cop.

The only way to win from punting is by not following the crowd. This is a prime example.
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I haven't decided yet what I'm doing but I'll start by looking for a credible candidate from outside Coolmore.

Their tradition is to run their best Derby horses in either the 2000 Gns or, more usually, the Derrinstown. The Dante comes next in the pecking order followed by the Lingfield trial. Normally the Gallinule would never be considered by them as a suitable prep race for Epsom because it comes only two weeks before.

Something's not right with their intended No1 contender, even just going on the vibes in the last few days. Then add to that a banal performance at best in the 2000 Gns, and unenthusiastic remarks from paddock judges about his progress from two to three, and there is no encouragement to back him.

As winner of the Derrinstown, Midas Touch would be their number one in a normal year. While he ran a nice enough race, the horse he beat, Address Unknown, appeared to duck the issue. And then it would seem that Coolmore themselves are not convinced about their horse. At first they preferred SNA, now they prefer Jan Vermeer.

Cape Blanco should in principle be lower in the rankings and at one stage looked more likely to go to France.

As for Jan Vermeer, is it possible to win such a demanding and high class race as the Derby off an unorthodox preparation? Traditionally the Gallinule is more a trial for the Irish Derby than for the Epsom race. To me the fact he is being rushed raises the question whether there is a lack of confidence by Coolmore in the overall strength of their team.
 
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Presumably Cape Blanco is still more likely to go to France or must be hopping around on 3 legs. There can't be any other explanation for him being a bigger price than Workforce.
 
Galileo said:
For all the examples of New Approach and Binocular - they are far out weighed by the number of horses declared non runners/very unlikely runners that dont turn up in these races.
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But the trainer has gone nowhere near the words very unlikely.
 
Gamla Stan said:
You'd definitely win betting these long-term, they've copped so many times before; New Approach and Binocular are two high profile examples that come to mind. At these prices you don't need many to cop.

The only way to win from punting is by not following the crowd. This is a prime example.
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but you are going against the crowd just because a horse drifts..no reasoning or edge given..what is your reason for going against it?..do you know something the layers don't?

basically your argument is that you back every fav on betfair that doubles in price+..just because its doubled in price..thats not really going against the crowd..its not even close to a classic example

an example of going against the crowd would be based on having an edge/reason..not just naysaying other punters

saying 3 horses won is fine..you missed the others out though..the ones that lost or never ran
 
I think I shall back Bullet Train ew - HRAC evidently thinks he has come on a lot from Lingfield or he would not be running - he stays 12f , handled Lingfield well so he should come down the hill and should be in the frame.

I suspect either JV or SNA will win the Derby but until Ballydoyle send out the white smoke on Wednesday it will be difficult to tell which.
 
Both the Abdulla horses WForce and BTrain are out of Northern Dancer line mares, not one of the last 19 Derby winners have come from Northern Dancer line mares , this does not stop them winning the Derby , but it is a surprising stat.
 
He's probably about an Evens chance to lineup (that's being conservative, more likely 5/6, some would argue lining up is shorter Fav). If he does line up, I can't see him going off any bigger than 9/2. Therefore he's at best a 10/1 shot to win the race at the moment, however that's a related bet so the true odds are in fact less than 10/1.

That combined with the fact there's a position to trade out of the bet if he does line up make the 14s on offer this afternoon great value.

If he doesn't run, so be it, I'll have done my money but I'll happily do the same thing next time.
 
Gamla Stan said:
He's probably about an Evens chance to lineup (that's being conservative, more likely 5/6, some would argue lining up is shorter Fav). If he does line up, I can't see him going off any bigger than 9/2. Therefore he's at best a 10/1 shot to win the race at the moment, however that's a related bet so the true odds are in fact less than 10/1.

That combined with the fact there's a position to trade out of the bet if he does line up make the 14s on offer this afternoon great value.

If he doesn't run, so be it, I'll have done my money but I'll happily do the same thing next time.
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oh well - you have to do whatever floats yer boat i suppose

he went to 14's?..crikey..non runner [nap]
 
He's been out to 20/1, horses go to 1000/1 and win races.

At a pure mathematics and odds-compiling level, he's value at 10/1 or above.
 
I think this is a better Derby than many think, just as I said before the Guineas.

JV, CB and MT have all hit decent marks in their trials and you'd expect them to improve agian.

And then there's the possibility, if AOB is right, that SNA is "head and shoulders" better.

I agree that Coordinated Cut is the outsider that merits closest inspection. If our (my, EC1's etc) time ratings for the Dante are right, then Coordinated Cut could well end up in the frame and if it improves as Kauto hopes he could be the winner.

But I'm clinging to SNA until such times as I see I'm wrong.
 
St Nicholas Abbey - Update
St Nicholas Abbey was due to work first thing this morning, however when he came out of his box we noticed he was stiff behind. He had looked slightly stiff yesterday evening. His work on Friday last was a little lacklustre for him and that was the first time we had seen anything different but he was fine afterwards.
He was immediately examined and scanned by our vets this morning. They found a slight muscle injury high up in his hind quarter. This meant he could not work today and we were advised to give him an easy few days.
Obviously this will preclude him from running in the Investec Derby on Saturday. We always thought St Nicholas Abbey could walk on water and it is very unfortunate for all concerned to have a setback like this so close to the big race.
Aidan O’Brien.
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Gut says he will race again but I do not like some of the over the top quotes coming from O'Brien over the last week or so. Hard to see them retiring him though if they genuinely believe in what they have been saying - Eclipse possible?
 
"His work on Friday last was a little lacklustre for him and that was the first time we had seen anything different, but he was fine afterwards.

"He was immediately examined and scanned by our vets this morning. They found a slight muscle injury high up in his hind quarter. This meant he could not work today and we were advised to give him an easy few days.
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He was immediately examined after what?
 
Really.... ?!

I agree re COORDINATED CUT - especially if the ground is genuinely good - he may well the real surprise of the race and here's to the first forum member-owned Classic winner!!
 
When they noticed he was stiff this morning - Read the full quote.

Load of tosh - The horse isn't good enough. I reckon he's fine but they've known since before the guineas he wasn't that good. I am being completely cynical though!!!
 
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