The Derby
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You do not take anything else the trainer has to say at face value so why would you take this on board about a son of Montjeu that never raced on anything with the word "firm" in it and had previously shown (like the vast majority of Montjeus) to relish an ease in the ground.
To be honest for all those claiming the horse was hyped up, it is THEM that seems to believe the horse could walk on water, not the rest of us who saw him as a top class prospect and not the next Sea The Stars - it seems because he is not STS people want to diss him.
Tony Morris's view on St Nicholas Abbey after his Beresford success..
Tony Morris12.49PM 2 OCT 2009 St Nicholas Abbey
2 b c Montjeu - Leaping Water (Sure Blade)
THE Beresford Stakes has long been one of the key races in the Irish calendar when it comes to identifying Classic aspirants for the following year.
The roll of honour includes the undefeated Windsor Slipper, who won it in 1941 enroute to his sweep of the Irish colts' Classics, and it was in that event that Nijinsky had a close call against Decies before his triumph in the more consequential Triple Crown across the water in 1970.
Assert and Sadler's Wells featured among the winners of the 1980s, and since the turn of the century Alamshar, Azamour and Septimus were all successful before their elevation to Group 1 status. And nobody should need reminding that it was in last year's Beresfordthat Sea the Stars collected the first of his Pattern honours.
The lesson from this particular slice of history is that what happens in that 1m Group 2 event bears close inspection, with particular regard to middle-distance and staying events at the top level in the season to come.
And it is a lesson not lost on the bookmaking fraternity, who promptly made Sunday's winner, St Nicholas Abbey, favourite for the 2010 Derby.
The Montjeu colt went into the race a virtual novice, with only one start behind him. In that mid-August Curragh maiden, run on ground described as ‘soft to heavy', he started at 11-10 in a field of 11 and accomplished his task in fine style.
He was still some way off the pace coming to the seventh furlong, but he closed smoothly without having to be asked a serious question, led inside the last and drew clear readily to win by four lengths. Maybe the opposition was not up to much, but St Nicholas Abbey could hardly have had a more pleasing introduction.
It is common knowledge that the Ballydoyle two-year-olds are always better for their initial outing, so the swift leap into Group 2 company at the weekend and the presence of two English raiders – one of them supplemented from Godolphin – proved no deterrent to punters, who backed him down to 5-2 on.
They never had too much to worry about. He came from behind again, travelling easily, seemed to hesitate through greenness momentarily when asked to pick up, but once shown the whip he soon got the hang of things, led inside the last and stayed on strongly to win with a lot more in hand than the three-quarter-length margin over Layali Al Andalus might imply.
The Godolphin candidate Passion For Gold was a length and a half farther back, having run on under pressure without ever seeming likely to threaten the principals.
The bare form does not amount to a great deal, given that Layali Al Andalus had finished a well-beaten fifth in the Champagne Stakes on his previous appearance, and Passion For Gold had won nothing more exciting than a Thirsk maiden.
In addition, the time – on good ground – was relatively slow, rather slower than that taken by Shakespearean in the Goffs Million Mile some half an hour later, though the two races were not run over an identical course.
Of course, the bare form of any race often does not disclose much. What counts is how we interpret the performances.
In this case I take a positive view of St Nicholas Abbey's running. We may be absolutely sure that the runner-up did not show his true form at Doncaster, where he sweated up beforehand, hung under pressure, and the 7f trip seemed inadequate for him. He was much better suited by Sunday's mile, and under an aggressive ride gave his best display to date.
We should also note that the first half of the Beresford was run at just a steady pace, and that St Nicholas Abbey showed a sharp burst of acceleration, coming home with a rare rattle under minimum encouragement. I have to regard him as a serious horse, a few pounds superior to his stablemate Joshua Tree, who won the Royal Lodge on Saturday, but I dare say that even Aidan O'Brien may be unsure of the pecking order at Ballydoyle as yet.
Both St Nicholas Abbey and Joshua Tree are by Montjeu, as was last week's Derby favourite, Coordinated Cut, and they are not the only sons of that remarkable stallion who have been cited as possible Classic candidates next year.
High Twelve, who did not do himself justice at Ascot, and Jan Vermeer, who trotted up in maiden company at Gowran Park at the weekend, are others. There have even been whispers about Captain James Cook, one of the Ballydoyle dark horses, still unraced.
But it has become second nature to think of Derbys where sons of Montjeu are concerned. His first foals arrived as recently as 2002, but he already has a score of seven Derby winners - Motivator and Authorized in England, Hurricane Run, Frozen Fire and Fame And Glory in Ireland, Nom du Jeu and Roman Emperor in Australia.
That is a phenomenal record, surely unprecedented for any stallion so early in his career.
What we can readily deduce from those names is that Montjeu, an outstanding 1m4f performer himself, confers stamina and class on his progeny. We can add other Group 1 winners to the list to confirm that point, such as Montare, Scorpion, Montmartre and Jukebox Jury.
Most have been out of mares by sires who were themselves stayers, but that was not the case with Motivator, Montmartre, Roman Emperor and Jukebox Jury, whose respective broodmare sires were Gone West, Linamix, Last Tycoon and Kenmare.
St Nicholas Abbey is out of Leaping Water, an unraced mare by Sure Blade, who earned his reputation as a miler, failed as a sire, and has cut little ice as a broodmare sire. Can we believe that he might have supplied a dash of speed for the Beresford winner to make him perhaps a contender for the Guineas as well as the Derby?
Frankly, it is hard to see Sure Blade being a positive influence for anything, and it will be better for St Nicholas Abbey's prospects of top-level success if he is a pure Montjeu, a faithful scion of the Sadler's Wells tribe.
Leaping Water has had an odd career, changing hands for only 3,200gns as a three-year-old, spending her first three seasons in the company of Pips Pride, then venturing to America with a Definite Article colt inside her who proceeded to win a couple of Grade 2 turf events in California.
Her spell in the States, visiting indifferent sires, proved unproductive, but she then came home for coverings by Sadler's Wellsand Montjeu – an upmarket move explained by the emergence of her young half-brothers Aristotle and Ballingarry, both sons of Sadler's Wells, as Group 1 winners.
This is a family in which stamina predominates, and it is a fair bet that we shall see the best of St Nicholas Abbey when he has the opportunity to stretch out to 1m4f next summer.
Tony Morris12.49PM 2 OCT 2009 St Nicholas Abbey
2 b c Montjeu - Leaping Water (Sure Blade)
THE Beresford Stakes has long been one of the key races in the Irish calendar when it comes to identifying Classic aspirants for the following year.
The roll of honour includes the undefeated Windsor Slipper, who won it in 1941 enroute to his sweep of the Irish colts' Classics, and it was in that event that Nijinsky had a close call against Decies before his triumph in the more consequential Triple Crown across the water in 1970.
Assert and Sadler's Wells featured among the winners of the 1980s, and since the turn of the century Alamshar, Azamour and Septimus were all successful before their elevation to Group 1 status. And nobody should need reminding that it was in last year's Beresfordthat Sea the Stars collected the first of his Pattern honours.
The lesson from this particular slice of history is that what happens in that 1m Group 2 event bears close inspection, with particular regard to middle-distance and staying events at the top level in the season to come.
And it is a lesson not lost on the bookmaking fraternity, who promptly made Sunday's winner, St Nicholas Abbey, favourite for the 2010 Derby.
The Montjeu colt went into the race a virtual novice, with only one start behind him. In that mid-August Curragh maiden, run on ground described as ‘soft to heavy', he started at 11-10 in a field of 11 and accomplished his task in fine style.
He was still some way off the pace coming to the seventh furlong, but he closed smoothly without having to be asked a serious question, led inside the last and drew clear readily to win by four lengths. Maybe the opposition was not up to much, but St Nicholas Abbey could hardly have had a more pleasing introduction.
It is common knowledge that the Ballydoyle two-year-olds are always better for their initial outing, so the swift leap into Group 2 company at the weekend and the presence of two English raiders – one of them supplemented from Godolphin – proved no deterrent to punters, who backed him down to 5-2 on.
They never had too much to worry about. He came from behind again, travelling easily, seemed to hesitate through greenness momentarily when asked to pick up, but once shown the whip he soon got the hang of things, led inside the last and stayed on strongly to win with a lot more in hand than the three-quarter-length margin over Layali Al Andalus might imply.
The Godolphin candidate Passion For Gold was a length and a half farther back, having run on under pressure without ever seeming likely to threaten the principals.
The bare form does not amount to a great deal, given that Layali Al Andalus had finished a well-beaten fifth in the Champagne Stakes on his previous appearance, and Passion For Gold had won nothing more exciting than a Thirsk maiden.
In addition, the time – on good ground – was relatively slow, rather slower than that taken by Shakespearean in the Goffs Million Mile some half an hour later, though the two races were not run over an identical course.
Of course, the bare form of any race often does not disclose much. What counts is how we interpret the performances.
In this case I take a positive view of St Nicholas Abbey's running. We may be absolutely sure that the runner-up did not show his true form at Doncaster, where he sweated up beforehand, hung under pressure, and the 7f trip seemed inadequate for him. He was much better suited by Sunday's mile, and under an aggressive ride gave his best display to date.
We should also note that the first half of the Beresford was run at just a steady pace, and that St Nicholas Abbey showed a sharp burst of acceleration, coming home with a rare rattle under minimum encouragement. I have to regard him as a serious horse, a few pounds superior to his stablemate Joshua Tree, who won the Royal Lodge on Saturday, but I dare say that even Aidan O'Brien may be unsure of the pecking order at Ballydoyle as yet.
Both St Nicholas Abbey and Joshua Tree are by Montjeu, as was last week's Derby favourite, Coordinated Cut, and they are not the only sons of that remarkable stallion who have been cited as possible Classic candidates next year.
High Twelve, who did not do himself justice at Ascot, and Jan Vermeer, who trotted up in maiden company at Gowran Park at the weekend, are others. There have even been whispers about Captain James Cook, one of the Ballydoyle dark horses, still unraced.
But it has become second nature to think of Derbys where sons of Montjeu are concerned. His first foals arrived as recently as 2002, but he already has a score of seven Derby winners - Motivator and Authorized in England, Hurricane Run, Frozen Fire and Fame And Glory in Ireland, Nom du Jeu and Roman Emperor in Australia.
That is a phenomenal record, surely unprecedented for any stallion so early in his career.
What we can readily deduce from those names is that Montjeu, an outstanding 1m4f performer himself, confers stamina and class on his progeny. We can add other Group 1 winners to the list to confirm that point, such as Montare, Scorpion, Montmartre and Jukebox Jury.
Most have been out of mares by sires who were themselves stayers, but that was not the case with Motivator, Montmartre, Roman Emperor and Jukebox Jury, whose respective broodmare sires were Gone West, Linamix, Last Tycoon and Kenmare.
St Nicholas Abbey is out of Leaping Water, an unraced mare by Sure Blade, who earned his reputation as a miler, failed as a sire, and has cut little ice as a broodmare sire. Can we believe that he might have supplied a dash of speed for the Beresford winner to make him perhaps a contender for the Guineas as well as the Derby?
Frankly, it is hard to see Sure Blade being a positive influence for anything, and it will be better for St Nicholas Abbey's prospects of top-level success if he is a pure Montjeu, a faithful scion of the Sadler's Wells tribe.
Leaping Water has had an odd career, changing hands for only 3,200gns as a three-year-old, spending her first three seasons in the company of Pips Pride, then venturing to America with a Definite Article colt inside her who proceeded to win a couple of Grade 2 turf events in California.
Her spell in the States, visiting indifferent sires, proved unproductive, but she then came home for coverings by Sadler's Wellsand Montjeu – an upmarket move explained by the emergence of her young half-brothers Aristotle and Ballingarry, both sons of Sadler's Wells, as Group 1 winners.
This is a family in which stamina predominates, and it is a fair bet that we shall see the best of St Nicholas Abbey when he has the opportunity to stretch out to 1m4f next summer.
Isinglass
At the Start
Too right Gal, I was dumbfounded when the press started to say 'is he the next Sea The Stars?' I hate this, why does there have to be a next one? Still waiting for the next Nijinsky ......
I like Nicholas, shame he is injured, but not end of the world, remember how they Brought Yeats back, and The Duke.
I like Nicholas, shame he is injured, but not end of the world, remember how they Brought Yeats back, and The Duke.
We'll forget Montjeu for a moment and concentrate on Morris' observations on Leaping Water. Her Dam, Flamenco wave won the Moyglare at two and then finished last in the Athasi and Irish 1000 at three. Aristotle and Ballingarry won three G1's between - 2 of those were at 2 (The RP trophy (Anybody?) & the Criterium Saint Cloud). Ballingarry did manage to win the Canadian International and ran well in some other Group 1's but did he really progress? Not convinced. Aristotle only won once more in his career after winning a maiden and the RP trophy at 2. Leaping Water's other group 1 winning half brother Starborough (Sire of Overdose) was a miler and he did progress so there was hope.
However it is St Nic's full sister Cascata, who was a once raced maiden winner in her 2yo career with Cumani, that put the nail in for me. She was a quietly fancied oaks outsider over the winter. Now rated 80 and hasn't won since.
I think St Nic may get 12f and will probably be competitive but he was always going to have to improve from 2 to 3 to be the pegasus he was being touted as; the signs from his family were not good.The overall family profile meant that there was every chance he was not going to improve much over the winter and that left him vulnerable.
However it is St Nic's full sister Cascata, who was a once raced maiden winner in her 2yo career with Cumani, that put the nail in for me. She was a quietly fancied oaks outsider over the winter. Now rated 80 and hasn't won since.
I think St Nic may get 12f and will probably be competitive but he was always going to have to improve from 2 to 3 to be the pegasus he was being touted as; the signs from his family were not good.The overall family profile meant that there was every chance he was not going to improve much over the winter and that left him vulnerable.
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jinnyj
Senior Jockey
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I remember plenty of people discarding a horse called Binocular earlier in the year and there were conspiracy stories flying about them. Horses get injured and sometimes it takes a while before it shows regardless of umpteen tests you do on them. SNA may well have been carrying the injury in the Guineas for all we know and it was not until a recent piece of work that it was enough for the horse to shohw signs of stiffness. As a trainer it is baffling sometimes why horses fail to show their best or live up to the high hopes you have for them. But at the end of the day they can't talk and say "You know, I'm having a off-day and I'd really rather have a quiet day for a change and read my book rather than hurtling up Newmarket Rowley mile!"
EC1
On a break
I just can't see this..where was the value..and where is it now?..the vibes were so strong it was a non runner..basically inviting you to part with your money for nothing
this game is hard enough without handing money over for no run whatsoever
over the winter there are many horses that get pulled out.
the only way you get value is to get a big price..and it actually runs.
in this instance..there was a big marker saying DON'T BET
i understand all about fools following horses out and laying at any price..but this horses has been dubious since the guineas to be fair
Gamla Stan
At the Start
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- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
Would you rather be a backer or a layer of these antepost drifters over a ten year period?
I do not see how a horse that has won the Canadian International near the end of the his 3 year old campaign can have any doubts about him not training on - clearly the horse did and if you did not have your preconcieved theory (which you are entitled to I would add!!) you would not even question it. He won a Derby trial in France, second to Rakti in the Italian Derby, third to High Chaparral in the Irish Derby and third in the Irish Leger. You are hard to please!
Aristotle was slow in the Racing Post Trophy and was slower as a 3 year old and as you said Starborough did train on.
Forgive me for thinking there is not that much on the dam's side that would suggest doubts about him training on - and I would imagine if we looked at an awful lot more pedigree we could find similar cases.
As for Cascata (the nail in the coffin) - she made her debut at Great Leighs at two, made her three year old debut at Wolverhampton, on to Sailsbury etc. Hardly the campaign of a horse that was ever thought of that highly and she does not look much like training on or not as she did not show much full stop.
Aristotle was slow in the Racing Post Trophy and was slower as a 3 year old and as you said Starborough did train on.
Forgive me for thinking there is not that much on the dam's side that would suggest doubts about him training on - and I would imagine if we looked at an awful lot more pedigree we could find similar cases.
As for Cascata (the nail in the coffin) - she made her debut at Great Leighs at two, made her three year old debut at Wolverhampton, on to Sailsbury etc. Hardly the campaign of a horse that was ever thought of that highly and she does not look much like training on or not as she did not show much full stop.
EC1
On a break
trackside528
At the Start
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Fair points all. Was Footstepsinthesand "whisked" off to stud? first one that comes to mind though I don't remember the details. Even the likes of One Cool Cat were persevered with. With the amount of Galileo and Montjeu progeny already at Coolmore, you'd imagine giving him the chance to prove himself is certainly a risk worth taking anyway.
It seems as if St Nicholas Abbey has been dismissed as a Group 3 horse after Newmarket as readily as he was proclaimed the next Sea The Stars after the RP Trophy.
It is! The big hope is that all the "right" stables are represented and there appears to be a degree of confidence/belief in each of their runners.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
King of Kings was whisked off to stud so quick he fitted an Aussie breeding season in before he went to stud in Ireland
King of Kings was whisked off to stud so quick he fitted an Aussie breeding season in before he went to stud in Ireland
King Of Kings broke down in the Derby didn't he? Either way it was a different era then - the likes of George Washington could easily have been whisked off to stud after the Irish Guineas.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Here it is. I haven’t the luxury of biding my time until later in the week, but was able to make some hasty post-deadline amendments after the SNA news. Originally filed as: Keep faith with St Nicholas for Classic honours at right trip
Appears today as:
With a close to ideal Dosage profile of speed and stamina, Vermeer can paint himself into history by winning premier Classic now stablemate and long-time Derby favourite St Nicholas Abbey has been withdrawn
O’Brien may not be ‘Abbey’ but Jan Vermeer can leave him with a smile on his face
THE RUN UP to the 2010 Investec Derby has presented form students with the usual puzzle. In order to gain an edge we look to the fundamentals of breeding and basic type, using the Dosage system as our guide.
Contenders for the Derby require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going.
The accompanying table shows the 15 acceptors at the five-day confirmation stage. Goldolphin has supplemented Rewilding and Buzzword for the race.St Nicholas Abbey is an absentee due to a muscle injury. As usual the table is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).
2010 Derby contenders
Horse Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Cape Blanco (Galileo/Presidium) 3-1-8-7-1 = 20 0.67 -0.10
Bright Horizon (Galileo/Caerleon) 4-0-13-9-0 = 26 0.68 -0.04
Midas Touch (Galileo/Darshaan) 3-0-12-5-2 = 22 0.69 -0.14
At First Sight (Galileo/Bering) 4-0-10-6-0 = 20 0.82 0.10
Ted Spread (Beat Hollow/Alphabatim) 4-2-9-7-0 = 22 0.91 0.14
Bullet Train (Sadler’s Wells/Danehill) 7-3-26-11-1 = 48 0.92 0.08
Azmeel (Azamour/King’s Best) 3-0-8-1-2 = 14 1.00 0.07
St Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu/Sure Blade) 3-1-10-4-0 = 18 1.00 0.17
Jan Vermeer (Montjeu/Pennekamp) 3-2-9-4-0 = 18 1.12 0.22
Coordinated Cut (Montjeu/Arazi) 7-0-13-4-0 = 24 1.29 0.42
Rewilding (Tiger Hill/Top Ville) 1-2-10-1-0 = 14 1.33 0.21
Workforce (King’s Best/Sadler’s Wells) 7-1-10-4-0 = 22 1.44 0.50
Al Zir (Medaglia D’Oro/Bayou Hebert) 4-5-8-2-1 = 20 1.86 0.45
Hot Prospect (Motivator/Kingmambo) 9-0-11-2-0 = 22 1.93 0.73
Buzzword (Pivotal/Danehill) 3-3-12-0-0 = 18 2.00 0.50
Team Ballydoyle
Last season’s champion two-year-old St Nicholas Abbey has been burdened by the stellar expectations of him. To most he proved a disappointing favourite in the 2,000 Guineas, finishing sixth, beaten 3½ lengths by the French raider Makfi. However, we reasoned in our 2,000 Guineas preview that whatever he achieved at Newmarket the son of Montjeu would outperform at middle distances. It is a hammer blow to Ballydoyle that he will not get a chance to redeem himself here where his attributes would have been given an appropriate airing.
It could now be left to Jan Vermeer to step into the breach. At the time of writing, those who could join Jan Vermeer line up from Ballydoyle are: Cape Blanco, Midas Touch, At First Sight and Bright Horizon.
Jan Vermeer, by Montjeu out of a Pennekamp mare, rounded off his two-year-old campaign with a four length victory in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud, on soft going, after winning a maiden at Gowran Park on good to firm, with Midas Touch finishing behind him on both occasions. He was an easy winner of the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes over 10 furlongs at the Curragh on his reappearance this term and warrants huge respect if appearing either at Epsom or in the French Derby.
Midas Touch took the four-runner Group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown from Address Unknown and the pacemaking At First Sight after finishing fourth at Group 1 level in France at the tail-end of last season, behind stablemate Jan Vermeer. The son of Galileo, out of a Darshaan mare, has a negative CD and a DI of less than 1.0, marking him out as a staying type. He appears close to the top of our table and is likely to prove very well suited to the St Leger. He will not fail through want of stamina.
A convincing winner of the Dante from Workforce on his reappearance this term Cape Blanco has subsequently held a prominent position in the betting market for the Derby. The son of Galileo is on a negative CD near the head of our table and, contrary to the doubts of some, will have no problem seeing out the Derby trip. Nevertheless, he has also shown a good element of speed in his races and has all of the credentials to represent Ballydoyle here. He was unbeaten in three races at seven furlongs last season, two at Group level, culminating at Fairyhouse in the Group 2 Galileo EBF Futurity Stakes, in which he made all and stayed on convincingly when challenged.
Godolphin line-up
Frankie Dettori is set to partner Rewilding, leaving Godolphin’s second rider Ahmed Ajtebi to take his chance on either Al Zir or Buzzword.
Rewilding, who has been supplemented for the race at a cost of £75,000, finished runner-up in the Group 2 Prix Noailles at Longchamp earlier this season, when trained by Andre Fabre. The son of Tiger Hill impressed for his new handler, Mahmood Al Zarooni, when landing Goodwood’s 11 furlong Listed Cocked Hat Stakes by four lengths from Prizefighting under Dettori. The Tiger Hill colt out of Darara is a half-brother to Dar Re Mi (by Singspiel) and has good chances of staying the Derby trip.
Al Zir, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, won his first two starts last term before being placed third to St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy. He was outpaced in the 2,000 Guineas on his reappearance, where he finished ninth and although he may appreciate a step up in trip and easier going than he experienced at Newmarket, he may not have the same sort of stamina reserves as several others here.
Buzzword has also been supplemented by Godolphin. The Pivotal colt is the winner of two of his 10 starts, including the Group 3 Prix La Rochette over 7 furlongs at Longchamp last term. He finished down the field in the 2,000 Guineas on his reappearance, but was subsequently good enough to finish fourth behind Lope De Vega in the Poule D’Essai Des Poulains. No stamina points appear in his Dosage profile and he consequently appears at the bottom of our table. While this speaks against his chances at a mile-and-a-half, connections feel he has been staying on at a mile and are clearly keen to give him the chance of stepping up.
Godolphin’sChabal has been scratched from the race and Simon De Montfort, who has already taken Group 3 honours this term at Saint-Cloud and Longchamp over 10 furlongs, will head for the French Derby.
Prince Khalid Abdullah
The Henry Cecil-trained Bullet Train won the Lingfield Derby Trial in impressive fashion from Dubawi Phantom after finishing runner-up to David Elsworth’s Myplacelater in a conditions stakes race at Newbury. The Sadler’s Wells colt is unexposed and with 12 points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile he will comfortably see out the trip. He could easily make up into a fine St Leger prospect.
Bullet Train’s owner, Prince Khalid Abdullah, also has the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Workforce in the Derby. The King’s Best colt was an easy winner of a Goodwood maiden on his only outing last term, slamming Oasis Dancer by six lengths. He showed his dislike for fast going in the Dante on his reappearance this term, by refusing to let himself down on the ground and hanging, causing the bit to slip through his mouth. He nevertheless stayed on for runner-up spot behind Cape Blanco, which in the circumstance was a solid effort. Connections have been particularly pleased with his recent homework and with four points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile, deriving from his dam sire Sadler’s Wells, this classy colt has fair chances of getting the full 12 furlong trip.
It seems that both Bullet Train and Workforce will take their chances for Prince Khalid, as Commander In Chief and Tenby did for their owner in 1993.
The rest
The John Gosden-trained Azmeel won the Group 3 Dee Stakes at Chester from Dancing David after finishing runner-up to Godolphin’s Chabal in the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown earlier in the season.
The Michael Bell-trained Coordinated Cut rallied admirably, when hampered by Ameer, to take Newmarket’s valuable Tattersalls Timeform 3-y-o Trophy by a head on his reappearance this season, but was subsequently made to look one paced behind Cape Blanco and Workforce in the Dante. The son of Montjeu was well beaten in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at the tail-end of last season. He must improve again on what he has achieved so far to figure here, but his trainer believes he has come on for the Dante and he looks set to take his chance.
Ted Spread took the Chester Vase on his reappearance this term, rallying when headed to win by a head from Icon Dream. He appears high up in our table and will have no problem with the trip. He must nevertheless improve again to figure here.
The Michael Jarvis-trained Hot Prospect, a maiden winner at two, finished third to Bullet Train at Lingfield this season and occupied the same position behind Coordinated Cut at Newmarket before that. He is by a Derby winner in Motivator, but looks a little out of his depth amongst these.
Dosage track record
The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four, in this column in 2008 and the winner and first five in 2007. New Approach was taken to outperform his earlier efforts at a mile over middle distances in 2008, while Authorized was the confident selection the year before that, conforming to a profile that was a virtual blueprint for the race.
Last year Fame And Glory was our choice, also appearing to be an ideal candidate – as indeed he proved by taking the Irish Derby – but had to settle for runner-up spot at Epsom to a brilliant atypical winner in Sea The Stars.
Speed/stamina balance
The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a Dosage index (DI) of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The average DI for the past 12 winners is 1.25 and those in a band between around DI 0.7 and just above 1 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).
Dosage of previous winners
Year Colt DI
2009 Sea The Stars 3.00
2008 New Approach 0.89
2007 Authorized* 0.86* (from 1.00)
2006 Sir Percy 0.54
2005 Motivator 1.43
2004 North Light* 1.13* (from 1.60)
2003 Kris Kin* 1.05* (from 1.34)
2002 High Chaparral 0.82
2001 Galileo 1.11
2000 Sinndar 1.56
1999 Oath 1.86
1998 High-Rise 0.82
Average 1.25
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
The winners who matched this requirement of the past 12 winners are: New Approach (DI 0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82), Galileo (1.11) and High-Rise (0.82).
Shortlist
The best matches to the required stamina for this year’s race are: Cape Blanco (0.67),
Bright Horizon (0.68), Midas Touch (0.69), At First Sight (0.82), Ted Spread (0.91), Bullet Train (0.92), Azmeel (1.00), St Nicholas Abbey (1.00), Jan Vermeer (1.12) and Coordinated Cut (1.29).
Of these the classy Jan Vermeer is preferred to his stablemates, although Cape Blanco and Midas Touch warrant great respect should they also line up. The unexposed Bullet Train also merits close attention, bidding for a fifth win in the race for Henry Cecil. Azmeel is well placed in terms of his stamina profile. And Workforce and Rewilding also come into it despite falling just outside our ideal parameters shortlisted above.
Verdict
1) Jan Vermeer
2) Bullet Train
3) Cape Blanco
4) Workforce
5) Midas Touch
6) Rewilding
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
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Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Thanks Steve - great write up 
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Thanks Steve.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Cheers Gal - didn't realise he'd broken down at Epsom.
Agreed!!
I still think that in relative terms the family has a habit of showing it's best form at 2yo and that's the point i'm trying to make. I'm not saying there is no progression but rather that St Nic, to be the pegasus he was being talked up to be, was going to need to progress at the same rate as everything else to maintain his perceived superiority. I always thought this was never going to happen because of the families profile and have always argued this (There are posts in the guineas thread where I said I would be taking him on for this reason).
Not one of their brighter moments to run him at a track like Epsom after having knee surgury over the winter.