The Derby

His form is no better than it was a week ago when he was 6/1. If St Nicholas Abbey runs, it looks like a 7/2 the field race to me.
 
Serious doubts? He was still double figures after his reappearance win according to oddschecker. He's the only horse there has been money for since, even before St Nicholas Abbey worked disappointingly. No matter what may or may not have been said, the betting has indicated all along post reappearance than Jan Vermeer was off to Epsom.
 
Good, Good to Firm in Places​

(GoingStick: 8.5 on Sunday at 11:30)​

Stalls: 1 mile 4 furlongs - Centre​

Stalls: Remainder - Inside​

4mm rain Saturday 29 May. Outlook mainly dry apart from possible​

showers on Tuesday 1 June.​

6mm to be applied to entire course Monday 31 May.​
 
Aidan O'Brien is responsible for six of the 15 six-day acceptors for the Investec Derby.
All of his big guns stand their ground namely Jan Vermeer, St Nicholas Abbey, Midas Touch and Cape Blanco.
At First Sight and Bright Horizon complete the sextet.
As expected Godolphin have supplemented Rewilding for the race - along with Buzzword. Al Zir is their third representative at this stage.
Workforce, Azmeel, Bullet Train, Coordinated Cut and Ted Spread spearhead the home defence along with Michael Jarvis' Hot Prospect.
The horses withdrawn on Monday were Ameer, Averroes, Chabal, Gumnd, Mubtassim and Trovare.
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Workforce as low as 6-1 with some firms, does have a couple of BIG stats to overcome 1. Beaten Dante runners, and 2. Sire is from the Mr Prospector sireline the closest they have come to winning the Derby was Hawk Wing 2nd. Hope the Northern Dancers dont let me down.
 
If he was with any other British trainer he'd be 14s. And it's not just stats and a lack of form, that horse didn't look like he'd enjoy a course like Epsom in the Dante. Really surprised he's not being kept back for some more experience before taking in a Group 1.
 
Irish Derby woud have been more his course, but hey Stoute should know what he is doing. I guess because Stoute has given the OK to run him , that is why he is so short in the market. Remember Kris Kin was heavily backed before he won the Derby, but at least they waited for the day of the race before they piled in.
 
Coordinated cut is far too big a price imo he is gonna improve alot from the Dante and is gonna love this step up in trip no end. I think you will see the best of him come Saturday whether that will be good enough who knows but I'm adamant he will go very close...cue the custard pies!
 
Euronymous said:
Yes. These people laying him don't know whether he's running or not - they're just lemmings following the money.
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I agree completely, it's reached a ridiculous stage where I've had to weigh in with a decent sized bet. I'm not the animal's biggest fan but in a year where it's absolutely shite with nothing but slowboats in the lineup you have to back him at 10/1ish, I'm more than willing to lose my money on a bet like this. If he does run and Heffernan or someone rides, he'll be no bigger than 4/1 at the off.
 
The Guineas looked shite beforehand but it has turned out to be pretty good - not sure how the Derby can be classed as shite this year before it has even been run.

Gamla Stan said:
I agree completely, it's reached a ridiculous stage where I've had to weigh in with a decent sized bet. I'm not the animal's biggest fan but in a year where it's absolutely shite with nothing but slowboats in the lineup you have to back him at 10/1ish, I'm more than willing to lose my money on a bet like this. If he does run and Heffernan or someone rides, he'll be no bigger than 4/1 at the off.
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Hmmm not sure if that was true; Canford and DT put up an epic performance on the clock in the Greenham (Well up to Guineas winning times) but everybody was too busy getting excited about St Nick and whilst he'd get battered by them again and again as he's not up to their class over a mile, he's capable of improving from that run to winning this which looks as poor as Sir Percy's race.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I agree completely, it's reached a ridiculous stage where I've had to weigh in with a decent sized bet. I'm not the animal's biggest fan but in a year where it's absolutely shite with nothing but slowboats in the lineup you have to back him at 10/1ish, I'm more than willing to lose my money on a bet like this. If he does run and Heffernan or someone rides, he'll be no bigger than 4/1 at the off.
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i'm not seeing this logic

those laying him are lemmings..but in same token those backing him are lemmings too.

one lot are lemmings because they think he won't run..others are lemmings because they are holding onto two hopes..he runs..and also wins

the most likely option is he isn't going to run..lemming layers get money for nowt..if he does run is more than likely to run poorly

if you had a real Derby horse in your stable..you would know ..in an operation like AOB's these vibes are giving a clear message..something isn't right


just wait til the day..this is just russian roulette..a guessing game..with odds stacked against you getting a 10/1 winner by some way

you are actually getting no value at 10/1..as risk of not running..having something wrong with him makes at a poor value bet..not a good one...you havin yoursens on its value
 
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"We have searched under every hair to try and see if there was a reason why St Nicholas Abbey did not work as well as we had hoped on Friday and we haven't come up with anything yet."
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I would be really surprised and disappointed if he ran without Murtagh onboard - that quote from O'Brien almost suggests that he will be running but the market says without Murtagh?
 
You'd win on a lifetime backing these drifts in antepost markets.

The people laying him aren't from AOB's, there'd be more than £100 up there to back!!
 
Gamla Stan said:
You'd win on a lifetime backing these drifts in antepost markets.

The people laying him aren't from AOB's, there'd be more than £100 up there to back!!
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never said the people laying him are from AOB

word gets out with these things though..the fact that people are laying silly prices tells you something

yes some folk are daft..but something isn't right

I doubt you would win long term..at this moment its touch and go if it runs..trained by anyone else its 6/7 to one anyway..so 10's don't look great ..its priced accordingly imo

I don't think there is much difference between those laying and backing tbh..all guessers
 
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