The Gold Cup 2010

Like DO said earlier on a 36 length beating equates to 28lbs. Before the race the general ratings for the beaten horses were:
170 MDB
162 Nacarat
156 Barbers Shop

Madison didn't run to form and just plugged on for second. Barbers Shop is still relatively unexposed over 3m and it's clear to me that he is the horse this race will be rated through. 156 looks on the low side and I think it's fair to say he ran to a mark somewhere in the early 160s. He travelled really well and it was just that period of the race where he had to be stoked to keep up with the front two that meant he ran out of puff over from a little over one out. He's probably capable of running to around 165/66 when conditions suit (the same sort of mark as Notre Pere/Albertas Run) but like I said ran around three or four pounds below that on Boxing Day.
 
Galileo said:
Presume Townend will get the ride on Cooldine with Ruby presumably going to Newbury.
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Presents a very interesting dilemma indeed. I always tend to follow the maxim that the market speaks far louder than anything connections of a horse have to say.

Given the market strength, I think there is an argument to make that 3's about a wound-up Cooldine is fair value against this field.
 
Just back from the track - credit to the What A Friend team. First impression would be that they should have held onto Joncol for longer. I like Cawley but wouldn't be shocked to see a more experienced pilot on him the next day.

That said, pretty grim overall for the Irish chasers with WAF and Money Trix 1 and 2 - Sizing Europe, Mikael D'Hageneut etc need to grow up quickly.

Cooldine ran too bad to be true. In a way, the WAF win pays a compliment to the Sun Alliance form although it's likely the Nicholls horse has improved. But Ruby chose Cooldine yesterday for a reason and when you throw in the market support then it's hard to countenance how he ran really. Will take some training job to turn him around in time for Cheltenham. Odds against him running at this stage.
 
Cooldine just looked to stop. Hope he comes out of it well. A worry that a thing Denman toyed with when giving weight could come here and take the pot easily enough
 
That's encouraging to hear about Cooldine, in a weird sort of way. The abject nature of his run would be depressing otherwise.

Watched the race again and think Joncol was given a strange ride, taking on Notre Pere and then kicking off the home bend - surely could have waited with him a bit longer. Although not as long as Russell waited on Money Trix....
 
All people seem to be doing over the xmas is slating the rides jockeys are giving. I thought Russell was excellent on Money Trix.
 
I agree it can be an annoying habit Gearoid, and I don't normally go down the blame the jockey route. Looking through my posts should..hopefully..prove that. Perhaps my Money Trix view has been coloured by a mate screaming down the phone because Russell waited too long - in his view - I wasn't quite watching the horse throughout the race. Similar to the manner in which he waited a bit long on Oscar Dan Dan yesterday. There's a fine line I guess. I thought Davy rode the perfect race on Solwhit by making use of his proven stamina.
 
Bobbyjo - I was not trying to single you out, just a general observation over the last few weeks. Im sure if you pull out my posts Ive had a go here and there at a jockey or two but Im off the opinion Davy Russell is far better than the credit he is given.
 
I might just add one of the best rides I saw in a graded race this season was Russell on Sowlhit in Punchestown and one of the worst was the Fighting Fifth, so it is a fine line indeed.
 
First post in a week. Of the big two, I have always been a Kauto fan, but can take no credit for that as I wrote him off just before his third King George.

Reading the discussion about who Ruby would ride was bizarre. He has always been a Kauto man. As (I think) is Nicholls.

Saturday's performance was the best I have seen since Dessie. But I think the race was run to suit Kauto, and I don't feel it increases his chance in March. In a way, I think it may compromise it. Surprised how nobody has mentioned how frequently horses regress after producing a monster performance on the book. Look at Hawk Wing, Master Minded, etc.

I think Kauto will beat Denman in March, but I won't bet. You can get 5/2 on neither of them winning, which looks the bet at this stage.
 
The Nicholls stable, I believe backed Denman at 7-1 etc for the Gold Cup on the basis he would be back to form and would avoid Kauto whos main aim was a very historic fourth King George. I have had no bet and have no strong opinion but I would want the 5-2 Denman. No other horse has a chance in hell.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Surprised how nobody has mentioned how frequently horses regress after producing a monster performance on the book. Look at Hawk Wing, Master Minded, etc.
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I think that like Sea the Stars in the summer the normal rules don't apply. The only reason i'm betting against him in the Gold Cup is because Denman is a freak as well.
 
I've 'done' the King George and am getting mixed conclusions.

Once again - as with Hawk Wing and other very impressive Grade/Group 1 winners - what appeared a very fast run race isn't being borne out by comparative times, and novice handicap chase winner on the same card Polyfast is in danger of becoming the next Lindop.

Long Run won impressively a visually fast run Feltham in spite of an inept-looking performance from his jockey. His time rating works out 41lbs slower than Kauto Star's. Long Run went into the race off an OR of 154, which would bring Kauto Star out at 195, if we went down that road of comparison.

However, Long Run was only 13lbs faster than the 114-rated Polyfast in the last, and there's nothing in the form lines to suggest that Polyfast is anything near a 141 animal. If he is, look no further for the winner of the Jewson.

I've gone with my 165 for Barber Shop as my line to Kauto Star. It puts the champ on 193+ and, as I said before, I reckon you could probably add another minimum of 3lbs to account for slowing down to pop - rather than attack and fly - the last, plus whatever he had in reserve, which was unlikely to have been a great deal.

In the circumstances, I'd say Kauto Star's new OR of 195 is pretty much on the money but, just as Hawk Wing's Lockinge time rating (124) was close to average for a Group 1, so Kauto Star's was little better than average for a King George winner.
 
Cooldine is to be given time to recover from the slight problem that saw him run under par in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown.
Last season's RSA Chase winner was found to be coughing after being pulled up in Tuesday's big race, won by What A Friend.
However, trainer Willie Mullins believes it is just a "hiccup" and should not prevent him lining up in the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.
"He gave a cough. I think he has a little sore throat, so we will give him time to get over that," said the County Carlow handler.
"Hopefully he will be OK for Cheltenham. It's only a hiccup, I think."
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've 'done' the King George and am getting mixed conclusions.

Once again - as with Hawk Wing and other very impressive Grade/Group 1 winners - what appeared a very fast run race isn't being borne out by comparative times, and novice handicap chase winner on the same card Polyfast is in danger of becoming the next Lindop.

Long Run won impressively a visually fast run Feltham in spite of an inept-looking performance from his jockey. His time rating works out 41lbs slower than Kauto Star's. Long Run went into the race off an OR of 154, which would bring Kauto Star out at 195, if we went down that road of comparison.

However, Long Run was only 13lbs faster than the 114-rated Polyfast in the last, and there's nothing in the form lines to suggest that Polyfast is anything near a 141 animal. If he is, look no further for the winner of the Jewson.

I've gone with my 165 for Barber Shop as my line to Kauto Star. It puts the champ on 193+ and, as I said before, I reckon you could probably add another minimum of 3lbs to account for slowing down to pop - rather than attack and fly - the last, plus whatever he had in reserve, which was unlikely to have been a great deal.

In the circumstances, I'd say Kauto Star's new OR of 195 is pretty much on the money but, just as Hawk Wing's Lockinge time rating (124) was close to average for a Group 1, so Kauto Star's was little better than average for a King George winner.
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I've said many times that comparing NH times is best kept to same distance races..i really think it is the most accurate...remember MDB when he ran a decent time when beating Denman the first time?...which appeared pulled down by another different distance race...but when compared to the same distance handicap it was a good performance on the clock..which was then confirmed at aintree

standard times over the sticks are not accurate enough imo...same distance comparisons have always stood me in good stead though
 
They've done me no harm, I have to say, which is why I'm happy to rely on them if they appear to add up. Sometimes they don't, in which case I'm prepared to dismiss them, and I've always insisted form lines are far more reliable anyway. It's the form line that puts Kauto Star on 193+, not the time.
 
Long Runs direct time backs that form figure up though DO...and I am happy to think he has run to that mark

visually it was a horse going at a a different rate of knots under very little pressure..it was visually..on form..and on the clock ....a mesmerising performance which I haven't seen any other horse do over the jumps..he is the closest thing we have seen to you know who
 
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