The Derby

No idea what wins this, I'll be there on the day, that is the only certainty. I might go and see what the gypsies fancy if I have time.
 
Marble said:
I might go and see what the gypsies fancy if I have time.
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Each other, probably...

(Note to sensitive souls - that was meant to be a bit of light-hearted humour in much the same way as I would make similar references to the royal family.)
 
Can you try and do an early(ish) preview for next Saturday if possible Maurice ( preferably when the final decs are out) for those of us that are busy getting to Epsom on Saturday morning. Thanks in advance.
 
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I can't see how anyone can have a strong view on the race.

Red Verdon is being supplemented and if the Ballydoyle legions all run, as seems likely, the field size will probably be in the high teens and an end-to-end gallop seems likely.

I backed Deauville last year at 25/1 and Idaho this year at the same price. Each has a respectable chance on Saturday but nothing more. At the moment, I've no plans to add anything else.
 
Marble said:
Can you try and do an early(ish) preview for next Saturday if possible Maurice ( preferably when the final decs are out) for those of us that are busy getting to Epsom on Saturday morning. Thanks in advance.
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To be honest, Martin, the race just isn't grabbing my attention at the moment. In fact, it hasn't grabbed my attention at any point yet. I need to check through my accounts as somewhere in the deep recesses of my mind I may have taken Massaat after the Guineas but it didn't occur to me until my brother mentioned it to me on Saturday afternoon.

I do suspect the Guineas remains the best trial for the race but the 16/1 reportedly available on Saturday isn't there now.

I had a quick trawl through the dosage of the top 10 or so in the betting this afternoon and Massaat looks the least likely to be suited by the trip but not necessarily unsuited by it.

Much will depend on the weather this week, for me. If it's a nice week, I'll be out running, cycling, playing golf, gardening; pretty much doing anything other than studying form! :D
 
An end-to-end gallop on quick ground would be just what the doctor ordered for Wings Of Desire. Given a kindly draw, the race looks his for the taking.
 
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reet hard said:
An end-to-end gallop on quick ground would be just what the doctor ordered for Wings Of Desire. Given a kindly draw, the race looks his for the taking.
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That's a strong view. Fair enough.

I don't detect any real confidence about the horse from connections. Dettori seems quite downbeat.
 
DANTE STAKES winner Wings Of Desire was one of four horses supplemented for Saturday's Investec Derby on Monday, as 18 colts remain engaged in what is one of the most open Classics in years.
The 9-2 second favourite was added to the field along with Red Verdon, Cloth Of Stars and Humphrey Bogart, at a cost of £75,000 each.
With the supplementary fees helping contribute to the prize-money, a total fund of £1,545,000 will be on offer, making this year's Derby the richest race ever run in Britain.
If all the remaining Derby contenders stand their ground it will be the first time since 2006 that 18 runners line up for the race, which was won a decade ago by Sir Percy.
Strong O'Brien team
Aidan O'Brien still has seven runners to potentially whittle down, with The Gurkha as expected taken out.
US Army Ranger heads O'Brien's remaining entries, with Beacon Rock, Bravery, Deauville, Idaho, Port Douglas and Shogun completing his squad.
The ground was described as good, good to firm in places on Monday, but rain is forecast in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
 
gus said:
Dettori seems quite downbeat.
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Not the impression I got when he was interviewed on ch4, Saturday. Said he was already nervous anticipating the ride, and couldn't wait for the day to come.
John Gosden was unusually ebullient after the Dante, too.
 
Interesting that the last time 18 lined up it was Sir Percy who was 2nd in the 2000 Guineas who prevailed. Indeed placed horses from the 2000 have an excellent record here and I'm backing Massaat on the strength of that notwithstanding his breeding suggests he might not get home. Happy to take the chance at 14/1


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I'm with Cloth Of Stars after a closer inspection earlier.
Now I'm wondering whether his price might collapse if confidence behind US Army Ranger isn't too strong.
Bar the actual race the betting market is the most interesting thing about this event now.
 
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I was at York for the Dante and saw a couple of replays afterwards on the screens in the bars but I realised last night that I'd not watched it since and so I had a good look at the whole race again.

I now take a more optimistic view of Deauville's chance on Saturday than before. He was drawn widest of all and did quite a lot of running early on to get a position close up on the outside. He was travelling well when he took it up. Obviously, he was caught close home but he is likely to come on for the run and, as a full brother to The Corsican, he will stay 12f and could even improve for it. There's always a temptation to look at these things through rose-coloured glasses but the each-way part at least of my ante-post bet looks decent value now at 25/4.


If I give Deauville a decent chance I have to do the same for Wings Of Desire. My main concern with him is not his basic ability but whether or not he will travel well enough in a big field on a notoriously tricky track. At Wolverhampton, he'd had to be quite firmly ridden, including the jockey using his stick, to get on top although he was well on top at the finish. At York, he was pushed and niggled along at a number of stages in the race and I just wonder whether he could himself further back than Dettori would want as things hot up on Saturday.
 
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gus said:
I was at York for the Dante and saw a couple of replays afterwards on the screens in the bars but I realised last night that I'd not watched it since and so I had a good look at the whole race again.

I now take a more optimistic view of Deauville's chance on Saturday than before. He was drawn widest of all and did quite a lot of running early on to get a position close up on the outside. He was travelling well when he took it up. Obviously, he was caught close home but he is likely to come on for the run and, as a full brother to The Corsican, he will stay 12f and could even improve for it. There's always a temptation to look at these things through rose-coloured glasses but the each-way part at least of my ante-post bet looks decent value now at 25/4.


If I give Deauville a decent chance I have to do the same for Wings Of Desire. My main concern with him is not his basic ability but whether or not he will travel well enough in a big field on a notoriously tricky track. At Wolverhampton, he'd had to be quite firmly ridden, including the jockey using his stick, to get on top although he was well on top at the finish. At York, he was pushed and niggled along at a number of stages in the race and I just wonder whether he could himself further back than Dettori would want as things hot up on Saturday.
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Interesting stuff, Gus. I was unsure what to make of the Dante at first - most notably, what fractions they had gone (I find the York round course virtually impossible to judge pace for some reason..) - but I was interested to read Simon Rowlands stating that the Dante gallop was true (I haven't been arsed to go back and check myself, but the sectional points are clearly visible and I am be more than happy to take his word). That points to a positive in Deauville's direction (albeit not necessarily a negative for Wings Of Desire).

I wouldn't be 100% that Deauville gets 12f myself. Certainly, last year he indicated he was certain to get further than a mile on more than one occasion - not least when fairly comprehensively outpaced by Foundation in the Royal Lodge. He certainly travelled better in the Dante, and I still think his price is fair - and accounts for what I perceive as a mixed bag of a pedigree. That said, he certainly isn't one I would be totally sure would improve for the step up to 12f myself. All in, I was happy to take 14's a few weeks back so may just be talking myself out of it now!

I can't really make sense of the race from a punting perspective to be honest. I like U.S. Army Ranger and Ulysses, but they are absurd prices for the race. The only other one I have backed is Moonlight Magic; fantastic pedigree, bounced back last time and the vibes from Ireland seem relentless. That said, more a race to savour for me.

Just looking at pedigrees alone, has there ever been a Derby with a stronger bunch of pedigrees? They seem to be all blue bloods!
 
gus said:
If I give Deauville a decent chance I have to do the same for Wings Of Desire. My main concern with him is not his basic ability but whether or not he will travel well enough in a big field on a notoriously tricky track. At Wolverhampton, he'd had to be quite firmly ridden, including the jockey using his stick, to get on top although he was well on top at the finish. At York, he was pushed and niggled along at a number of stages in the race and I just wonder whether he could himself further back than Dettori would want as things hot up on Saturday.
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Said after the Dante that Wings O.D.'s weakness may be lack of a gear change, though that may be obviated by the large field and the extra 2f. JG also said after the race the horse had a lot of improvement in him, and I don't doubt part of that would be from the gain in experience.
To be brutally honest, I wouldn't have Deauville on my mind to turn the tables (it's rare enough on Dante form, anyway) and I'd doubt he'll be the chosen mount of RM to do so.
 
reet hard said:
Said after the Dante that Wings O.D.'s weakness may be lack of a gear change, though that may be obviated by the large field and the extra 2f. JG also said after the race the horse had a lot of improvement in him, and I don't doubt part of that would be from the gain in experience.
To be brutally honest, I wouldn't have Deauville on my mind to turn the tables (it's rare enough on Dante form, anyway) and I'd doubt he'll be the chosen mount of RM to do so.
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Have things not come in Wings Of Desire's favour with the soft ground as well? Looks sure to appreciate any give in the ground, and we could be looking at a good to soft Derby.

Would imagine it's long odds on Moore is on US Army Ranger. Which arguably makes Deauville a bigger price than he should be.
 
He's thought by connections to need fast ground, though both his siblings performed well enough on softer. Would add to the stamina test though, which has to be in his favour.
 
reet hard said:
To be brutally honest, I wouldn't have Deauville on my mind to turn the tables (it's rare enough on Dante form, anyway) and I'd doubt he'll be the chosen mount of RM to do so.
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You're probably right about this. Once I've got money on a race I find that objectivity goes out of the window. I'm against US Army Ranger on the ground that he didn't come out of his trial as the best horse at the weights but I'm trying to talk up Deauville despite him being defeated fair and square in the Dante at levels.

I suppose I can always fall back on the "at the prices" line.
 
Levey was saying exactly the same on the front page of today's paper re Humphrey Bogart. It's clearly an open race so everybody thinks they're going to win now
 
Cloth of Stars for me. I can't imagine Fabre has persuaded the owners to supplement for the day out. He won the Prix La Force under a hands & heels ride, and turned the tables on Robin of Navan readily in the Greffulhe with a nice turn of foot, having apparently learnt how to settle better since that horse beat him in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. He worked well at the Breakfast with the Stars so the track shouldn't hold any fears, and he's bred to stay being by Sea The Stars out of a Kingmambo/Shirley Heights mare.
 
I am fascinated that Ulysses, a very dark horse , is running but I am with Wings of Desire . I think the 1m 4f will suit him and judging by Sariska he won't mind the softened ground . Agree about the French horse as a threat - not at all sure what to make of the Chester Vase form but would be far from surprised to see Port Douglas do a Treasure Beach and go close .
 
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