The Dewhurst

I love hearing stories about wonder gallops 2/3 days before a race - usually forces the price down when it lessens their chances in reality.
 
I'd be amazed if he got near them Hamm. Can't see him getting near the first two - I thought he won his maiden due to another enterprising Heffernan ride from the front.

Lets hope Queally's packed his parachute.
 
There will rarely be a market more wrong than if Frankel goes back to 8/15 or 1/2 - it is absurd. He has nothing in the book which suggests he should be odds on, and his price is largely down to pure hype. He has the form to challenge Dream Ahead, but that is it. The market suggests he has shown superior form when he absolutely has not, and it is he who needs to improve, not Dream Ahead. And, I would always prefer a horse stepping up rather than down in distance, especially for a race like the Dewhurst.

As per above posts, I like Saamidd, but can't for the life of me see why Dream Ahead isn't favourite. Lets hope the Post followers continue reading the headlines and bet accordingly, and make the market even more skewed!
 
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Aragorn said:
I'd be amazed if he got near them Hamm. Can't see him getting near the first two - I thought he won his maiden due to another enterprising Heffernan ride from the front.

Lets hope Queally's packed his parachute.
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When you consider he is 4th favourite and the most likely to take advantage of any of the front 3 not running to form/hype, 5 or 6/1 that 1 of the front 3 fails to perform (or that he improves, he is massively unexposed) is the best bet I will have at Newmarket.
 
I do not think Roderic was flattered to win that maiden and I said it at the time when many thought he was given too much rope.
 
Yeah but Hamm - It will only pay two places so you need two not to perform?

Gal, I thought MOH was gaining hand over fist at the end and would have beaten him if he'd been closer. I thought that about Misty for Me in the Moyglare though and she proved me wrong in the Marcel Boussac - She was a second string as well in the Moyglare.
 
If you bet antepost when there were more than 8 horses declared, the place part of the bet will win if your horse is one of the first 3 home. Hence, the race cutting up is quite a nice thing.
 
Hamm said:
If you bet antepost when there were more than 8 horses declared, the place part of the bet will win if your horse is one of the first 3 home. Hence, the race cutting up is quite a nice thing.
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You've basically got 13/2 about something which is now about a 3/1 shot, i.e. him coming in the first three if you've backed him at 33s.

It's not the kind of bet which will keep your online betting accounts open for long but over a year, you'd show a great profit backing EW in races where you will clearly be better off at the place prices.
 
Hamm said:
There will rarely be a market more wrong than if Frankel goes back to 8/15 or 1/2 - it is absurd. He has nothing in the book which suggests he should be odds on, and his price is largely down to pure hype. He has the form to challenge Dream Ahead, but that is it. The market suggests he has shown superior form when he absolutely has not, and it is he who needs to improve, not Dream Ahead. And, I would always prefer a horse stepping up rather than down in distance, especially for a race like the Dewhurst.

As per above posts, I like Saamidd, but can't for the life of me see why Dream Ahead isn't favourite. Lets hope the Post followers continue reading the headlines and bet accordingly, and make the market even more skewed!
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HE has achieved a better speed figure than Dream Ahead - on the bridle (at Doncaster). Although the Racing Post have been ramping up the gallop reports in the last couple of days, I can't have Frankel as a hype horse - his last two performances have been absolutely exceptional - and the clock provides plenty of evidence that he is one of the best 2yos we have ever seen.
 
HE has achieved a better speed figure than Dream Ahead - on the bridle (at Doncaster).
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For the sake of balance, I feel I should point out that not all time-raters would agree with this.

Timeform, for instance, have Dream Ahead with a tfig of 120 and Frankel with one of 115 (at Doncaster), though apparently someone associated with them reckons the latter's sectionals show him to be capable of much better than that.
 
J Alfred Prufrock said:
For the sake of balance, I feel I should point out that not all time-raters would agree with this.

Timeform, for instance, have Dream Ahead with a tfig of 120 and Frankel with one of 115 (at Doncaster), though apparently someone associated with them reckons the latter's sectionals show him to be capable of much better than that.
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Fair enough - Professor Whitley likes the Doncaster time. Whatever, given the ridiculous ease of victory at Donny, it was a hell of a time?
 
tdk said:
Fair enough - Professor Whitley likes the Doncaster time. Whatever, given the ridiculous ease of victory at Donny, it was a hell of a time?
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Now you're taking time off what he actually clocked because he won easily?

Whatever next..

We should deal in facts when discussing time not ease of victory..
 
Hamm said:
Now you're taking time off what he actually clocked because he won easily?

Whatever next..

We should deal in facts when discussing time not ease of victory..
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Not to mention that Dream Ahead's Morny win was quicker than any of Frankel's runs on the clock.
 
The RP have a massive hard-on because they called Workforce right, they're due a fall.

The prices are absurd, 1/2 suggests he has a 66% chance of winning the race, I wouldn't even put him with a 50% chance. He's got a very very good colt as 2nd fav and an unexposed 3rd fav (who I think has no chance but he's still overpriced given his ease of wins) and a 4th fav trained by a genius who made all and won as easily as you liked last time out.

Frankel is without doubt a top class colt but he should be about 11/10 imo.
 
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