The Derby

Final decs -

Al Zir
At First Sight (IRE)
Azmeel
Bullet Train
Buzzword
Coordinated Cut (IRE)
Hot Prospect
Jan Vermeer (IRE)
Midas Touch
Rewilding
Ted Spread
Workforce
 
The Silver Stakes tomorrow night should give a good form pointer to Midas Touch and Jan Vermeer with both Fighting Brave and Address Unknown due to run.
 
Jan Vermeer freely available at 2/1 now...Workforce into 4/1 with Corals.

Must admit the 20/1 for Coordinated Cut does not actually look too bad. Cannot see him winning but could see him sneak a place perhaps.
 
SteveM said:
A pleasure... Not had time to look at the Oaks this year, but happy to give you any knee jerk feedback if there's anything you fancy.
Click to expand...

Steve, does Azmeel have an impressive-looking DI & CD?
That's the way the figures seemed, but then what I know about Dosage wouldn't cover a postage stamp.
 
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With the ground likely to be on the fast side of good, edging towards good tio firm, time to put up and then shut up. Here's my 100% tissue

Jan Vermeer 3/1
Rewilding 5/1
Midas Touch 13/2
Workforce 7/1
Coordinated Cut 11/1
Bullet Train 12/1
Azmeel 22/1 (the worst value in the race at current odds)
Al Zir 22/1
Buzzword 25/1
Ted Spread 50/1
At First Sight 100/1
Hot Prospect 100/1
 
mrussell said:
Steve, does Azmeel have an impressive-looking DI & CD?
That's the way the figures seemed, but then what I know about Dosage wouldn't cover a postage stamp.
Click to expand...

It puts him right where he should be. Although he has about the minimum re his points total that I would consider for a reliable reading. My doubts would be as to whether he's good enough. If you believe he is don't be put off as he ought to get the trip.
 
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davidjohnson said:
With the ground likely to be on the fast side of good, edging towards good tio firm, time to put up and then shut up. Here's my 100% tissue

Jan Vermeer 3/1
Rewilding 5/1
Midas Touch 13/2
Workforce 7/1
Coordinated Cut 11/1
Bullet Train 12/1
Azmeel 22/1 (the worst value in the race at current odds)
Al Zir 22/1
Buzzword 25/1
Ted Spread 50/1
At First Sight 100/1
Hot Prospect 100/1
Click to expand...

Agree with most of that, though not sure I'd say Azmeel is the worst value at current prices - Workforce for me. Definitely think you've got rewilding much closer to what he should be.
 
SteveM said:
It puts him right where he should be. Although he has about the minimum re his points total that I would consider for a reliable reading. My doubts would be as to whether he's good enough. If you believe he is don't be put off as he ought to get the trip.
Click to expand...

Thanks, Steve - he (Azmeel) will be in my combined exacta. ....
 
No, but according to the RP he's been drifting because the bookies are looking to take him on. Looks like he touched 4.00 on Betfair earlier but is back to 3.7 now.
 
Lydia made reference to a racecourse rumour that there was a problem with him but also stated RUK had spoken with O'Brien and he refuted any suggestion there was anything wrong with him.
 
Thanks - you have to be so carefull with these rumours. Apparenty his foot was bleeding. I think he lost a shoe at the Curragh and that was the cause.
 
It's not a very exciting looking contest is it? SNA's absence has hit the race hard.

I'm left with a cover bet on Jan Vermeer which doesn't cover all i've lost :confused:

Coordinated Cut each way looks the best value out there now.
 
Had a little bit each way on Bullet Train and Coordinated Cut. Just hope it's a good race and they all come back safe and sound.
 
It might end up a great race but it's one I find difficult to have strong views about.

So much of the build-up has centred around Ballydoyle - possibly rightly - I just wonder if we're not seeing the wood for the trees.

OK, my a/p bet on SNA is history. I don't have any other a/p bets. They've stated consistently that SNA is head and shoulders better than anything else they have yet they won the Derrinstown, Dante and Gallinule, so they have tremendous strength in depth but are any of them good enough?

I think most of our trials have been dire. The one exception was the Dante, in which Ballydoyle's Cape Blanco put up a very fast time. But Cape Blanco goes to France. Why? Do they think the others are better or are they more interested, as suggested elsewhere, in winning the French Derby?

Jan Vermeer is favourite yet wasn't even earmarked for the race until recently. I can't back him at short odds regardless of how visually impressive he was last time.

I reckon Midas Touch will do best of the Ballydoyle runners today but will he be good enough?

I keep coming back to the Dante. I'd been dismissing Workforce because he didn't win but now that I think about it he may have done exceptionally well in the circumstances. Listening to Stoute and others this morning, I can't help thinking that we might see a different horse today, in which case he might be the woods we're not seeing for the trees.

Changing analogies as readily as I've changed my views, I'm putting my eggs in one basket today but it's a basketful of hope rather than confidence. I've backed Workforce to win and Coordinated Cut to place.
 
Have had a bit on Azmeel and a bit on Coordinated Cut. Won't come close to covering my SNA bet.
 
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