The Derby

Hamm said:
No, just the wrong ones. Not running a comfortable Dante winner is a mistake.
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Who was the last Dante winner they ran? Black Bear Island..... He won that race fairly well and then was well beaten in the Derby - I would know, I backed him.

Steve, whilst I would have to bow down to your dosage knowledge etc do you not think that CB's damside is so speed laden there would have to be a doubt about him getting a mile and a half? I was shocked he was top of your stamina list and i'm surprised so many people think he will get a mile and a half well. I think they have made the right decision personally.
 
I find it amusing how many angles people can look at the Ballydoyle decision making. I think the declaration of Cape Blanco to France is a very logical one. As trackside mentioned, he's the one with the stamina doubt and so France makes logical sense.

On what basis are people suggesting that Jan Vemeer wasn't near ready for the Curragh? I could be wrong, but at the curragh gallops of the Ballydoyle team, was it not Jan Vemeer that looked the most impressive and possibly the closest to race fitness?

Also the lack of market support for Cape Blanco in the Dante would signal to me that he was more in need of the run than people think. Murtagh's reaction crossing the line may back this up.
 
According to the paddock observer in the Weekender , Cape Blanco was far from wound up for the Dante.
 
Far from wound up? Given the performance, I'm sorry but for me it says more about their paddock watching that Cape Blanco's readiness. Not 100% percent and will tighten up for it, I could accept, but 'far from wound up' is misleading.
 
Aragorn said:
Steve, whilst I would have to bow down to your dosage knowledge etc do you not think that CB's damside is so speed laden there would have to be a doubt about him getting a mile and a half? I was shocked he was top of your stamina list and i'm surprised so many people think he will get a mile and a half well. I think they have made the right decision personally.
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Maybe they have made the right decision and I can understand why you raise this. Personally I believe he’ll have no problem at 12 furlongs.

Dosage looks only at prepotent influence (basically that which counts over and above other influences) and discards what is not significant. What is significant and what is not will differ according to the individual pedigree we are looking at. It does not take all parts of the pedigree to count for the same.

It was prepotent (significant) influence that told us Canford Cliffs would get a mile and not an equal weighing of all parts of the pedigree (significant and insignificant).

In the case of Cape Blanco the line through Sadler’s Wells-Galileo puts us right on the money in terms of a 12 furlong horse. However, there is no influence that is (yet) considered to be prepotent close-up on his dam sire. The only dam side influences that register come down from: Secretariat (Intermediate/Classic), Reliance (Solid/Professional) and Round Table (Solid). The dam sire Presidium is not a chef-de-race and consequently not recognised as prepotent (for speed or stamina).

Consequently the sum of his prepotent influences come out on the side of stamina rather than speed. Personally I believe it possible that the Dosage system indicates too much stamina in this circumstance. However, I also believe he’ll get 12 furlongs. As I’ve said I believe he’ll have no problem seeing out the Derby trip, but he has also shown a good element of speed in his races.

In sum I would rather see him in the Derby, but believe he may also prove quite effective in France.
 
Aragorn said:
Who was the last Dante winner they ran? Black Bear Island..... He won that race fairly well and then was well beaten in the Derby - I would know, I backed him.
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It’s true that Ballydoyle has had significantly more success with its trial winners in Ireland than those in the Dante, in the Derby.

However, the Dante worked very well for the likes of Authorized, Motivator, North Light, Benny The Dip, Erhaab, Reference Point, Shahrastani, Shirley Heights, etc.
 
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SteveM said:
It’s true that Ballydoyle has had significantly more success with its trial winners in Ireland than those in the Dante, in the Derby.

However, the Dante worked very well for the likes of Authorized, Motivator, North Light, Benny The Dip, Erhaab, Reference Point, Shahrastani, Shirley Heights, etc.
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but none were trained by AOB - which is the whole point that was being made..AOB doesn't see the Dante as an important trial..he uses home trials for his serious chances

don't underestimate such as MT would be a point here..I read on this forum that the form is worthless..the form is a side issue here..its the intent isn't it?..MT ran in an important..to AOB trial..that makes him a serious contender
 
trackside528 said:
Of the Ballydoyle contingent, Cape Blanco probably has the most serious stamina questions to answer regarding the Derby (at least to my mind).

I wasn't particularly impressed with Midas Touch in the Derrinstown. Granted the time was decent and he will almost certainly come on significantly for the run, I thought he very much had the run of the race and looked pretty one-paced. Totally different to the impression I got of Fame And Glory in the race last year and I would have to question whether he has the tactical pace for Epsom.
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I agree..he took a good while to get going..he's a big player..but..it might be he needs a real test..a very strong run Derby could do it...a Leger horse?..but AOB doesn't do them..he missed a trick last year with F&G..he could have won a leger..and still used the same trick he is carrying out with F&G this year..basically get load of 10f races to his name that look good on paper to say that F&G isn't just a stayer..his placing of F&G this year is a work of pure genius for stud purposes..the fact the 10f wins he is racking up have been run at ridicluos paces won't get noticed in the stud book.

he missed a trick with the leger though..as even though no one wants a stayer..they sure like a 14f horse that can mop up 10f races..what an adaptable horse he is etc
 
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EC1 said:
but none were trained by AOB - which is the whole point that was being made..AOB doesn't see the Dante as an important trial..he uses home trials for his serious chances
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I think he definitely respects it as an important trial; but for British horses. I think he's happy to send his second or third string over knowing it will give him a good line on the strength of the likely opposition. He must be pretty confident that if Workforce can't beat Cape Blanco, then he can't beat both Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch.
 
Remember that Midas Touch was supposed to go to the Dee Stakes and was rerouted to the Derrinstown when Mikhail Glinka bruised his foot.
 
I think the trials thing is over played - they ran their number 1 in that particular year, Gypsy King, at Chester while when they ran Dylan Thomas in the Derrinstown he went off at something like 20/1 for the Epsom Derby - so it is not as if they thought they were aiming their best horse at the Derrinstown then Derby route.
 
hezz said:
On what basis are people suggesting that Jan Vemeer wasn't near ready for the Curragh? I could be wrong, but at the curragh gallops of the Ballydoyle team, was it not Jan Vemeer that looked the most impressive and possibly the closest to race fitness?
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Most of you on here will be better paddock judges than me but, for what it's worth, I had a good look at Jan Vermeer in the parade ring before the Gallinule. To my untrained eye, he looked a fair bit fitter and tighter than many of the APOB horses first time out. I thought he looked an absolute picture that day, a really impressive horse and while of course he will doubtless improve for the run, I think he was fairly fit that day.

Sequoyah makes a good point about Mikhail Glinka being the original first choice for the Derrinstown. I know it's not unusual for APOB to have multiple decent performers, but, if SNA was No 1, Glinka well thought of, Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch, Cape Blanco all trial winners. Perhaps they can all be top class, I don't know.
 
it must be a coincidence that all those in Dante fail in Derby then:whistle:

its not a criticism you know..if he likes getting his best horses ready at a home track..rather than risking them travelling a long way..then thats his method..it could just be that..the ones he really likes he only sends over here when the time and target is right..could just be a travelling thing

theres no need to be precious about it really..I have no axe to grind..if he pisses me off I'll say it..if he does good he gets credit..i have no bias really.

i don't purposely post ante AOB stuff..I like the bloke..a proper horse knowledge the mans got..he is clever..most of the time..sometimes he drops major bollocks..who doesn't?
 
If he was likely to run at Epsom two weeks later, they could not have left that much to work on.

Narcotic Nora said:
Most of you on here will be better paddock judges than me but, for what it's worth, I had a good look at Jan Vermeer in the parade ring before the Gallinule. To my untrained eye, he looked a fair bit fitter and tighter than many of the APOB horses first time out. I thought he looked an absolute picture that day, a really impressive horse and while of course he will doubtless improve for the run, I think he was fairly fit that day.

Sequoyah makes a good point about Mikhail Glinka being the original first choice for the Derrinstown. I know it's not unusual for APOB to have multiple decent performers, but, if SNA was No 1, Glinka well thought of, Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch, Cape Blanco all trial winners. Perhaps they can all be top class, I don't know.
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Galileo said:
If he was likely to run at Epsom two weeks later, they could not have left that much to work on.
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Agreed. He was a very different proposition than their usual Gallinule runner. They've farmed that race with horses that weren't in the first rank (Puerto Rico, Alexander of Hales, Hebridean, Grand Ducal). This fella, to my eye, is a different class to that lot and it was clearly a case of getting a run into him before the English or French Derby (at that stage). To win as easily as he did, from 105ish horses, under a 7lb penalty, wouldn't leave him needing to find that much for Epsom, would it? The only concern would be the proximity of the races and the nagging thought that, once again, he'll be better back at the Curragh at the end of June.
 
I remember O'Brien saying that they would either get a run into Jan Vermeer and send him to Epsom or send him to Chantilly without a run. In terms of interpreting the Ballydoyle pecking order, surely the fact they "rushed" (O'Brien's words) to get a run into him speaks very positively about his chances I'd have thought.

Brilliant picture of O'Brien in the RP today by the way ~ Seanie Levey blasting a football at him, and him trying to save it with one hand. The other hand is holding the phone to his ear. :D
 
trackside528 said:
I remember O'Brien saying that they would either get a run into Jan Vermeer and send him to Epsom or send him to Chantilly without a run. In terms of interpreting the Ballydoyle pecking order, surely the fact they "rushed" (O'Brien's words) to get a run into him speaks very positively about his chances I'd have thought.

Brilliant picture of O'Brien in the RP today by the way ~ Seanie Levey blasting a football at him, and him trying to save it with one hand. The other hand is holding the phone to his ear. :D
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thought you were going to say his other hand was on the lay button on betfair :lol:

just kiddin..calm down now :)
 
Yup - the upturn in the French market definitely has something to do with this. Be interesting to see how their interest in France develops.
 
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