The election 2015
- Thread starter trudij
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trudij
Senior Jockey
Southwell for bomb practice?
M
marbler
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I think they're odds-on to get 1 seat, and 7's to get 2 seats or more with William Hill in the banded market.
Like you I fancy them to do well, the above two options are what we're limited too though.
I don't do too badly at Southwell, so they're reprieved. Come to think of it, the Greens would do me a favour if they relented on the Grand National, but banned every other race at Aintree. Wouldn't be averse to the idea of handing the July course over to the Royal Field Artillery either, preferably with half the NIMBYist population of Newmarket acting as simulated infantry. Given the proximity of Porton Down to Goodwood, I think I'd support a move that permitted them a license to experiment with defoliating chemicals too. Now if the Greens were to propose banning football, which truly is a stain on the morality of society (well at least Premiership football) then I'd definitely vote for them
EC1
On a break
all i have heard for the last month or so from the tories is that if people vote labour they let the SNP in..this has been their main tactic..to frighten people from voting labour..i think it could work..hence why they play it every time a tory appears on tv...its actually their main chance of a win .....an overall majority for the greedy tories looks a real goer to me
gigilo
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Should be cleaning up on here with all these predictions,quite happy with my 285 at average of 10/11 had massive bet and even if they weren't to get those numbers by some miracle would still be smiling,see the coalitions into 5/2 from the 4/1 as well be 6/4 tomorrow and camerons odds on..
EC1
On a break
have backed tories for a majority win at 16.5..worth a shot with the labour SNP scare tactic being hammered in hourly
That the Tories have been pushing this anti Scottish line for a couple of weeks though does lead you to think that their private polling suggests they're not enjoying the sorts of returns that they had grounds to expect they would. I wouldn't lose sight of the fact that Farage is campaigning in Thanet today either. He sounds to me as if he's having shore up his own vote. UKIP to get zero might be a bet yet
Cameron has shown a little bit more spark in the last 4-5 days, but he seemed to go missing halfway through this campaign. In football parlance he seemed to be 'carrying an injury". I do wonder if in the fullness of time a few Tories might turn on him if they fall short by 10-15 seats and remember that it was decision to block the Liberals on House fo Lords reform that led to the Liberals blocking him on boundary reform that would have netted the Tories an additional 20 seats
Personally I think the campaign has been marked by two good and bad points
1: Rarely can I think we've seen a campaign where parties have systematically told so many blatant lies. I would add staged managed events to give the impression that they're spontaneous, but in truth that's been going on since Saatchi & Saatchi in the early 80's
2: Yet for all this, we did have a spate of policy announcements that were welcome (and overdue) why I wonder though, does it take an electoral cycle for politicians to think of a good idea. If something is a good idea today, the chances are it was 4 years ago too. The most obvious example of this concerns affordable housing, which is at a crisis level, yet because it doesn't directly affect politicians, civil servants, and party staffers, it never appears until that once in a while that they venture out to take the temperature
Cameron has shown a little bit more spark in the last 4-5 days, but he seemed to go missing halfway through this campaign. In football parlance he seemed to be 'carrying an injury". I do wonder if in the fullness of time a few Tories might turn on him if they fall short by 10-15 seats and remember that it was decision to block the Liberals on House fo Lords reform that led to the Liberals blocking him on boundary reform that would have netted the Tories an additional 20 seats
Personally I think the campaign has been marked by two good and bad points
1: Rarely can I think we've seen a campaign where parties have systematically told so many blatant lies. I would add staged managed events to give the impression that they're spontaneous, but in truth that's been going on since Saatchi & Saatchi in the early 80's
2: Yet for all this, we did have a spate of policy announcements that were welcome (and overdue) why I wonder though, does it take an electoral cycle for politicians to think of a good idea. If something is a good idea today, the chances are it was 4 years ago too. The most obvious example of this concerns affordable housing, which is at a crisis level, yet because it doesn't directly affect politicians, civil servants, and party staffers, it never appears until that once in a while that they venture out to take the temperature
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Ironically reforms from this stable are exactly something that the Tories promised at the last election (can't remenber what the proposed bill was called) and have spectacularly failed to deliver a crumb of. Strange isn't it? They're quite happy to deliver judgement and misery on the rest of us, but when something comes along that affects them, and their own scope for dishonesty and misrepresentation, they never get round to doing it. Much as though it sticks in my craw to admit it, you do have to acknowledge that the defectors to UKIP had the good grace to call a by election on themselves.
I should point out that the ancient Greeks had a practise of 'ostracism' where the most useless 'MP' was voted out every year and had to leave Athens for 20 years (sounds like a bonus to me) now we ought to reintroduce that idea I reckon, I vote for William Hague followed by Keith Vaz
I should point out that the ancient Greeks had a practise of 'ostracism' where the most useless 'MP' was voted out every year and had to leave Athens for 20 years (sounds like a bonus to me) now we ought to reintroduce that idea I reckon, I vote for William Hague followed by Keith Vaz
gigilo
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4/5 and 4/6..
M
marbler
Guest
Youre lovng this arent you gigs. You are like the grim reaper.....even the duke wants a tory majority now haha
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gigilo
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Can't stand the bullingdon club boys,absolutely horrendous people cameron wouldn't **** on you if you were on fire unless you were part of the secret handshake group,even tory voters think he's a complete chump.He won't be round for much longer,hopefully the bumbling johnson will take over at some point and then we can have a real good laugh..
Duke being a one time posting name of mine from Neigh, but I can assure you I don't want a Tory majority. A small Tory majority is the nightmare result, as it would in effect equate to UKIP holding the balance which is more unmanageable than the SNP (I'm trying to think if there's a political party anywhere with the word 'national' in their name that hasn't been dangerous?)
I think Labour could find they've got to make some tough decisions with the SNP though and perhaps move towards a popular front government. Is the SNP that different to the SDLP though where the relationship already exists? Well yes it is, but it's the same principle at another level of coming to an accommodation with like minded.
It perhaps reminds me a little bit of the predicament that the Republicans have faced, associated with the widening of their base and the emergence of the Tea Party and other reactionary lobby groups. As the tetonic plates have moved further and further apart it's become increasingly difficult for the Republicans to find a candidate capable of uniting the right wing in America. If you move to accommodate one extreme, you alienate the other. Labour faces the same problem. If they move to the left to re-engage the Scots, they might get traction again, but in doing so they'll lose the gains they've made in the English Midlands.
It might be therefore that they'll have to work in partnership in the future as part of a broad popular front in an age of multi party politics with the SNP delivering an anti conservative vote in Scotland, and English Labour continuing to adopt territory capable of engaging parts of England
Alternatively they might call the SNP's bluff, as history suggests that they're usually slow to recognise the changing direction of the wind. My own suspicion is that the Scots are more likely to dig their heels in though rather than accept repsonsibility for putting the Tories into Downming Street. The prospect of permanent conservative governments brought about by an impasse in the opposition parties will also make Scottish independence inevitable within a decade, so Labour should be able to justify in the national interests.
Should the Labour / SNP thing be in position by Friday, I expect devo max to come under scrutiny again, but the SNP will be required to drop the referendum and independence demands for the life time of the parliament.
Oh ... we'll have to wait and see, lots of possibilities but I'm getting slightly annoyed by the number of 'experts' the media keep pulling in for comment, and not a single one is prepared to offer an opinion by way of prediction. Bloody cowards. These folk are paid pundits, I wish some of the interviewers would push them a bit and say "too close to call" isn't an acceptable answer
So I think the Tories get a small majority of 10ish (or perhaps Goerge Galloway holds the balance power with Sinn Fein?)
I think Labour could find they've got to make some tough decisions with the SNP though and perhaps move towards a popular front government. Is the SNP that different to the SDLP though where the relationship already exists? Well yes it is, but it's the same principle at another level of coming to an accommodation with like minded.
It perhaps reminds me a little bit of the predicament that the Republicans have faced, associated with the widening of their base and the emergence of the Tea Party and other reactionary lobby groups. As the tetonic plates have moved further and further apart it's become increasingly difficult for the Republicans to find a candidate capable of uniting the right wing in America. If you move to accommodate one extreme, you alienate the other. Labour faces the same problem. If they move to the left to re-engage the Scots, they might get traction again, but in doing so they'll lose the gains they've made in the English Midlands.
It might be therefore that they'll have to work in partnership in the future as part of a broad popular front in an age of multi party politics with the SNP delivering an anti conservative vote in Scotland, and English Labour continuing to adopt territory capable of engaging parts of England
Alternatively they might call the SNP's bluff, as history suggests that they're usually slow to recognise the changing direction of the wind. My own suspicion is that the Scots are more likely to dig their heels in though rather than accept repsonsibility for putting the Tories into Downming Street. The prospect of permanent conservative governments brought about by an impasse in the opposition parties will also make Scottish independence inevitable within a decade, so Labour should be able to justify in the national interests.
Should the Labour / SNP thing be in position by Friday, I expect devo max to come under scrutiny again, but the SNP will be required to drop the referendum and independence demands for the life time of the parliament.
Oh ... we'll have to wait and see, lots of possibilities but I'm getting slightly annoyed by the number of 'experts' the media keep pulling in for comment, and not a single one is prepared to offer an opinion by way of prediction. Bloody cowards. These folk are paid pundits, I wish some of the interviewers would push them a bit and say "too close to call" isn't an acceptable answer
So I think the Tories get a small majority of 10ish (or perhaps Goerge Galloway holds the balance power with Sinn Fein?)
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M
marbler
Guest
Lol gigs. Im quite confused by all this. I LAUGH AT THE CUNTS WHO WANTED DAVID MILLIBAND IN INSTEAD OF ED. David Milliband had more peoples balls elecrocuted and tortured during his time as foreign secretary than the richardsons gang in the 1960s.
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EC1
On a break
one thing Milliband has been quite clear about is there will be NO dealings whatsover with SNP..if he goes back on that in any way there is no way the Labour Party will be a force in future..he has clearly stated this on numerous occasions..if people get shagged with a turn round on this then there is no point in listening to anything he says
i watched the debate thing with Andrew Neil other day..Harriet Harman made certain that i can never vote for a party with her in it...everything i hate about politics is encapsulated within her..wishy washy never answers any question clearly and completely failed to deny that Labour would not deal with SNP..that alone will lose Labour many votes when they see that the main promise may be broken within days..Labour really will sell out worse than the Clegg was deemed to have if he goes down that route
I loved a story the other week on Radio Sheffield..it told me quite clearly what Cameron is banking on. The story was that Conservative voters in Sheffield Hallam were being encouraged to vote for Nicky boy rather than their own candidate to ensure they can keep the Clegg flap on number 10 door..that shows just how scared they are of not having an ally in Clegg..and it shows just how dodgy his seat is..as i said months ago on here..he is no gimme to retain his seat..particularly after he failed to appear on the Radio Sheffield Debate for his own constituency two weeks ago. He was invited months ago to that but just didn't have time to appear it seems...unreal..and yet had time to be pictured with a hedgehog and get interviewed by half wit Joey Essex.
I do hope for his sake he has some faithful followers in Sheffield because an MP that failed to turn up to his own constituency debate 2 weeks before an election wouldn't get my vote.
i watched the debate thing with Andrew Neil other day..Harriet Harman made certain that i can never vote for a party with her in it...everything i hate about politics is encapsulated within her..wishy washy never answers any question clearly and completely failed to deny that Labour would not deal with SNP..that alone will lose Labour many votes when they see that the main promise may be broken within days..Labour really will sell out worse than the Clegg was deemed to have if he goes down that route
I loved a story the other week on Radio Sheffield..it told me quite clearly what Cameron is banking on. The story was that Conservative voters in Sheffield Hallam were being encouraged to vote for Nicky boy rather than their own candidate to ensure they can keep the Clegg flap on number 10 door..that shows just how scared they are of not having an ally in Clegg..and it shows just how dodgy his seat is..as i said months ago on here..he is no gimme to retain his seat..particularly after he failed to appear on the Radio Sheffield Debate for his own constituency two weeks ago. He was invited months ago to that but just didn't have time to appear it seems...unreal..and yet had time to be pictured with a hedgehog and get interviewed by half wit Joey Essex.
I do hope for his sake he has some faithful followers in Sheffield because an MP that failed to turn up to his own constituency debate 2 weeks before an election wouldn't get my vote.
gigilo
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Old news that ec the torys already admitted to voting clegg he's well clear 7% and in other seats. the daily mail have put up 50 seats that UKIP And liberal voters to vote In to keep labour out switching to vice versa:lol: :lol:Cameron will do anything to get that majority absolute scum.
Not quite
Miliband might have made it clear that HE won't deal with the SNP (as leader presumably), but that doesn't preclude the Labour party from doing so? Speak in tongues!
National Exec meets and forces Miliband to resign over his refusal to try and form a government, Harriet takes over (hopefully only temporarily) and leads them into a coalition with the Loch Ness Monster.
Oh what the hell, we're all doomed anyway, we might as well go out laughing before world war III comes along :lol:
EC1
On a break
if the tories plan to scare labour voters works it won't matter anyway Warb..i'm beyond caring who wins any more at my age
at the end of the day..the ordinary person loses no matter what the deficit is..when times are bad the ordinary man pays with cuts..when times are good..the ordinary man sees no benefit like in the 80's..the rich share the prosperity.
In the 80's when all the city boys were rolling in it..ordinary Joe was paying 15% interest rates and losing his home...compare that to today...one time is when the country is economically thriving..one is when we are on our knees..apparently..so when is Joe worse off??..both situations look a bag of bollox for Joe to me.....makes no difference what the econmoy is when you are not actually ever going to benefit from said prosperity
austerity will eventually turn most of the population away from politics...its bound to..all that people will associate politics with is cuts and poor services
at the end of the day..the ordinary person loses no matter what the deficit is..when times are bad the ordinary man pays with cuts..when times are good..the ordinary man sees no benefit like in the 80's..the rich share the prosperity.
In the 80's when all the city boys were rolling in it..ordinary Joe was paying 15% interest rates and losing his home...compare that to today...one time is when the country is economically thriving..one is when we are on our knees..apparently..so when is Joe worse off??..both situations look a bag of bollox for Joe to me.....makes no difference what the econmoy is when you are not actually ever going to benefit from said prosperity
austerity will eventually turn most of the population away from politics...its bound to..all that people will associate politics with is cuts and poor services
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simmo
Senior Jockey
EC1 has actually summed up why so many people look likely to vote SNP this year. Labour, the Tories and the Liberals lied and cheated their way to keeping the UK together and it became all too apparent approximately 6 hours after the referendum result that they were all doing an immediate volte face on the promises they had made over the week previous.
It will take a long time for many Scots to forget this, a large number of whom voted against the referendum.
And as to Warblers suggestion that the Scots might "dig their heels in" rather than accept that they have caused a Tory government - rubbish - the people who voted Tory will have caused a Tory government, not the people who voted for a fairly left-wing party rather than vote for the collection of centrist liars collectively known as the Labour Party.
I shouldn't laugh, but that's precisely what you're doing, proof of the 'dig their heels in' and point the finger elsewhere :lol:
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simmo
Senior Jockey
If you were leveling the accusation at everyone in the UK who didn't vote tactically to elect a Labour MP (so that'll be millions of English people) then you might have a point. It's called democracy.
Of course it's democracy (in a roundabout way - albeit that's a different argument). Restricting it to FPTP though, I don't have a problem with it, and I wouldn't mind a Labour/ SNP coalition myself (I'd quite like it actually)
Look, politicians lie. You can't be shocked by that?. I, (until today ironically) hadn't voted Labour since 1987, but at least I'd accept my spoiling papers and voting for fringe candidates contributes to putting the Tories in rather than seeking to deflect the responsibility for the action elsewhere. This awakening that Labour lets you down and is a pea from the same pod is hardly a revelation to me. I drew that conclusion circa 1990
You can quite rightly say that the SNP better represents Scotland, and in many respects a lot of their policies chime better with me than Labour's, but equally you have to accept the potential consequences of the action. I say 'potential' advisedly. I posted recently that the Scots might end up looking like the shrewdest electorate in western Europe in a few days time, or the biggest chumps whoever put a cross on a ballot sheet. Either outcome is possible
I do believe however that Labour has justification for taking them into Downing Street in the name of the national interest. I think it's probably the beginning of the end though, and Scotland will be standing on its two feet within a decade. Sure the Westminster parties told lies, that's what politicians do. Salmond's figures for the North Sea don't look too clever either, the SNP is quite capable of lying too, albeit I'd probably accuse them of speculatative blagging rather than outright lying. It's a whole series of sub-optimal decisions.
Look, politicians lie. You can't be shocked by that?. I, (until today ironically) hadn't voted Labour since 1987, but at least I'd accept my spoiling papers and voting for fringe candidates contributes to putting the Tories in rather than seeking to deflect the responsibility for the action elsewhere. This awakening that Labour lets you down and is a pea from the same pod is hardly a revelation to me. I drew that conclusion circa 1990
You can quite rightly say that the SNP better represents Scotland, and in many respects a lot of their policies chime better with me than Labour's, but equally you have to accept the potential consequences of the action. I say 'potential' advisedly. I posted recently that the Scots might end up looking like the shrewdest electorate in western Europe in a few days time, or the biggest chumps whoever put a cross on a ballot sheet. Either outcome is possible
I do believe however that Labour has justification for taking them into Downing Street in the name of the national interest. I think it's probably the beginning of the end though, and Scotland will be standing on its two feet within a decade. Sure the Westminster parties told lies, that's what politicians do. Salmond's figures for the North Sea don't look too clever either, the SNP is quite capable of lying too, albeit I'd probably accuse them of speculatative blagging rather than outright lying. It's a whole series of sub-optimal decisions.
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