The Dewhurst

I am excited and there is no doom in my post - I just think Frankel has been massively overrated, and I fancy Saamidd, Dream Ahead and Roderico to run really big races.
 
trends for the Dewhurst:
• Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 8.7F to 11.2F
• By a son of or out of a daughter of Sadlers Wells or Danehill
• Won last time out and posted highest RPR
• Won over 7F
• Won a group race
• Ran in the National Stakes and/or Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere
• Trained by Jim Bolger or Aidan OBrien



And the level of form, Frankel fits most of the trends
 
How many of those had won their Group race over a mile?

Your trends seem to be selected to fit around Frankel, rather than the other way round.
 
I didnt do the trends

I dont think a drop form the mile is ideal but Frankel looks the one with more scope


about the form
I think his form is rock solid
in fact could ahve posted 130 by now


in the doncaster race , beat a fillie 3rd in the boussac , giving her almost a stone by 13 lenghts in a canter beating the course record.


about the Royal Lodge
the form of Klammer has been boosted in France and looks solid form for me.
 
The more I look at it the more I do think it is actually Frankel's form that is more solid than Dream Ahead. Ground and trip have to be a big concern for the Diktat colt.
 
Aragorn said:
Why not get excited chaps instead of picking holes in everything as usual.

I personally cannot wait and am uber excited about saturday.
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I don't see how getting stuck into an odds-on shot in a massive race and being excited about the sport of it are mutually exclusive things. Frankel looks an awesome specimen but he ain't a bombproof Sea the Stars type yet.
 
I didn't say they were.

I just said people are being pessimistic about the hype and build up - I'm not getting stuck into at odds on (I'll be smashing into Vision D'Etat on saturday), in fact I probably won't even have a bet but i'm very excited by these colts and if the racing post want to go mad about it then i'm all for it.

I never said Frankel was bomb proof either, just that his rating (as well as dream aheads) can be justified.

Better than last years Dewhurst anyway!!! In fact the last two have been poor.
 
I'm with you. Really looking forward to the race, think Saamidd would be near evens in other years, but there are opportunities (each way if nothing else) with the way the market currently is. I see less than 8 maybe turning up.
 
This race is almost certain to be impossible to rate afterwards. If Frankel wins by a head, are the others really good or is he not so good? If he wins by 3l plus, have they all run their race?

If the finishing positions are as follows:

Native Khan
Frankel (btn 1l)
Roderic O Connor (1l further back)
Saamidd (2l further back)
Dream Ahead (2l further back)
Elzaam (hd further back)

Is Native Khan the best 2yo ever?
 
Personally i am happy to look forward to to what in theory should be a top class 2yold race, i am in frankel camp on what i have seen so far, he does have to step up again but there is no reason why he cant if he is top cass he should be able to win at this trip whatever happens it is good that the connections of other dangers are having a go rather than dodge each other.
 
Dream Ahead definitely runs, Simcock gone back on what he said after the Middle Park about the ground but a fantastic race.
 
Just watched races and read through the form of the Dewhurst principals again - Saamidd looks the one who was by far the most green and I think he will improve the most. Frankel beat absolutely nothing. Dream Ahead looked incredible (and was) but ground going against him (you would have to think it didn't show Strong Suit at his best) and all the winners that day were by huge margins. I think Saamidd will be another each way bet; was really taken by him watching it again. I think he will be something special.
 
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Euronymous said:
Either laying him or backing something against him.
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Not really - I don't think the prices are too far out. Dream Ahead purely on form should be shorter but i'd be concerned about a) his knee action b) his sire, breeding & trip (Rajeem who was a Diktat out of a cadeaux generaux mare does give hope he'll get it though) and c) the confidence eminating from every bugger in newmarket about Frankel. O'Brien's spiel you always take with a pinch of salt but when Cecil is confident (Or as confident or bullish as he ever will be) and the gallop watchers and his racecourse performance back it up, you have to take heed.

No bet race for me but i'll have a small interest just for the excitement!!
 
Hamm said:
Just watched races and read through the form of the Dewhurst principals again - Saamidd looks the one who was by far the most green and I think he will improve the most. Frankel beat absolutely nothing. Dream Ahead looked incredible (and was) but ground going against him (you would have to think it didn't show Strong Suit at his best) and all the winners that day were by huge margins. I think Saamidd will be another each way bet; was really taken by him watching it again. I think he will be something special.
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Funny how opinions differ, as you know Hamm I was a massive fan of this horse after his maiden but his last run fills me with doubt. He ran pretty straight throughout I thought but he didn;t look to have that much in hand at the end over Approve (Who was giving him weight) and his head was high. I would say though that he has the most growing and filling out to do as he's quite lean so I would expect him to improve. Dream Ahead was the most green I thought - All over the place in most of his races.. He hasn't got any better which has to be a worry and you're right there were many wide margin winners that day.

Frankel did beat the Marcel Boussac third 10l giving her a stone at Donny in a time much faster than Saamidd.... It was her first run but the time was impressive.

Fascinating race which is provoking great debate and hopefully the principals all turn up and run their race so there are no unanswered questions.
 
The Stan Moore horse in the Royal Lodge had been much much closer to Wootton Bassett at Donny too than he was to Frankel at Ascot.
 
According to today's Racing Post, Frankel beat Cecil (who was in a Mercedes going as fast as he could) by 40 lengths.
 
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