The election 2015
- Thread starter trudij
- Start date
exactly. This stuff is absolute dismal rubbish and would be laughed at by even left wing economists
As an aside this nostalgia for the seventies is bizarre. Absolutely weird. The country was a dirty nasty crumbling violent mess and fading fast. "Sick man of Europe" "British disease" etc etc
BennyB
Senior Jockey
You are right about debt levels EC, but you can't just take two random items and use them to estimate inflation. As Clive says, a house is not an outright cost (and nobody forces you to buy one). Yes petrol had gone up but loads of things have come down by more - that's why inflation is calculated using a basket of goods and services.
Notwithstanding your point about debt, living standards are still massively higher. Look at figure one in this - http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/socia...s-41/social-trends-41---income-and-wealth.pdf
Real disposable income massively higher.
Do you really think the average bloke's living standards haven't improved in the past fifty years? Fifty years ago most people had no central heating and had to go outside for a ****. Now they have two holidays to Majorca and sky telly.
Notwithstanding your point about debt, living standards are still massively higher. Look at figure one in this - http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/socia...s-41/social-trends-41---income-and-wealth.pdf
Real disposable income massively higher.
Do you really think the average bloke's living standards haven't improved in the past fifty years? Fifty years ago most people had no central heating and had to go outside for a ****. Now they have two holidays to Majorca and sky telly.
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Google "UK living standards since 1970" and there's articles on the guardian and independent saying how much better off we are. Even the left wing media agree.
To what extent is house price inflation a sympton of economic growth, or a tool that is used to stoke up temporary property bubbles to fuel borrowing to then deliver growth? The two booms I can remember (late 80's and late 90's early 00's) both saw governments anxious to win elections legislate for conditions that would deliver a short term gain in this field. If you look at our productivity figures though, they've remained pretty uncompetitive for decades, in fact I'm not so sure that house prices and the demand they inject into wage demands and hence unit costs isn't a significant contributing factor when you trace this back up stream
I do think we're reaching a point now though where a generation are going to get trapped in servile renting paying out penicious rents to landlords who contribute very little to our GDP, and find that they're never able to break this cycle due to the amount of their disposable that is haemohraged (never can spell that!). It's almost a side door tax as I think you might argue that if people were paying lower rents they'd only be spending it on foreign produced goods and services and doing even more damage to the UK's balance sheet. In this regard the government uses house prices and rents to control money supply
Somehow or other we've got to find a way of exporting again and getting overseas money to pay down our deficit. But then I'm reminded of a trade mission Cameron went onto Inida where he was beating the drum only for a member of the audience to whisper rather audibly "yeah open for business, but it makes over priced crap that no one wants"
I do think we're reaching a point now though where a generation are going to get trapped in servile renting paying out penicious rents to landlords who contribute very little to our GDP, and find that they're never able to break this cycle due to the amount of their disposable that is haemohraged (never can spell that!). It's almost a side door tax as I think you might argue that if people were paying lower rents they'd only be spending it on foreign produced goods and services and doing even more damage to the UK's balance sheet. In this regard the government uses house prices and rents to control money supply
Somehow or other we've got to find a way of exporting again and getting overseas money to pay down our deficit. But then I'm reminded of a trade mission Cameron went onto Inida where he was beating the drum only for a member of the audience to whisper rather audibly "yeah open for business, but it makes over priced crap that no one wants"
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EC1
On a break
do you buy clothes every week?..do you buy cars every week?..do you go on holiday every week?
you pay your mortgage every week though...thats a payment that greatly reduces your disposable income..and it does it every week. The whole raft of items you talk about are of no consequence..if you haven't a home
there is nothing financially illiterate about paying 50/60%+ of your income on something you need..ie a home..becasue once half+ of your income has gone..the rest of all those things you think are so cheap..is irrelevant..its real life Clive..you only have half or less left..no matter how you dress that up. If you rent...again..thats one hell of a slice of your wage gone..500/600 per month round here for a family home. Someone on minimum wage will take home what?..£900..£950
The only growth this country has seen is due to ordinary man hocking himself up to the eyes with loans to buy those "cheap" items you talk about.
Without credit over the last 40 years...this country would be in a real mess..thats not a booming economy..based on borrowing just to live. Its folk virtually bankrupting themselves to have what people used to be able to afford with one person bringing a wage in.
Folk are so well off now they have numerous jobs instead of one..pay extortionate child care...then borrow owt else they need for holidays electconics, cars etc.
Then there are those utility bills..i haven't checked this yet but do you think annual Gas/Electric bills have the same 12.5 facor ..i'll bet they have risen more than 12.5 times. Thats another item you buy every week or month by direct debit or whichever way you want to pay...its not a choice like holidays..tellys etc.
You make me laugh..you tell me that large mortgages don't affect a lifestyle..but then tell me..oooh but you can buy a car cheaper..ooh and you can go on holiday cheaper..its a good job you can isn't it?..seeing as ordinary Joe probably has to borrow to get both those things..they are really luxuries in this day and age..necessary ones..but expensive all the same when you have little left each month
when most of an economy is based on folk borrowing well above what they can really afford..its a fake economy. In fact you can mirror the mess we are in as a country with that type of money management
It seems to me that its so important to make people think they are better off when the economy is booming..because they are certainly made to pay when it ain't. I didn't see any sharing of wealth in the 80's..i see sharing of debt now though.
Some people buy your nonsense Clive..but it is nonsense to tell people who are spending most of their income just getting by or having to have loans to do so...that they have never had it so good..its bollox spun by folk like you and this government
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BennyB
Senior Jockey
How do you explain the steady rise in household disposable incomes EC? This is after mortgage payments etc remember. Did you look at the link I posted?
EC1
On a break
you there again..purposely misreading to ridicule...i said two of the main things...without petrol many people wouldn't leave teh bloody house..wouldn't get to work..particularly up this neck of the woods. Petrol is a big outgoing for many people...as is the mortgage..utility bills
house prices are driven by prosperity. Simple supply and demand . l they are a consequence of a growing economy. Got it?
this is just super..have i got it..got what?
Clive..the only reason house prices are at such a ridiculous level is that the lending levels were lifted..in the 70's you could only borrow 2.5 multiplied your wage + your partners...then in the "booming" 80's they lifted it...as far as i can see i can now borrow 4.5 multiplied +my partner income
its got bugger all to do with prosperity..if you lifted it to allow someone to borrow 10 times their income...then house prices would double from what they are now
prosperity..give up Clive..its got nothing to with people having wealth..its all about who can borrow most...house prices are tied into what people can borrow.
If we are so prosperous..then why do't Mortgage companies only lend twice someone's income??..and thats it..if that happened..within months house prices would come down..its got bugger all to with prosperity..except in the dream world you seem to be existing in.
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EC1
On a break
true disposable income is when you don't owe money though. Anyone can get loans for holidays and cars..and have money in pocket each week. If they had to save up for thsoe items..cars holidays..they wouldn't have disposable income..it woulld all go towards saving for the loan items/credit card. Its just a fake economy.
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http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...in-wake-of-new-lending-restrictions-1.2152689
I don't agree with all of EC1's argument but I think he has a point where property prices are concerned. The Irish central bank introduced new lending restrictions a few months ago which are having a very noticeable impact on Irish housing prices. It will be interesting to see if the impact is lasting or merely a blip.
I don't agree with all of EC1's argument but I think he has a point where property prices are concerned. The Irish central bank introduced new lending restrictions a few months ago which are having a very noticeable impact on Irish housing prices. It will be interesting to see if the impact is lasting or merely a blip.
EC1
On a break
i'm bored with this now..people either buy the spin of benefitting from growth or they don't..personally..i don't really care either way..there is more to life than being arsed anymore about the stuff
i've put my views forth..and tbh..with Clive if you actually proved he was totally wrong..he'd still make out he wasn't...so its pointless going through it..look at the railway thing..all those links saying opposite of what he said..but he still sticks to his view
i like a banter and a bit of discussion..but it matters not what you say on these threads..you are always wrong..or stupid ... naive..or a complete bellend etc.
bit bored..i'll let someone else have a go
i've put my views forth..and tbh..with Clive if you actually proved he was totally wrong..he'd still make out he wasn't...so its pointless going through it..look at the railway thing..all those links saying opposite of what he said..but he still sticks to his view
i like a banter and a bit of discussion..but it matters not what you say on these threads..you are always wrong..or stupid ... naive..or a complete bellend etc.
bit bored..i'll let someone else have a go
BennyB
Senior Jockey
I can see that I'm not going to win this argument. I'll get back to work.
EC1
On a break
real events don't swing Clive's view..glad to see i'm right on this one though..with a lovley live example..maybe i'm not such a thick c*nt as Clive thinks..then again...
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Frankly ec you are out of your depth and an embarrassment . Don't tell me I'm talking nonsense when you can't even lift yourself to google basic information or even have the slightest understanding of the difference between an appreciating asset and a cost
not taking on board the index benny highlighted is akin to arguing that inflation was 2% in the seventies and 25% now rather than the stated figures. It's based in near enough the same criteria ffs
the gap I prosperity now and then is so massive that it's not even a marginal argument.
it is also worth adding that the index does not include the accumulated assets which again puts further huge spacebetween now and the seventies
not taking on board the index benny highlighted is akin to arguing that inflation was 2% in the seventies and 25% now rather than the stated figures. It's based in near enough the same criteria ffs
the gap I prosperity now and then is so massive that it's not even a marginal argument.
it is also worth adding that the index does not include the accumulated assets which again puts further huge spacebetween now and the seventies
BennyB
Senior Jockey
I'm an economist, wtf would I know about it.
EC1
On a break
its about what people have in their pockets for real people that measures wealth ...economists live in another world imo..but with being the worst debater known to man..i'm obviously a clueless buffoon
if people think they are really well off nowadays like you economist folk say..then they keep that view well hidden...and seem to have a lot of jobs and debts to back up that well offness
its seems that having enough money from one breadearner to live comfortably on....is somehow being worse off than owing 250k+ on a mortgage and having 50+ grands worth of loan debts with both partners working and paying a grand a month in childcare.
Clive you say i'm an idiot for not swallowing what Benny posted..but you didn't swallow those links i posted about the railways
i'll tell you where i am Clive..i'm wrong..we are a very wealthey country and have never had it so good
there ya go..you win the argument..can't say fairer than that really
i'll bow out
if people think they are really well off nowadays like you economist folk say..then they keep that view well hidden...and seem to have a lot of jobs and debts to back up that well offness
its seems that having enough money from one breadearner to live comfortably on....is somehow being worse off than owing 250k+ on a mortgage and having 50+ grands worth of loan debts with both partners working and paying a grand a month in childcare.
Clive you say i'm an idiot for not swallowing what Benny posted..but you didn't swallow those links i posted about the railways
i'll tell you where i am Clive..i'm wrong..we are a very wealthey country and have never had it so good
there ya go..you win the argument..can't say fairer than that really
i'll bow out
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Right. Nail this once and for all
disposable income. Let's look at true discretionary spending across all classes
football. Prices massively higher. And yet? Bigger crowds than the seventies
restaurants. Do we need to start? We're there any on the seventies other than a fcking wimpy bar
holidays. 60m overseas leisure trips last year out of uk. Got it? 70s??.
theatre . Huge boom. No comparison
art exhibitions. Barely existed in seventies. Hundreds of thousands attend now paying top prices
how many hours did it take to buy a hifi in 1979? How many now? I would get a far better one Thani bought at that tie. For LESS than it cost me then
disposable income. Let's look at true discretionary spending across all classes
football. Prices massively higher. And yet? Bigger crowds than the seventies
restaurants. Do we need to start? We're there any on the seventies other than a fcking wimpy bar
holidays. 60m overseas leisure trips last year out of uk. Got it? 70s??.
theatre . Huge boom. No comparison
art exhibitions. Barely existed in seventies. Hundreds of thousands attend now paying top prices
how many hours did it take to buy a hifi in 1979? How many now? I would get a far better one Thani bought at that tie. For LESS than it cost me then
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EC1
On a break
answer - credit cards/loans..people aren't doing those things on minimum wage and just above without getting credit
given the same level of credit menatlity in the 60/70's as we have now..people would have paid for all those things.. same way as they do now..with money that isn't at their fingertips.
now stop drawing me in..i've got wealth to accrue so i can see where you coming from
given the same level of credit menatlity in the 60/70's as we have now..people would have paid for all those things.. same way as they do now..with money that isn't at their fingertips.
now stop drawing me in..i've got wealth to accrue so i can see where you coming from
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Right. Nail this once and for all
disposable income. Let's look at true discretionary spending across all classes
football. Prices massively higher. And yet? Bigger crowds than the seventies
restaurants. Do we need to start? We're there any on the seventies other than a fcking wimpy bar
holidays. 60m overseas leisure trips last year out of uk. Got it? 70s??.
theatre . Huge boom. No comparison
art exhibitions. Barely existed in seventies
how many hours did it take to buy a hifi in 1979? How many now? I would get a far better one Thani bought at that tie. For LESS than it cost me then
disposable income. Let's look at true discretionary spending across all classes
football. Prices massively higher. And yet? Bigger crowds than the seventies
restaurants. Do we need to start? We're there any on the seventies other than a fcking wimpy bar
holidays. 60m overseas leisure trips last year out of uk. Got it? 70s??.
theatre . Huge boom. No comparison
art exhibitions. Barely existed in seventies
how many hours did it take to buy a hifi in 1979? How many now? I would get a far better one Thani bought at that tie. For LESS than it cost me then
EC1
On a break
thats same post..or did you forget to add..ya thick cnut ..at end..
i don't see any point at all though. Anything that is short term is irrelevant in a market which is judged over the period of the average mortgage
you also have an oversupply of houses in Ireland?? We certainly do not here and that is the driver
the idea that the mortgage is a "cost" from someone who has made tens of thousands in an appreciating asset over the years is frankly mental
you many as well describe pension contributions as a cost
this is nuts
EC1
On a break
I'm not following, clivex.
I was pointing out that the Irish central bank seem to believe that if you place a limit on the amount that house purchasers can borrow that it will slow down rising house prices.
I have often thought myself that many people choose to spend too much of their income on housing. They borrow the maximum allowed to them and buy something with it. When they are able to, they trade up and repeat the process. All this is based on a belief that houses are a good investment and that money paid in rent is dead money.
This creates a competitive spiral which results in everybody having to pay more for housing. But the quality of the houses themselves hasn't changed, if anything it's declining because newer units are meaner in size, and often in quality as well. If unchecked, this process ends in tears, as we all saw in Ireland.
The main mechanism governing all this is the amounts that people are able to borrow. By placing reduced limits on loan amounts the Irish central bank hopes to prevent prices from rising too quickly as the economy continues its recovery.
It seems logical to me and, in the short term at least, it seems to be working.
I was pointing out that the Irish central bank seem to believe that if you place a limit on the amount that house purchasers can borrow that it will slow down rising house prices.
I have often thought myself that many people choose to spend too much of their income on housing. They borrow the maximum allowed to them and buy something with it. When they are able to, they trade up and repeat the process. All this is based on a belief that houses are a good investment and that money paid in rent is dead money.
This creates a competitive spiral which results in everybody having to pay more for housing. But the quality of the houses themselves hasn't changed, if anything it's declining because newer units are meaner in size, and often in quality as well. If unchecked, this process ends in tears, as we all saw in Ireland.
The main mechanism governing all this is the amounts that people are able to borrow. By placing reduced limits on loan amounts the Irish central bank hopes to prevent prices from rising too quickly as the economy continues its recovery.
It seems logical to me and, in the short term at least, it seems to be working.
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