The Gold Cup 2010

SteveM said:
Deadly serious... Kauto is a better horse on other tracks. Denman is a better horse at Cheltenham.

I've not got the ratings to hand, but didn't Kauto run to a higher rating when he was beateb by Denman than he did when he won the time before?
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I had Kauto running to within 1lb of his first victory, when second to Denman.

However, he didn't have to run up to anywhere near his best to win his first Gold Cup, as the race was a jog, and he won it in a matter of strides turning in.

Like you, I was of the opinion that Kauto Star was less well suited by Cheltenham than Denman.....until this year's Gold Cup. The form is absolutely rock-solid, and -for my money - Kauto Star takes a higher rating out of the race, than Denman did the year before.

Given this, I can only assume that Kauto Star didn't "fire" the previous year, when beaten by Denman. It's only my opinion, and I try not to get too strident about it.
 
I just can't have it that Kauto didn't fire when he ran to a better rating than when he won the first time. Denman simply jumped Kauto ragged in his Gold Cup... Still your entitled to your opinion.

With Kauto at about 6/4 and Denman on 6/1 this year I know which one I'm on.
 
I've said elsewhere that, at current prices, I would likely side with Denman.

But equally, I can't have it that Kauto Star ran to a significantly better rating against Denman, than he did when winning it the year before.

Neptune Collonges holds the form down (relatively speaking), in my opinion.........and the way the 2007 race was run, meant that it was never going to be an event which would produce super-high ratings anyway.
 
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Fair enough (although I think the ratings bear out what I have said)... I think it's ludicrous to suggest that Kauto was in some way below par when he lost to Denman. Kauto was simply dragged out of his comfort zone and his jumping exposed when put under pressure (something he's not used to) and still ran to one of his best ratings. Nothing since Arkle would have lived with Denman that day.
 
Grasshopper said:
I had Kauto running to within 1lb of his first victory, when second to Denman.

However, he didn't have to run up to anywhere near his best to win his first Gold Cup, as the race was a jog, and he won it in a matter of strides turning in.

Like you, I was of the opinion that Kauto Star was less well suited by Cheltenham than Denman.....until this year's Gold Cup. The form is absolutely rock-solid, and -for my money - Kauto Star takes a higher rating out of the race, than Denman did the year before.

Given this, I can only assume that Kauto Star didn't "fire" the previous year, when beaten by Denman. It's only my opinion, and I try not to get too strident about it.
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You've identified (correctly, IMO) the slow pace of his first Gold Cup as being the primary reason that he was able to win without being extended. A year later, you have him running to more or less the same level, but the completely different pace profile of the race had nothing to do with the markedly different performance and result?
 
Again, how can it, if he can win 2 Tingle Creeks, and his jumping struggles started after 3 or 4 fences, and had little, if not nothing to do with Denman taking him out of his comfort zone?
 
Kauto Star also just about took out one of the prestbury fences the first time he ran there; when he was favourite for the champion chase.

I don't know what this whole argument is about. I thought it was generally accepted that the ground in 08 was the primary reason Denman won? Certainly seems the most plausible explanation, one which all known form backs up. If it came up soft again I would smash into Denman as he seems to get out of the ground better. Good ground and Denman has no hope as he just is not quick enough. The 08 gold cup was also not one of Ruby's finest hours, for the one and only time in his life I think Thomas outrode Ruby that day.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
You've identified (correctly, IMO) the slow pace of his first Gold Cup as being the primary reason that he was able to win without being extended. A year later, you have him running to more or less the same level, but the completely different pace profile of the race had nothing to do with the markedly different performance and result?
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"Primary reason", Gareth?

I think the fact that he was by far the best horse in the race, was more likely to be the "primary reason", no? As far as my ratings are concerned, the more significant factor was that the slower-pace in 2007 was not conducive to the production of a high-rating.

I ask again, if Denman's form in the 2008 Gold Cup was worthy of a rating commensurate with "one of the best Gold Cup's of recent years", how does one explain away the proximity of Neptune Collonges at the end?

Does any seriously think that Neptune Collonges is the equal of Kauto Star around Cheltenham? If so, they might want to take a look at the 2009 Gold Cup.

Was Kauto Star "taken out of his comfort zone" against Denman in 2008? Perhaps, maybe, it cannot be discounted.................but there is ample evidence in the form book to support Kauto Star being below form in 2008......something backed up by his victory in March, which would be nigh-on a stone better performance on form..................and on balance, it's my opinion that he simply ran below his best, rather than having been taken out of his comfort zone.
 
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NC is in his element round Cheltenham. It brings the best out of him. Horses like West Tip were the same. They could give anything a run for their money over course and distance, without being good enough to win.
 
I would have said the opposite about Neptune Collonges. He is a better horse away from Cheltenham. A quick glance through his form there shows that he has been well beaten every time, except the 2008 Gold Cup.
 
Tidal Bay

According to RP he had a back operation after aintree


Aintree flop Tidal Bay treated for back problem
By David Carr4.14PM 20 APR 2009 OWNER Graham Wylie hopes that treatment for a back problem has done the trick for Tidal Bay, who has been under a cloud since disappointing at Aintree this month.


RELATED LINKS
» Tidal Bay profile
» On Raglan Road profile

His high-class performer, winner of the Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham in 2008, has been undergoing tests at Howard Johnson's stable since he finished a moderate fifth behind Voy Por Ustedes in the Melling Chase.

But Wylie said on Monday: "We've had him checked out and we think he has had a bit of a bad back so we've had that looked into.

"There seems to have been something wrong with his back, I am not sure what it was, Howard just told me the other day, but it is fixed now so he is fine.

"Hopefully that was it and we will see how he goes next season. Everyone wants to see good horses back, so if that has been the reason why he carried his head high and why he stopped halfway through the race then that would be great. If it is something else then we will have to find out next season."

Stable-companion On Raglan Road isset for a long layoff after his fall in the Sefton Novices' Hurdle at Aintree.

"He is out for at least 12 months," Wylie said. "He has got a problem with his tendons.

"The plaster cast is still on and he has obviously damaged it quite badly. He will have a lot of care and attention.

"He will miss the whole of next season, whether he comes back for the season after that we are not sure, we will have to see, but Howardis a past master at getting horses ready once they have had a bad injury."
 
Galileo said:
Did you back Denman to beat Kauto Star in this year's Gold Cup Steve?
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yes... although I was a lot more confident (as you may remember) the time before, when I backed him 'til it hurt.

This year I backed him because I thought his price was big, but in view of his form/condition it was much more tentative than in 2008. For next year I am again much more confident... This time he is a big price as well as having an outstanding chance.
 
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Euro: when are you coming to Lingfield?? ;) We do have several NH engagements, provided the back straight ain't waterlogged, there isn't a frost in the ground, or an overlying fog that won't clear...
 
Galileo said:
Confirmed that Kauto misses Down Royal and goes to Haydock.
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I can't help but feel that this is a mad decision. Haydock now resembles a greyhound track; those bends are so tight it's ridiculous, they make Musselburgh look galloping. I can't really see it suiting him and personally I'd be very reluctant to run any staying or galloping horse there in all fairness.
 
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