The Dewhurst

As much as New Approach? I loved that horse but he'd have gotten turned over in this without much cut.

I can't have Dream Ahead on the ground and Saamidd looks the value at around 6s on the machine.
 
Had a good look at this tonight - think i get a good idea of these 3 horses now..playing catch up :)

It appeared to me initially that Frankel has a lot of speed...but.. has he just shown a lot of speed against 8f horses??.. his breeding suggests stayer rather than speed horse at 3..imo

I checked since 1988 and not one Dewhurst winner had ever competed at 8f..nevermind won at it..nevermind running twice at it.

I find it a bit concerning that he is the only horse that his trainer thought 8f for his 2yo..then runs it in the Dewhurst.

so yes..it appears he has a lot of speed..appears...that burst at Ascot could have been the oppo making him look speedy...but his finishing time suggests that stamina kicked in big in the straight for him to keep going and recording such a good sectional. Speed would have got him past the others..but it wouldn't have sustained it.

Rainbow Springs has since shown that even over 8f on slow ground she got outpaced..so beating her over 7 wasn't displaying speed either.

I think the flaw in Frankel..if there is one..is that he could get outspeeded tomorrow.

on paper..he isn't better than Dream Ahead..and Saamid isn't a slouch...at odds on..i'll lay Frankel tomorrow...and bet that Cecil says after the race tomorrow that the Dewhurst was a chance he was prepared to take and that the horse will be better over further than this 7f even at this stage in his career.

thats my view anyway..shoot holes in that :)
 
Last edited:
Jim McGrath on the Morning Line made me laugh when he said that Dream Ahead's form would have won 5 of the last 5 Dewhursts but failed to acknowledge that so would Frankel's.
 
I can't think of a more fascinating race on the flat from recent memory. I was siding with Shammidd last night because he has fewer questions to answer in terms of the conditions today. The other two are stepping down or up in trip and does Galileo really get 7f Group 1 winners even at 2. I'm swayed by Dream Ahead again because of the rain last night and Shammidd lacks that look of brilliance that the other two have. There really shouldn't be much jar in the ground.
 
Last edited:
Dream Ahead seems to be viewed as a doubtful stayer - why would softer ground help him if that is the case?

IF DA does need slow ground ...then getting it is a plus..but it also makes the race a tougher stamina test..which appears to be a negative
 
Last edited:
The record of Middle Park winners back to 1988 doesn't inspire much confidence in Dream Aheads chance's..only Johannasburg won at 7f+ as a 2yo after running in it...Rodrigo had won at 7 before...in fact the record of those attemting 7f+ is absolutely dire..even when at the front end of the market for the Dewhurst

I can't have Dream Ahead..I can't have Frankel dropping back in trip.

so instead of laying Frankel..I'm going for a confident bet on SAAMIDD
 
EC1 said:
The record of Middle Park winners back to 1988 doesn't inspire much confidence in Dream Aheads chance's
Click to expand...

Not many Middle Park winners have this boys class. And a lot of them were obvious sprinters. I don't see him as a doubtful stayer, but to me he does hit the ground hard so I was concerned about any jar.
 
Euronymous said:
Not many Middle Park winners have this boys class. And a lot of them were obvious sprinters. I don't see him as a doubtful stayer, but to me he does hit the ground hard so I was concerned about any jar.
Click to expand...

not sure what you mean by class..but there have been some decent MP winners..and all have failed in this race..and all bar J failed at further..even as 3yo 90%+ were sprinter types

yes he might be the exception..but purely on profiling he is has a low % chance of fitting the profile of whats need to win a dewhurst

i actually think he is a place lay
 
Are people thinking too hard to avoid coming up with the obvious?

How many horses get a stream of "wows" after a race from the knowledgeable people on this board and beyond. It wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if he's beaten, he has two worthy opponents, but for me there are only a handful of horses in the last 20 years that really looked in his "wow" league - Danzatore, Warning, Arazi, Zafonic off the top of my head. I've probably forgotten ones that went on to disappoint, but most of them were as good as they looked.

If it looks like a fish and smells like a fish, it's probably a fish.
 
Melendez said:
Are people thinking too hard to avoid coming up with the obvious?

How many horses get a stream of "wows" after a race from the knowledgeable people on this board and beyond. It wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if he's beaten, he has two worthy opponents, but for me there are only a handful of horses in the last 20 years that really looked in his "wow" league - Danzatore, Warning, Arazi, Zafonic off the top of my head. I've probably forgotten ones that went on to disappoint, but most of them were as good as they looked.

If it looks like a fish and smells like a fish, it's probably a fish.
Click to expand...

i didn't get a wow though..i saw a horse run past horses after basically walking for 5f..then outstay them to the line..those horses he nipped past are miling type 2yo's who got caught totally flat footed..thats exaggerated the whole race..and caused people to go wow...imo

if i am wrong..then i'll be first to admit it..but a lot of people don't look deep enough into..what caused the wow..is it something special?..or is just the mechanics of a race tricking the eye?
 
was their tailwind yesterday? - if anyone was there - i'm guessing there was

and..if someone is there today could you say if there is a tailwind or headwind..first race time could help us in sussing the ground then
 
Last edited:
Are we going to get a true run race? A soft pace over 7f would be against Frankel in this company.
 
I can see reasons to oppose all of them so I won't bet. I'll just watch and take in the action and saviour the best 2yo race I've seen in my time.
 
Wow - Frankel is an absolute beast. Saying that, the two main ones didn't run very well, but that was still impressive.
 
Last edited:
good workmanlike performance

Saamidd may as well have not run..acted up and pulled hard

we should get a good measure via the clock..re the challenge stakes
 
Disappointing overall, glad Frankel has won but the other two have run nowhere near to form on first impression
 
Back
Top