The Gold Cup 2010

Euronymous said:
Day in and day out? We're talking high profile races here, races where there is a lot of hype and newsprint. It stands to reason that when assessing a horse one should look at it's overall profile and not put too much emphasis on it's last run.
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I'm very open to the idea of forgiving a good horse a bad run or two. They're only human, after all.:)
 
Until Denman goes up and down an undulating track at the speed and in the style that he did in his Gold Cup he should be a backable price and IMO until he's done that he's a highly risky proposition.
 
I would be surprised to see Denman irun and place in the Gold Cup.

I take the point about horses needing to get very high to catch Kauto (and Denman). However KS has been on the go for a long time. He is clearly the most likely winner at this stage, but I think he is likely to regress from here in, and that someone will come out of the pack.

I just haven't got a rashers who that might be.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
To beat Kauto in the Gold Cup, Denman is going to have to be able to do what he did in 2008 - put him to the sword, take him out of his comfort zone and force him into the mistakes he tends to make when having to go a little faster than he is comfortable jumping at.
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I am genuinely surprised that people still think that Kauto Star was beaten in the 2008 Gold Cup by being "taken out of his comfort zone" and "forced to go a little faster than he is comfortable jumping at".

He is a Tingle Creek winner, he won his previous race over 20f and most pertinently of all - he was beaten after a circuit!

Even if he wasn't injured/under-prepped - which plenty were happy to speculate that he was - it was an off day for sure.
 
betsmate said:
I am genuinely surprised that people still think that Kauto Star was beaten in the 2008 Gold Cup by being "taken out of his comfort zone" and "forced to go a little faster than he is comfortable jumping at".

He is a Tingle Creek winner, he won his previous race over 20f and most pertinently of all - he was beaten after a circuit!
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The Tingle Creek wasn't run at Cheltenham though. At speed on that sort of track he is less than perfect. They went a comfortable pace for him last March.
 
The things written about Kauto Star that day, that he wasn't right and didn't travel a lick, are the sort of excuses normally given to horses's that finish tailed off. He finished second putting in a top class effort.
He's a superstar and the likeliest winner, but if Denman get's to the race with a trouble free prep, looking as imperious as he did a couple of years ago, i'd be very worried if I was a KS backer.
 
Euronymous said:
The things written about Kauto Star that day, that he wasn't right and didn't travel a lick, are the sort of excuses normally given to horses's that finish tailed off. He finished second putting in a top class effort.
He's a superstar and the likeliest winner, but if Denman get's to the race with a trouble free prep, looking as imperious as he did a couple of years ago, i'd be very worried if I was a KS backer.
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That's the point - it is only because he is a superstar that he was able to run such a race when well below form , utter class and guts . Anyone who thinks he is only a head better than NC needs help:lol:
 
Gareth Flynn said:
To beat Kauto in the Gold Cup, Denman is going to have to be able to do what he did in 2008 - put him to the sword, take him out of his comfort zone and force him into the mistakes he tends to make when having to go a little faster than he is comfortable jumping at. Like IS, I'd want to see some sign that Denman is capable of that kind of mammoth performance again, and that it wasn't his heart that was broken that day, rather than Kauto's.
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But this was Ruby's point - KS was used to going faster than that in Tingle Creeks and he was just never going that day.
 
Ardross said:
That's the point - it is only because he is a superstar that he was able to run such a race when well below form , utter class and guts . Anyone who thinks he is only a head better than NC needs help:lol:
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Exactly. Only the greatest horses could have an off day and still come second in a Gold Cup of that quality. Only horses so great that they can go entire seasons unbeaten, so great that they can win Tingle Creeks and Gold Cups in the same season, so great they can regain Gold Cups. Few spring to mind.
 
When you look back it, it really is remarkable how so many thought Denman's victory killed Kauto Star off for good - in truth he had to scrap so low into his resources that it really hurt Denman badly.

Whatever the reason for KS's loss to Denman, it certainly was not a pace issue or the track...perhaps the ground. Watching him kick clear off the turn last season was spinetingly good.
 
Galileo said:
When you look back it, it really is remarkable how so many thought Denman's victory killed Kauto Star off for good - in truth he had to scrap so low into his resources that it really hurt Denman badly.

Whatever the reason for KS's loss to Denman, it certainly was not a pace issue or the track...perhaps the ground. Watching him kick clear off the turn last season was spinetingly good.
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Possibly - it was horrible ground that day.
 
betsmate said:
I am genuinely surprised that people still think that Kauto Star was beaten in the 2008 Gold Cup by being "taken out of his comfort zone" and "forced to go a little faster than he is comfortable jumping at".

He is a Tingle Creek winner, he won his previous race over 20f and most pertinently of all - he was beaten after a circuit!

Even if he wasn't injured/under-prepped - which plenty were happy to speculate that he was - it was an off day for sure.
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The faster the pace of the race, the more likely Kauto is to make a mistake. This may be true of many jumpers, but it is particularly pronounced with him (I can dig out the analysis I posted here months ago if you really want me to bore you).

In the '08 Gold Cup, it became something of a feedback loop for him. He had to go fast, which caused him to make a mistake, which threw him out of any rhythm, which made him make another mistake, whilst still having to keep up a fierce pace, which forced him into another mistake, and so on.

It is truly remarkable that (based on the comments in running) he made 7 jumping mistakes in a Gold Cup - his career-worst round of jumping - and still came second.
 
It simply can't be the pace of the Gold Cup that did for Kauto that day for 2 reasons:

1. The pace would have been far quicker in the Tingle Creeks he won where he jumped really, really well.
2. He looked lacklustre and made errors in the first circuit, when the pace was no quicker than normal.

I agree with what Betsmate has posted above.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
It is truly remarkable that (based on the comments in running) he made 7 jumping mistakes in a Gold Cup - his career-worst round of jumping - and still came second.
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It was something along those lines that put me on to See More Business at 33/1 when he won his Gold Cup. He'd been beaten not far by good horses in the charlie Hall despite clouting nearly every fence on the way round. If memory serves, he ran to 174 that day and I immediately marked him down as a potential 180+ horse.

I agree with Gareth's comments about the above run from Kauto Star. The solution would be not to force him to chase a fast pace. He wouldn't have to. Denman was slowing up significantly in the last half mile that day.
 
Galileo said:
Whatever the reason for KS's loss to Denman...QUOTE]

The reason Kauto Star lost to Denman was that Denman was close to unbeatable given course and distance that day. He took Kauto out of his comfort zone and exposed his jumping, which is sketchy under pressure. The fact that Denman could finish runner up last time after being under a cloud for the whole season should mean he will be back to his old self this season.
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Euronymous said:
The things written about Kauto Star that day, that he wasn't right and didn't travel a lick, are the sort of excuses normally given to horses's that finish tailed off. He finished second putting in a top class effort.
He's a superstar and the likeliest winner, but if Denman get's to the race with a trouble free prep, looking as imperious as he did a couple of years ago, i'd be very worried if I was a KS backer.
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This seems right to me. Denman's Gold Cup performance that day was probably the best we've seen since Arkle, and I don't say that lightly. Kauto lost because he was matched against the wrath of God.
 
As has been said, Kauto Star was making mistakes from the third or fourth fence, when the pace was no better than steady. His jumping actually improved marginally over the last half-dozen fences when the tempo increased.

Denman might well have won the race anyway even if KS had been at the top of his form - but I'm satisfied that Kauto Star just didn't fire on the day, for whatever reason, and that 'comfort zone' theories are misplaced.
 
Of course Kauto "fired". He finished runner up in one of the best Gold Cup's we've seen. Kauto is not a natural round Cheltenham but nevertheless ran one his finest races in defeat.
 
SteveM said:
Of course Kauto "fired". He finished runner up in one of the best Gold Cup's we've seen. Kauto is not a natural round Cheltenham but nevertheless ran one his finest races in defeat.
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hahahahaha.....you cannot be serious... :confused::confused:
 
SteveM said:
Of course Kauto "fired". He finished runner up in one of the best Gold Cup's we've seen. Kauto is not a natural round Cheltenham but nevertheless ran one his finest races in defeat.
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And what of this season's Gold Cup, SteveM?

Are you suggesting that Kauto run to a lower mark winning this year, than he had in defeat last year?

Do you have this year's Gold Cup rated lower than Denman's the year before? If so, on what basis? This is a serious question, as I have Kauto running to his highest ever Cheltenham figure by quite some way.

The proximity of Neptune Collonges - an admirable, but strictly mid-to-high 160's animal - should tell you the level that Kauto Star, and therefore Denman, ran to in the 2008 Gold Cup.

Impressive as Denman's performance was, it was not even the best Gold Cup run in the last two years. :cool:
 
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Deadly serious... Kauto is a better horse on other tracks. Denman is a better horse at Cheltenham.

I've not got the ratings to hand, but didn't Kauto run to a higher rating when he was beaten by Denman than he did when he won the time before?
 
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Grasshopper said:
And what of this season's Gold Cup, SteveM?

Are you suggesting that Kauto run to a lower mark winning this year, than he had in defeat last year?

Do you have this year's Gold Cup rated lower than Denman's the year before? If so, on what basis? This is a serious question, as I have Kauto running to his highest ever Cheltenham figure by quite some way.

The proximity of Neptune Collonges - an admirable, but strictly mid-to-high 160's animal - should tell you the level that Kauto Star, and therefore Denman, ran to in the 2008 Gold Cup.

Impressive as Denman's performance was, it was not even the best Gold Cup run in the last two years. :cool:
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Not at all. This year's Gold Cup was also a great race. But if either horse has an excuse for finishing runner-up it is surely Denman rather than Kauto, who ran one of his finest races in defeat.
 
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