The Derby

Galileo said:
Whats the ground likely to be in France? If Workforce wins there will be some serious red faces..
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There's an extra 1 1/2 furlongs in the Derby on a different course; dangerous to assume the result would be the same. I thought Workforce ran pretty well in the Dante considering the ground and the fact the bit slipped and would not have been surprised if the result were different at Epsom.

Just my view though and they have made the decisions I expected them to... Even down to making up a slight injury to avoid the embarrasment with St Nic :whistle:
 
I wouldn't be surprised no...

I don't think they expected him to win the Derby for some time. Everyone else assumes because he is a Montjeu he would stay and that was his ultimate aim but they were cagey for most of the winter and all the talk was of the guineas - a Montjeu guineas winner would have been a coup for them and I think they thought he had the pace... Imho he is a speedy Montjeu that does not stay so they have two choices - Retire him and pack him off to stud as a champion 2yo Montjeu who wasn't quick enough for the guineas or try and win a 10f Group 1 with him... He won't win a mile group 1 based on his Newmarket performance and I never thought he would stay 1m4f.... The latter choice is more of a gamble.

If you look back through his dam's family you will see the same traits - Precocious 2yo's who do not train on...
 
His dam wasn't good enough in the first place to win a Group 1 but that did not stop SNA! There are two sides to a family....I think we will see him back probably over 10 furlongs I would say.

Everything you are saying is based on a single bad run in conditions he had never raced in/on before.

Aragorn said:
I wouldn't be surprised no...

I don't think they expected him to win the Derby for some time. Everyone else assumes because he is a Montjeu he would stay and that was his ultimate aim but they were cagey for most of the winter and all the talk was of the guineas - a Montjeu guineas winner would have been a coup for them and I think they thought he had the pace... Imho he is a speedy Montjeu that does not stay so they have two choices - Retire him and pack him off to stud as a champion 2yo Montjeu who wasn't quick enough for the guineas or try and win a 10f Group 1 with him... He won't win a mile group 1 based on his Newmarket performance and I never thought he would stay 1m4f.... The latter choice is more of a gamble.

If you look back through his dam's family you will see the same traits - Precocious 2yo's who do not train on...
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Aragorn said:
I wouldn't be surprised no...

I don't think they expected him to win the Derby for some time. Everyone else assumes because he is a Montjeu he would stay and that was his ultimate aim but they were cagey for most of the winter and all the talk was of the guineas - a Montjeu guineas winner would have been a coup for them and I think they thought he had the pace... Imho he is a speedy Montjeu that does not stay so they have two choices - Retire him and pack him off to stud as a champion 2yo Montjeu who wasn't quick enough for the guineas or try and win a 10f Group 1 with him... He won't win a mile group 1 based on his Newmarket performance and I never thought he would stay 1m4f.... The latter choice is more of a gamble.

If you look back through his dam's family you will see the same traits - Precocious 2yo's who do not train on...
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Agree with all that - very good summary of the horse.
 
Galileo said:
His dam wasn't good enough in the first place to win a Group 1 but that did not stop SNA! There are two sides to a family....I think we will see him back probably over 10 furlongs I would say.
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What percentage of Group 1 winners have dams who also won a Group 1? Not that high I would imagine.
 
Hamm said:
What percentage of Group 1 winners have dams who also won a Group 1? Not that high I would imagine.
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I didn't mean it quite that literally...it would be very unusual for a son of Montjeu (a sire that really stamps his stock) not to either stay and or train on.
 
10th foal, brother to 1m 2yo AW winner Cascata (stayed 1m4f), half-brother to US Grade 2 9f/1m4f winner Grammarian and Italian 5f winner Mekland; dam unraced half-sister to Group 1 winners Ballingarry & Aristotle (by Sadler´s Wells)

I really cannot see the pedigree doubts with that sort of pedigree...
 
Galileo said:
I didn't mean it quite that literally...it would be very unusual for a son of Montjeu (a sire that really stamps his stock) not to either stay and or train on.
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Almost as unusual as it would have been for a Montjeu to wina Group 1 over less than 1m4!

Seriously though, I ,and not for pedigree reasons (you're right in terms of profiling), have him as a doubtful stayer - the Guineas gave no encouragement, and the slow pace helped him in the RP Trophy, not hindered him as it would a typical 1m4 horse.
 
If SNA has not been working very well at home and this muscle problem is all a big conspiracy, why haven’t they started talking up some other horse? There has been no ‘hyping’ of Jan Vermeer or Cape Blanco or Midas Touch. Why continue hyping up a horse for the sake of stud fees of €15K when you still have potential Derby winners in the yard who could be worth several times that. Why does there have to be a conspiracy? Have Ballydoyle/Coolmore a history of hyping up horses and not giving them a chance to prove themselves? What was the last Ballydoyle horse to be talked up and whisked off to stud prematurely? Perhaps only Holy Roman Emperor, but the circumstances were different. Is it so hard to believe that SNA could still be the same horse that we saw in the Racing Post Trophy and was truly unlucky to pick up a slight injury. By the way, is it a coincidence that Murtagh was work-riding him for the first time last week? I think AOB was genuinely excited that he had something special. I’m prepared to believe what is being reported, hope the horse makes a full recovery quickly, and look forward to seeing him justify himself and his connections.
 
I think we need to give the horse the benefit of the doubt till he runs again. Just imagine if New Approach had got injured after that run on unsuitable ground in the Irish Guineas, what reputation would that horse have had if he'd never run again?
 
Not surprisingly I agree with all of that. Why bother talk up a piece of junk when you have any other number of Montjeus or Galileos to select from.

Sequoyah said:
If SNA has not been working very well at home and this muscle problem is all a big conspiracy, why haven’t they started talking up some other horse? There has been no ‘hyping’ of Jan Vermeer or Cape Blanco or Midas Touch. Why continue hyping up a horse for the sake of stud fees of €15K when you still have potential Derby winners in the yard who could be worth several times that. Why does there have to be a conspiracy? Have Ballydoyle/Coolmore a history of hyping up horses and not giving them a chance to prove themselves? What was the last Ballydoyle horse to be talked up and whisked off to stud prematurely? Perhaps only Holy Roman Emperor, but the circumstances were different. Is it so hard to believe that SNA could still be the same horse that we saw in the Racing Post Trophy and was truly unlucky to pick up a slight injury. By the way, is it a coincidence that Murtagh was work-riding him for the first time last week? I think AOB was genuinely excited that he had something special. I’m prepared to believe what is being reported, hope the horse makes a full recovery quickly, and look forward to seeing him justify himself and his connections.
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Euronymous said:
I think we need to give the horse the benefit of the doubt till he runs again. Just imagine if New Approach had got injured after that run on unsuitable ground in the Irish Guineas, what reputation would that horse have had if he'd never run again?
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New Approach proved he more than trained on, being short headed by an excellent miler at Newmarket. He also achieved more as a juvenile than SNA. And, he had a perfectly valid excuse for his Irish Guineas run - the ground was like a road that day. SNA had no excuse at Newmarket, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt if and when he shows he has trained on - at the moment, I am very much in the camp he hasn't.
 
Hamm said:
New Approach proved he more than trained on, being short headed by an excellent miler at Newmarket. He also achieved more as a juvenile than SNA. And, he had a perfectly valid excuse for his Irish Guineas run - the ground was like a road that day. SNA had no excuse at Newmarket, and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt if and when he shows he has trained on - at the moment, I am very much in the camp he hasn't.
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New Approach (by Galileo) was a Dewhurst and National Stakes winner - Guineas trials. SNA won a Racing Post - stayers/Derby race and he has has a staying pedigree. Never previously raced on fast ground and trainers horses were a bit hit and miss at the time of Newmarket. It really does not take much to think the horse (forgetting the hype which is what we all should do Hamm! ;)) the horse never had his conditions to prove himself.
 
I agree with the RP Trophy/Middle Distance point, as I've said I think he's capable of being up there with the best 3 yo middle distance colts this year but if he's as good as folk were suggesting before the Guineas, he should have been able to handle spring Good to Firm ground over a mile, was hardly a road that day.

For me, he was massively over rated after the RP Trophy and people wanted a new superstar, he understandably got smashed in the Guineas as there were far superior milers in the lineup, that was obvious prior to the race but he ran a decent enough middle distance trial in that race and I'd be surprised if he wasn't able to pick something decent up as the season goes on, mainly due to the lack of opposition more than anything else.
 
The trainer said he doesn't want soft ground - he didn't get it. He had NO excuses at Newmarket - he got his perfect race conditions, and couldn't do it. Now, everyone says a mile is too short for him - why? He was even money favourite - it's not like a late run into a place was what people were expecting. If he runs at 1m2, and gets beaten well again, people will say he needs 1m4. Surely you couldn't think his run at Newmarket looked that of a stayer? He just looked the type of horse who would be mid div in a Guineas - good, but far from great.

You could argue New Approach is more the stayer on pedigree.

It is excuse after excuse for SNA :)
 
Some were calling New Approach a possible non-stayer before the Derby, which was frankly ridiculous.
 
Galileo said:
Not surprisingly I agree with all of that. Why bother talk up a piece of junk when you have any other number of Montjeus or Galileos to select from.
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Hawk Wing or Rock of Gibraltar?

Fame and Glory or Rip Van Winkle?

They get it wrong sometimes and i'm not saying he wasn't doing good things at home because he clearly was but my point is two fold 1) I don't think he'll stay the 1m4f and 2) I think he was unlikely to progress.

Gal, i'm at work now so can't access the RP site but will give you my more detailed thoughts on his pedigree later. First glance at the pedigree analysis would not give you my view. You can also see from that extract why they are so keen for him to be a success as he has an excellent bloodline. SOme of the others have much less flashy pedigrees...

Really good debate though overall this!!! I'm not sure anyone's suggesting conspiracies - Just back tracking and PR gone wrong.
 
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