The Derby

A

Ardross

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 8, 2007
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Is there a thread on this ? I cannot see one.

Whilst Saxon Warrior was an impressive winner of the Guineas and his pedigree would mean one would expect him to get the trip it is not such a one horse race as suggested albeit he would be my choice .

He is a big horse and who knows how well he will come down the hill ? For the Epsom classics generally the media and bookies seem to take an absurdly certain view that AOB is bound to win. The two AOB horses that were beaten at LIngfield on Saturday were ridiculously short and the ITV team especially Chaparse ruled out Perfect Clarity and Knight to Behold simply on the basis it seemed of their connections ( and the latter pinching the race off the turn) .

No doubt on that basis they would have regarded Look Here as a no-hoper at Epsom for example. Imagine how short K to B would be if he were trained by Michael Stoute.

The same seems to apply to Hazapour's win yesterday.

I still think Saxon Warrior will win mind but it would be good if another challenger emerged to the AOB dominance from the Dante this week .
 
Julian Muscat on ATR's Sunday Forum yesterday seemed very sweet on a horse called Young Rascal , no idea if JM is a judge or not.
 
As far as I know it was JM who got the job of BHA handicapper when I applied for it many years ago. I don't think he stayed too long in the job but I may be mixing him up with someone else with similar initials.
 
Not him Mo, he worked on various stud farms then entered journalism, primarily with The Times.

Never knew you had applied for that Mo btw.
 
Young Rascal is a legitimate contender.

If one looks at the nascent stride patterns and cadence research that Simon Rowlands is doing you would have your doubt whether SW will actually stay.
Currently way too short in any case
I find this potential angle one of the more interesting of the last years.
Sectionals are old hat to anyone growing up on American racing.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Not him Mo, he worked on various stud farms then entered journalism, primarily with The Times.

Never knew you had applied for that Mo btw.
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Indeed I did, DG.

In fact, I still have the ad on file:

HANDICAPPER

Home-based
Competitive Salary + car + benefits

The British Horseracing Board has been the sport’s
governing body since 1993. We work closely with
our partners in The Jockey Club, the regulatory body,
to promote and develop the appeal and integrity of
British Racing.

Now we can offer what has to be an ideal role for a
serious racing enthusiast. You’ll be one of only a handful
of professionals who attend the races, analyse the form
and use their judgement to provide the Flat and Jump
Official Handicap Ratings that keep the fairness and
excitement in the sport.

We’ll provide you with the computer, audio visual and other
office equipment you’ll need to ensure you have access to
all the information for your assessments and evaluations
from home, but a key element of your job will be travelling
to meetings in your region and further afield – liaising with
Stewards, Race Officials, Trainers, other horseracing
professionals and the Media. You’ll also help to evaluate
the performances of horses in certain international races.

A thorough knowledge of horseracing is essential –
preferably with a professional background in the sport,
although training can be provided to develop your
awareness in key areas. What cannot be taught is a natural
flair for analysing and interpreting data, coupled with the
instinct and initiative to reach sound judgements. You’ll
also need real strength of character, integrity, diplomacy
and the willingness to work irregular hours, with some
nights away from home.

In return you can expect a competitive salary and a
comprehensive benefits package including a car, travel
expenses, pension, private medical cover and permanent health
insurance. To apply, please write with your CV to:
Click to expand...

If they offered me the job today I'd probably take it but only if it didn't go to interview. I'm in a position to make demands of my own!
 
I was on Dee ex Bee in the Vase and don't really understand why Young Rascal is getting all the love from that race. That said I'd prefer the Johnston horse for the Edward VII.

At this stage Saxon Warrior looks very solid and my ap money looks done on The Pentagon but I will probably back Hazapour on the day.
 
Euronymous said:
I was on Dee ex Bee in the Vase and don't really understand why Young Rascal is getting all the love from that race.
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Don't know about the love but I can offer up several reasons why I rate him.

The horse is a real equine athlete. Watch the Chester race and see how many different dynamics he is faced with in 2.5 minutes with that little experience beforehand.
Right up to where he goes in the gap between Ispolini and Dee ex Bee in the stretch run with his head sideways for brief moments.
Was slightly behind the Johnston horse when he started that run and ran all the way to the wire with real ease in the end.
Real nimble all the way around the track, he'll have little problems at Epsom

This horse has increased his numbers across the board in leaps and bounds in his last two races.
I already had him on a Grp. 3 speed figure after his maiden run at Newbury.
He can go forward again and if his progression stays the same as his last two races he'll win the Derby easily.
If not, he is still in with a very live chance.

Love his sire Intello. One of the few really top notch Galileos to run on the continent.
Totally underrated as a race horse imo. From 8 to 12 furlongs world class. Truly versatile and just a pleasure to watch racing.
Th irony if he turns out to be the best offspring of Galileo at stud.

Zero concern about him getting the trip with speed to go with it.

Some people might consider this laughable but Jimmy Doyle is a big plus in my opinion.
Still underrated for whatever reason but he 's got all the goods necessary to win the Derby.

Haggas cannot be a negative.

Finally looking at the Ballydoyle landscape this year based on initial results it is not looking like a banner year which of course would still be the year of a lifetime for most other trainers.
They seemed to put a lot of time and energy into their Kentucky adventure or maybe this crop is just not that good but aside from the Warrior I'm not overly impressed, albeit it is still early.
 
brendanr said:
Finally looking at the Ballydoyle landscape ... maybe this crop is just not that good but aside from the Warrior I'm not overly impressed, albeit it is still early.
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Isn't this becoming the norm with Ballydoyle at this stage of the season? No shortage of seemingly disappointing runs only for them to start flying from the Derby meeting on.
 
Could be but I can only judge what is in the here and now. Past seasonal results are what they are.

The 4 horses O'Brien has named as sure starters for the Derby fail to intimidate.
SW is an imposing horse with a lot of talent but for me the verdict on him in the Derby is split.
He has not really put in an impressive timefigure yet but he is a big beast of a thing who will surely get better, which he will need to do.
The others would not frighten me in the least.

Looking at last year's race the best horse did not win, was not even second, so experience can count for a lot and that O'Brien's horses have.
 
My worry would be if the young whippersnapper Donnacha O'Brien was to ride Saxon.

I am not up to date but the kid riding a horse who would be worth millions more if he wins at Epsom..well it would not be me.

Like the Mullins duo David and Danny who wouldn't get a ride at a flapping track but for the connections blood is thicker than water.

That said he's way too inexperienced to be given the mount.........has he even been to Epsom.

There's also the problem that horses rapidly improve and sometimes Guineas for is rubbish by the end of the season.

Boy rides it I'll lay it
 
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Tanlic said:
My worry would be if the young whippersnapper Donnacha O'Brien was to ride Saxon.

I am not up to date but the kid riding a horse who would be worth millions more if he wins at Epsom..well it would not be me.

Like the Mullins duo David and Danny who wouldn't get a ride at a flapping track but for the connections blood is thicker than water.

That said he's way too inexperienced to be given the mount.........has he even been to Epsom.

There's also the problem that horses rapidly improve and sometimes Guineas for is rubbish by the end of the season.

Boy rides it I'll lay it
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Time to move on to other pastures if Moore does not ride
Won't happen though. Ballydoyle employs Moore for these moments.
Only way he does not ride is if he is dead or in a full body cast.

It's like Ruby for Mullins.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Julian Muscat on ATR's Sunday Forum yesterday seemed very sweet on a horse called Young Rascal , no idea if JM is a judge or not.
Click to expand...

I meant to add as an aside, they read out an email from Jon who "looks after the owners and trainers at Brighton". Must have been from our old friend Krizon I assume.
 
The race gets a bit more interesting as Gosden confirms Roaring Lion goes here. I've just taken the 7/1 as while I think SW is still the most likely winner I prefer the 7s about RL than I do odds on about the fav.
 
Ardross said:
Whilst Saxon Warrior was an impressive winner of the Guineas and his pedigree would mean one would expect him to get the trip it is not such a one horse race as suggested albeit he would be my choice .
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Does his pedigree necessarily entitle him to get the trip? I don't think his dam Maybe would have got a mile and a half and her progeny thus far have seemed better over shorter. The second dam was a sprinter as well. I'm no pedigree expert and you would think a Deep Impact out of a Galileo mare would get the trip, but the way he quickened to the front in the Guineas had me wondering. If he gets the mile and a half he could be a monster.

I liked Hazapour in the Derrinstown - quickened nicely and has the right profile. 16's looks more than fair to me.
 
I agree with you trackside on both counts.
Just because a horse stays a mile at two does not necessarily mean he will be better over further later in life.
His acceleration at Newmarket looked stunning to be sure.
 
I don't think the Guineas, form-wise, was anything special and I'm not convinced the trip will suit either.

I'm more than happy with my ante-post bets on The Pentagon as the form has been franked repeatedly. I do think we will see a completely different animal on Derby day.
 
Thanks, Euro. I haven't been checking that. (Hasn't really entered my head as I am on holiday and not really following the racing.)

I suppose it has to be a concern although any word that Moore was opting for Saxon Warrior would guarantee a drift for TP.

It may be that Saxon Warrior is Hawk Wing to The Pentagon's High Chaparral.
 
Going change at Epsom at 7.37am

Good to Soft, Good in places after a dry night and morning. GoingStick readings: 6.2 overall. Home Straight - stands' side 5.9, far side 5.6 at 7am
 
I keep looking at the Guineas result and cant get past thinking how damn ordinary a race it looked....if aob had thought his was really special you would not have gotten a sniff at the 3/1 offered. It may be better looking for an improver and we may well have already seen one in Roaring Lion....he looked a stone better last time than he did at Newmarket and if he improves yet again he might kick Saxon out of the park....12 on the machine ew looks the bet or if you feel the win part is lost he is bigger to be in the 3 than saxon is to win
 
Hoping Delano Roosevelt will turn out to be the AOB improver here.


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I was applauding the winner from a fair way out. I had a big rating for it in the Craven and thought about backing it the other day when it was over 20/1 but had lost enough already ante-post on the race.

What the form will amount to, though, is another matter. Probably a good, solid winner rather than anything special.
 
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