The election 2015

I'd imagine he's the candidate the Tories feared most, but to suggest he wasn't comfortable with the scrutiny is a laughable excuse. For crying out loud, the leader of the Labour party is by definition a candidate for the job of Prime Minister, is he really asking us to believe that he's only just discoverd in the last 3 days that people might subject him to a degree of interogation? It's not credible.

Labour = dodgy finance
Tory = dodgy sex life
 
Burnham knocking on even money now.

Any chance this Hunt chap could take this Warbler? Doesn't strike me as leader material. Then again not sure who does. Plus Ed managed to wrangle it.
 
Frankel said:
Burnham knocking on even money now.

Any chance this Hunt chap could take this Warbler? Doesn't strike me as leader material. Then again not sure who does. Plus Ed managed to wrangle it.
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Second guessing the logic of Labour is never easy! and I'm no expert

Hunt won't have any traction with the Unions, nor anyone really. He's not really 'one of us'.

A big part of the question Labour should be asking (and won't be doing) is who are they going to be facing in 2020, what will the economy look like, and what are the issues of the day likely to be (you can't win an election on the back of the NHS). To some extent it's the Dave Brailsford approach of working out what a successful team will look like at a future date, and working towards it.

Cameron has said he won't seek a third term. Most commentators think it's inconceivable that he can expect to campaign for a third term and then step down for someone else. Surely to God he has to go before, and allow someone to take over for 18 months? The Euro referendum would seem to be an ideal break point. Who will that someone be though?

May, Osborne, or Boris (don't discount Gove, and I wouldn't be shocked to see someone like Liam Fox floating about)

Chancellors have a good record of inheriting. I have little doubt that Labour would most want to face Teresa May, but people who covet the leadership a bit too much don't normally have a good track record of getting it. Boris might be a laugh, but I suspect the party will stop short of giving him the ultimate job. Osborne will also carry Cameron's endorsement

Osborne will fight a negative camapign based on fear, but will also use the economy as his platform. His weakness though is he lacks personal charisma and warmth (not as bad as is often imagined in truth). If Labour puts up a replica candidate, the country will choose the devil they know over the devil they don't

Tristan Hunt is an Oxbridge academic who could play out well with the swing voters of the Midlands. He shouldn't be embarrassed in debate. He's not stupid (although prone to the odd gaff thinking out aloud as teachers will remember)

Yvette Cooper would potentially give Cameron something to think about. Cameron can come across as patronising and a bully. That's fine against Miliband, but will play out badly if he does it against a woman (even Ed Balls wife), but will Cameron be there?

I'd have thought Tristan Hunt is more likely to win the election than any of them (that's a relative 'more likely' though), but your bet will require the college to realise this. He wouldn't have a natural base in any of the core blocs however. The lead time might help him as they'll have to have a debate about whether they're electing someone because he represents their interests, or are they representing someone who is most likely to win. It could be Blair versus Prescott versus Beckett all over again

If you can get a double figure price, he's worth a rattle I'd have thought, but you're relying on the labour college to think about this decision strategically rather than emotively

It's also worth noting some other things about the conditions necessary to change a government. I think we've had three in my living memory.

On each occasion a certain zeitgeist was apparent at least 12 months before polling day. You need someone with a fresh face to help generate this air of optimism and change. Miliband never generated that at any point. Also the ursurper was always younger than the tired incumbant and managed to capture a sense of dynamic energy. I really don't see Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper being able to do this. Neither has a dynamic zest, neither does Hunt for that matter, but he has the most potential to generate one. He's the nearest thing Labour has to David Cameron, and under the circumstances should have more appeal than George Osborne when it comes to the undecideds who can often cast their vote on spurious things.

My guess is that Yvette Cooper will win, and the Tories will be pleased
 
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He is double figure price. Emm

Cooper is a clear 2nd fav :blink: that just astounds me. No chance with her leading the way imo.
 
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He's not a certain runner is he? There is a drift on him which would indicate he's not going to line up. Chukka's withdrawal would help him though (mind you, that's a bit like saying it helps all of them!)
 
Said he was interested and would consult party members.
The 16s and 18s have now gone. 12/1 now.
 
Think dan jarvis and ummuna just biding their time there's very little chance of the new leader lasting long,as soon as a few by elections go by and little impact on voters one of these will lead them into election looks a certainty to me just a matter of when!!
 
Despite the fact that she once glanced me a pleasant smile when taking her (First Class) seat on the Kings Cross rattler at Doncaster Yvette Cooper doesn't do too much for me; but she's coped adequately as shadow to Theresa May, which serves as a decent apprenticeship for leg-up to Leader of The Opposition

If the feminine of Gentlemanly is Ladylike then the May/Cooper banter in the House has certainly been ladylike; so on the assumption that Cameron is true to his word and jacks in the Premiership sometime this parliament it would be quite nice if May took over as PM and had Cooper as shadow again

Theresa May
Yvette Cooper
Hillary Clinton
Angela Merkel

A new order, and welcome. Grey-suited testosterone is sooo... 2015
 
I like Cooper. She strikes me as a gritty, grounded type of person.
She was right to challenge Theresa May on delays to the appointment of a judge to the inquiry into child abuse.
That was a good example of where she refused to pander and be led down the garden path by the government.
They need to appoint someone who can transmit a real desire to put Labour back on the map. someone who comes across as determined and clever. I think Cooper is the nearest they've got to that.
 
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Strangely enough, he'd probably have more difficulty winning the leadership than he would a general. He never had/ has a natural constituency within the college. I'm reasonably confident that Andy Burnham won't win this though

What they need now is someone who can demonstrate economic credibility but is undamaged by the past, but also someone who is more engaging and charismatic than either Maggie May or Gideon. The latter shouldn't be difficult to find, but Liz Kendall is going to be chronically vulnerable to beign perceived as 'lightweight'. Mind you, if Cameron can be goaded into repeating 'Calm down dear' or starts to behave similarly towards her, it'll play out really badly
 
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Who wins this then? Unite will restrict it to three of their own, so if we can potentially rule out Burnham there is money to be made.


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I thought you had to win in blocs (or something) when Ed beat David they announced the result in three separate blocks of Parliamentary Party & MEP's, Members, and Trades Unions. Have they changed it?

So it worked like this

ED - 122 votes = 15.5%, 55.992 votes = 15.2%, 119,405 = 19.9%
David - 140 votes = 17.8%, 66,814 votes = 18.1%, 80,266 = 13.4%

Then you add the percentages up and you get 50.65% and 49.35%

The most over represented group are the parliamentary and MEP bloc. The so-called "affiliate members" (Unions and others) are the most under represented with about 200,000 votes getting the same sway as the 262 'politicos'

I do have a recollection of having broadly worked with Liz Kendall (sort of) in the past. All I recall though was the office joke that she was a very impressive young girl who was a sight better organised, efficient, and up to speed than the local MP and then Minister for State (Pat Hewitt). I remember people asking the question about how the hell she managed to find a PA like that, and Hewitt was the envy of quite a few. Personally, I'll only have spoken to her on the phone a couple of times, so wouldn't have formed an opinion but I do recall that people would remark how this high flyer would always be in tow, and always had a better grasp of what was going on than Hewitt. Mind you, I still hold myself responsible for the smoking ban in pubs having blown smoke all over one of Hewitt's many Coco Chanel outfits to her obvious discomfort in a some Leicester wine bar (Ok I do know where but will spare the detail)
 
BennyB said:
Who wins this then? Unite will restrict it to three of their own, so if we can potentially rule out Burnham there is money to be made.
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When was the last time the country voted for someone with a regional accent? or worse, a northern one. Harold Wilson? Even she who can not be named had to famously work at erradicating hers. Blair might have gone to school at Gordonstoun and represented Sedgefield but he spoke with an acceptable clean southern accent.
 
I think on reflection that Liz Kendall will time her run now. I'm coming out of the Cooper camp

I also note incidentally that 110 Tories (including Ministers) have joined this very helpful group to assist Cameron over Europe. I don't care what they call themselves (the name is Orwellian) you only need to look at some of the personalities in there to realise what they're really about

Labour needs to get on a pro-European ticket because for all the huffing and puffing about leaving the EU, the British public won't do when big business starts threatening them with relocating elsewhere. The vote will be something like 66/33 in the end in favour of staying. This will help plant the idea of Labour being associated with winning whilst the Tories inevitably begin to tear themselves apart.

The point is (and no one has used this phrase yet) but we've swapped a Lib Con pack for a Con UKIP pact, and this will start to become more and more apparent. A lot of these Tories are Tory in name only. Spiritually they're nearer to UKIP and behaving a little bit like Troty enterists, albeit they were Tories who've head their heads turned rather than necessarily having practised Militant Tendancy tactics

So back to the trevails of Labour. I think ultimately this time they'll take the decision based on who they think is most likely to win them election or cause Cameron discomfort, and one suspects that could be Liz Kendall. Can she sharpen up her economic knowledge though? If she can, she'll win. You can't win an election based on the public services alone, you can't win one on foreign policy (unless there's a major incident) and you can't win one once your message becomes one of explanation
 
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