The Gold Cup 2010

Scratch that.

Sea The Stars would wet himself approach the first, pull up before jumping it, and Kauto Star would win unchallenged.

Ah....that's better. :D
 
Galileo said:
This is the same old chestnut we face every year when the question is put that the novices from the previous years have huge amounts to find with the current Champions. Thats a given - it is always the case.
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Not always. For years we had Gold Cup winners hitting anything between 164 and 175. Best Mate didn't beat handicappers by far and was only a superstar because of a lack of credible opposition. Even Dessie probably only hit the low 160s in his win but he was never truly effective at the track. Denman and Kauto Star are.

If 168-174 was the kind of figure we're looking at, I could envisage a top novice or smart handicapper finding enough improvement to put them in with a chance but once you get into the 180s, you're looking at a vastly more remote chance of something improving to that level. It isn't impossible but it is highly improbable.
 
Grasshopper said:
Scratch that.

Sea The Stars would wet himself approach the first, pull up before jumping it, and Kauto Star would win unchallenged.

Ah....that's better. :D
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STS would show KS his package, explain what he's gonna be up to for the next twenty years and Kauto, depressed and somehow feeling that something is missing would fall out of love with the game and be retired.
 
So, apparently Sean Magee has 1000/1 on Carruthers to win the Gold Cup before 2012 (according to C&H). I wonder if he'll be pushing Lord Oaksey to run him just so he can do some laying off? I also wonder if he has a fancy price on him for the National - he looks a likely type for 2011 imo.
 
Tidal Bay has also had a back operation which is supposed to adjust his head carriage and could improve his jumping he never seemed to use his back end when he is in a bit tight
 
Are you sure you don't mean the wind operation he's had? No back operation has been reported so far and I can't see connections making a massive secret of it.
 
Euronymous said:
STS would show KS his package, explain what he's gonna be up to for the next twenty years and Kauto, depressed and somehow feeling that something is missing would fall out of love with the game and be retired.
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Desperately unfair, but probably true!
 
Considering Denman was a shadow of himself for much of last season he ran a huge race in the Gold Cup. He looks outstanding value to me to reclaim his crown. Reportedly retains old sparkle and must surely take the beating.
 
Not for me Steve - I've yet to be convinced that he's back to himself and would need to see it on the track, a runner-up spot in the Gold Cup as good as it is still shows him as being a good few pounds behind Kauto Star and even a narrow beating of Madison Du Berlais (if you think he'd have beaten him at Aintree) doesn't do it for me.

Would rather wait for him to win a handicap chase off topweight or one of the Irish 3m Chases and take the 3/1 or 4/1 for the Gold Cup after that.
 
Irish Stamp said:
a runner-up spot in the Gold Cup as good as it is still shows him as being a good few pounds behind Kauto Star
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This is true, but he had a far from ideal preparation for the race. I think the question that has to be asked is what price would he be if he hadn't run at Aintree? 9/2, 5/1 maybe - and that means he is a bit of value at the moment because that race, on a totally unsuitable track, is irrelevent to his prospects for March. As ever the bookies put too much weight into an animals last run when factoring his price. It's why Fame and Glory is value if you can get odds-against for saturday.
 
I think the opposite. too often excuses are made for below par "last runs". What you see is very often what you get

Kauto simply improved massively on his 2008 run. He skipped rather than laboured his way round the track. The transformation was pretty startling really. I would contend that Denman at his 2008 best may well not have beaten 2009 Kauto and it is (for me) quite a leap of faith that Denman will get back to that standard. Having said that, hes in the perfect hands to do so....
 
And i am not at all sure that F&G was "below par" last time. Hes simply not that good. His best form was at Leopardstown but even then STS skipped past him. Was simply exposed last week
 
To beat Kauto in the Gold Cup, Denman is going to have to be able to do what he did in 2008 - put him to the sword, take him out of his comfort zone and force him into the mistakes he tends to make when having to go a little faster than he is comfortable jumping at. Like IS, I'd want to see some sign that Denman is capable of that kind of mammoth performance again, and that it wasn't his heart that was broken that day, rather than Kauto's.
 
clivex said:
I think the opposite. too often excuses are made for below par "last runs". What you see is very often what you get
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I'm not talking about fast finishing handicappers here and this isn't an opinion, it's a fact - bookies are well renowned for doing this. What price would New Approach have been for the Derby is he hadn't run in the Irish Guineas? I certainly wouldn't have got 7/1.
 
Yes. One example and its "a fact". Not "an opinion"

If the bookies are "well renowned" (sic) for doing this, why aren't' they routinely taken to the cleaners on this very basic system by pros day in day out?
 
Ultimately, it is a very unusually talented chaser that keeps their form for a succession of seasons in the very top races. Not that many spring to mind....

Im not one for hanging onto to past trends without logic at all, but so many horses have been near enough bottomed by the GC, without the complications of illness. It was probably a helluva a feat to get him back to the form he showed last year and took a genuinely fine trainer to do so (other trainers would have had the daft moinker of "genius" stuck to them for such a feat)

But its another big step now. I love Denman but really this would require a comeback of monumental proportions complicated by being up against the greatest chaser of the last 20-30 years

its more than 6/1 IMO
 
clivex said:
Yes. One example and its "a fact". Not "an opinion"

If the bookies are "well renowned" (sic) for doing this, why aren't' they routinely taken to the cleaners on this very basic system by pros day in day out?
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Day in and day out? We're talking high profile races here, races where there is a lot of hype and newsprint. It stands to reason that when assessing a horse one should look at it's overall profile and not put too much emphasis on it's last run.
 
If there is a very good reason for a bad last run (trip/going/draw) which bears scrutiny and isnt simply hype, then we can all live with that. But without a reason, I will take it as I see it...

I think that more than a few unexplained bad runs have been followed by...another bad run. Often enough, its a case of form simply maturing
 
Gareth Flynn said:
To beat Kauto in the Gold Cup, Denman is going to have to be able to do what he did in 2008 - put him to the sword, take him out of his comfort zone and force him into the mistakes he tends to make when having to go a little faster than he is comfortable jumping at. Like IS, I'd want to see some sign that Denman is capable of that kind of mammoth performance again, and that it wasn't his heart that was broken that day, rather than Kauto's.
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When you see this sort of evidence he'll be unbackable. If he could finish runner-up last season after the setbacks he experienced I've no concerns about him this term, particularly as his trainer has been at pains to insist that he is past his troubles. Over course and distance he can do things that I've rarely (if ever) seen.
 
SteveM said:
When you see this sort of evidence he'll be unbackable. If he could finish runner-up last season after the setbacks he experienced I've no concerns about him this term, particularly as his trainer has been at pains to insist that he is past his troubles. Over course and distance he can do things that I've rarely (if ever) seen.
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If Denman wins the Hennessy of top weight, he will still be a backable price with Kauto Star around.
 
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