The Derby

I'm in the camp of thinking how Midterm was the star of Freemason Lodge until his failure in the Dante and now suddenly it's Ulysses.

As for Cloth Of Stars, his last run may be evidence that he's finally learnt to settle but if he reverts to his previous ways over a trip which is 2F further then he's going to have run his race up that 40 meter climb from the start. Look at what it did for Dawn Approach.
 
RYAN MOORE will partner market drifter US Army Ranger in the Investec Derby, trainer Aidan O'Brien-trained revealed to the Racing Post on Wednesday evening.
Coolmore's retained rider, who has won the Derby on Workforce and Ruler Of The World, will team up with Chester Vase winner US Army Ranger despite that colt's odds having been pushed out to 11-2 at the same time stablemate Deauville was forced into a general 8-1.
The mount on Deauville has gone to Jamie Spencer, the first-choice jockey for horses owned in Britain by Fitri Hay, who shares the colt with the Coolmore partners.
Idaho will be ridden by Seamie Heffernan, with Colm O'Donoghue on Port Douglas. The trainer's son Donnacha O'Brien will have his first Derby ride on Shogun.
The master of Ballydoyle, who also revealed Moore will be on Bravery in Sunday's Prix du Jockey Club, in which Black Sea could also line up, added: "A decision about Beacon Rock being declared for the Derby will be made in the morning. He may wait for the King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot."
Very much on course for the Derby is Kirsten Rausing's Goodwood winner Algometer, whose trainer David Simcock said on Wednesday night: "Kirsten has decided she is very keen to run. I'm desperate to run as well because he's in tremendous order and it's a very open year. He'll also be comfortable on the ground. Jim Crowley will ride."
 
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Thought USAR only did what he had to in the Vase, and will prove much the best of Aidan's army
Ground now 'soft, g/s in places', which suggests it'll be no quicker than g/s by Saturday. JG's insisted that WOD needs fast ground to be at his best, but may still be good enough anyway. He trained full brother Eagle Top to finish 2nd in a mediocre King George on soft (round course), which was his highest ever RPR, and said afterwards "he coped with it", and his full sister, The Lark, finished 3rd in the Oaks on similar g/s.
The race is still between the above 2 imo, but that's hardly a secret, according to the market.
 
Forget the Derby, Second Step is a huge price in the Coronation Cup. Doesn't have that much to find with the principals and ran really well in the Yorkshire Cup where a combination of going too soon and the trip did for him. He shouldn't be 8 pts longer than Arabian Queen, she doesn't stay.
 
reet hard said:
Thought USAR only did what he had to in the Vase, and will prove much the best of Aidan's army.
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You're probably right. Moore's decision and the betting both point to that.

I'm always slightly reluctant to accept the "just did what he had to" interpretation, though. In USAR's case it would seem to involve him saying to himself in the course of the final furlong: "I think I'll smoke this cigar now as Seamie's not going to be too busy on Doug."
 
US Army Ranger is a bigger price now than straight after Chester, yet the Derby if anything now looks weaker. Sometimes difficult with horses like this where the temptation has been to be against them on price for so long, when as it stands now, 5/1 doesn't looks particularly short at all.
 
gus said:
I'm always slightly reluctant to accept the "just did what he had to" interpretation, though. In USAR's case it would seem to involve him saying to himself in the course of the final furlong: "I think I'll smoke this cigar now as Seamie's not going to be too busy on Doug."
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My view is that RM had the 2nd beaten, and then did just enough to stay in front. Had PD come back at him, he'd have found the required - and both jockeys accepted that, which is fair enough considering they were stablemates running in a trial.
 
skybet 5 places in the derby (1/5)

e/w doubling something with found in the coronation cup could be a smart play
 
Misty morning at Epsom will delay any drying for a bit; just as well the race is off at 4.30.
Little did i think I would ever see two Cork maiden winners Moonlight Magic and Harzand having a Derby winning chance yet the racecourse web site makes no mention of it no more than they mentioned Jett Setting's Irish 1000 Gns win.
To think they wonder why people do not go racing !
 
Last night I wrote:

Having taken Massaat during the week at 14/1, I see 16/1 readily available and 18/1 in one place so my emotions are already mixed just over 18 hours ahead of the race: I don’t know whether to cry or boke. Might this be the worst Derby of modern times? Even worse than Oath’s?? Marrying the market leaders with their ratings makes for uncomfortable reading so I can’t have US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire, Ulysses, Deauville or Harzand. That’s five of the front six scrubbed on the grounds of value alone. Horses rated around 110 just do not win the Derby so most of these have masses of improvement to make. Cloth Of Stars has to rate the main danger. Surely the French 3yos cannot be as poor as ours? This leads to the outsider to bet: Red Verdon. His stablemate Robin Of Navan – not running here – was joint-favourite with and second to Cloth Of Stars in the Greffuhle but Red Verdon, who had to be supplemented, appears preferred with Robin Of Navan waiting for Chantilly where he’d be on to a plum bonus as he’s French bred. That might be all there is to it but I’m willing to pay to find out at 25/1 or more.
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gus said:
I'd very surprised if it turns out to be the "worst Derby in modern times" but it's not something that can be assessed prior to the race taking place.
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Yes of course.

Maybe someone with the wherewithall to check these things can where OR116 stands regarding the highest rated runner or OR107 stands as the average rating for the field.

Half of this field might well be a lot better than we've seen but if they're not we could be staring into the abyss of mediocrity.

As an aside, I should point out that I've been contacted to point out that Red Verdon and Robin Of Navan are not stablemates. My bad, even though I'm sure I double-checked earlier in the week.
 
The two I am most against in the race are Ulysses (on value grounds) and Massaat (on stamina grounds) and I've laid both of them for a place on Betfair.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Moore gave the favourite a lot to do - shades of Greville Starkey!
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I know Golden Horn came from way back last year after they went off mad quick but putting a horse that far back in the Derby is asking for trouble . Harzand ,however, found when an AOB hotpot came to him rather like his dad .
 
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