The Gold Cup 2010

Looked another case of a horse failing to travel comfortably for McCoy. He would have won easily but not as willing as he can be.
 
Be interesting to hear what Mccoy says about the horse. He definitely didn't get away when Mccoy asked him to go but whether that is a case of the horse being undercooked or something else we will have to wait and see. If you remember last year something similar happened storming run at cheltenham followed by an almost carbon copy of today at aintree, maybe the horse is getting ideas of his own.
 
I cannot believe that people are blaming Ap the horse was coming back to the field he blew up before the mistake . Either he blew up or post heart problem he has a tendency to an off day like aintree last year
 
McCoy just interviewed there - sounded a bit disappointed with Denman even before the mistakes. I cannot have lack of fitness as an excuse today.
 
Denman has become a bit canny as he's got older. Look at how Ruby stoked him to get him interested in the Hennessy. If he was ever going to make a bad mistake it was in a quiet, glorified gallop like today's "contest"

At Cheltenham with the noise of the place and adrenelin of the Gold Cup I reckon he'll be more focused.

As a Denman fan am I more or less confident? Less obviously, but i'm a glass half full punter and ultimately he's a nicer price now than he was this morning.

I'd also say Kauto Star is begging to be taken on at odd-on now and i'll be adding Cooldine to my ante-post portfolio soon
 
Euro don't back Denman again until you see the race today - definitely was been closed on before his first mistake then he looked to completely loose it coming to the next.

Euronymous said:
Denman has become a bit canny as he's got older. Look at how Ruby stoked him to get him interested in the Hennessy. If he was ever going to make a bad mistake it was in a quiet, glorified gallop like today's "contest"

At Cheltenham with the noise of the place and adrenelin of the Gold Cup I reckon he'll be more focused.

As a Denman fan am I more or less confident? Less obviously, but i'm a glass half full punter and ultimately he's a nicer price now than he was this morning.

I'd also say Kauto Star is begging to be taken on at odd-on now and i'll be adding Cooldine to my ante-post portfolio soon
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It looked to me that after the usual excellent jump at the cross fence McCoy was maybe too relaxed on him, hunting him round and he lost concentration. He got too close to the next fence and then over-compensated by setting off too far from the next.

I think McCoy was so conscious of not being overly aggressive on him that maybe his nerves were transmitted to the horse.

My confidence is knocked slightly but once he's jumped a few in the Gold Cup he should be back on track.
 
Not sure what to make of that performance really. Hopefully he hasn't done himself any lasting damage and will be ok to line up on GC day. Difficult to say whether he'd have made the same mistakes if Ruby'd been riding...think the horse just lost concentration and then when he almost shipped AP the first time he just lost his confidence.
 
DO - you've got to be joking about AIR FORCE ONE! Dreadful throughout - has to overcome its mad action, yes, but really scrabbled over most jumps, stumbled about and while he's managed a third, I wouldn't be in the least attracted to him for later.

Re DENMAN - like Rory, I thought he looked a bit out of sorts coming back in - in fact, to be honest, I thought he was going to go lame. Don't know if he might've just twanged himself a bit behind when he stumbled, or even when he overstretched for his last jump, but he did look a bit wobbly. Personally, I think the horse decided to override the controls today. He'd already put in a couple of short take-offs and got away with them, then he overrode AP's command to take-off when he stumbled on landing, having decided to put himself in short, and then he decided to override instructions again when UR. I don't see that AP did a thing wrong today - in fact, he looked as if he was in for Ye Olde Armchair Ryde, while still reminding the horse about his take off strides and point of take-off - it's that area where DENMAN clearly does think he is master of his own destiny.
 
I agree K - AP was fine Denman was the problem. It is a worry , a mistake seems to shatter his confidence in his jumping .

A bigger worry for me though was the way he failed to pick up - I hope he was just undercooked .
 
Ardross said:
a mistake seems to shatter his confidence in his jumping .

A bigger worry for me though was the way he failed to pick up - I hope he was just undercooked .
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He just overcompensated at the next fence. Interestingly in the Hennessy it was only after the mistake fence that he started putting notable distance between himself and Niche Market.
 
Euronymous said:
He just overcompensated at the next fence. Interestingly in the Hennessy it was only after the mistake fence that he started putting notable distance between himself and Niche Market.
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Yes but NM was 29lb worse off today !!!

As in last year's GC Denman has picked himself up off the floor before but Kauto Star is just so much better than he was in the 2008 GC and will take KS to run way below form or a stupendous improvement in five weeks for Denman to trouble him let alone beat him.
 
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With you on all that, Arders. He looked a real grinder today, not sure if he was getting slowly away from the others, or they were just failing to keep up behind. Before he made the first balls-up, I thought he'd be lighting up a cigar, but he did as Euro suggests over-think the next (and override AP, who was only trying to make him confident of his strides) and there we see the result. Perhaps it is true, then, what the chaps on ATR were alluding to - the horse is beginning perhaps not so much to get 'cute', but to over-think his fences and not trust his jockey's instructions. That doesn't bode terribly well! KAUTO, on the other hand, seems to relish being told what to do, and appreciates being confidently instructed.
 
krizon said:
DO - you've got to be joking about AIR FORCE ONE! Dreadful throughout - has to overcome its mad action, yes, but really scrabbled over most jumps, stumbled about and while he's managed a third, I wouldn't be in the least attracted to him for later.
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Yes, he managed a reasonable third in spite of all that untidy jumping on his first run for nearly a year. I don't imagine he was 100% ready today yet he nearly ran up the backside of an opponent turning out of the back straight before being left behind. I thought he plugged well enough up the straight without being given a hard race.

I'm look forward to his next race.
 
Ardross said:
Yes but NM was 29lb worse off today !!!

As in last year's GC Denman has picked himself up off the floor before but Kauto Star is just so much better than he was in the 2008 GC and will take KS to run way below form or a stupendous improvement in five weeks for Denman to trouble him let alone beat him.
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I don't think the weight differential was relevent at the time. Denman was just having a canter round. I think this fall is gonna be overplayed in the betting market. After all KS fell in the Betfair before he won the King George in 2008. There is no doubt this fall will and is being overplayed in the betting market. Although it is only Kauto that seems to have shortened. Surely if Denman's chances have been compromised then Cooldine and Imperial Commander should have come in a tad as well.
 
Euronymous said:
I don't think the weight differential was relevent at the time. Denman was just having a canter round. I think this fall is gonna be overplayed in the betting market. After all KS fell in the Betfair before he won the King George in 2008. There is no doubt this fall will and is being overplayed in the betting market. Although it is only Kauto that seems to have shortened. Surely if Denman's chances have been compromised then Cooldine and Imperial Commander should have come in a tad as well.
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This is two uncompleted runs out of his last three starts. Denman was/is meant to be the solid jumper, the reliable one in comparison to Kauto Star - well at least in the eyes of Denman supporters. I find it hard to believe than when the coal is been thrown in on the second circuit of the Gold Cup that there will be no doubts about his jumping whatsoever.

What's more, if the jump mistake is being overplayed his proximity to the others before any semblance of a mistake and McCoy's comments is even a greater worry for me.
 
Galileo said:
What's more, if the jump mistake is being overplayed his proximity to the others before any semblance of a mistake and McCoy's comments is even a greater worry for me.
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I don't know and care less what McCoy has to say but he hadn't been asked a question all race so how is the others proximity to him relevent?
 
McCoy said he'd asked him to quicken and he didn't. So he had been asked a question.

Mccoy was very frank when interviewed after his win on GMOOH, and that was after having a good half hour to think about choosing his words.

He said he was disappointed not to have shaken off Niche Market at the cross fence and asked him to quicken going to the first in the straight, hoping a good series of jumps would take him clear but the horse didn't quicken or lengthen, which TV pictures would appear to bear out. NM was starting to close again at the first in the straight and Denman wasn't finding anything.

I'm happy to assume that they thought they didn't need Denman to be anywhere near 100% today to win and I don't find it hard to envisage a fully fit Denman running his race in the Gold Cup. Denman's faithful supporters might see the lengthening of his odds as a wee bonus.

I've always been in the Kauto Star camp anyway.
 
Euronymous said:
I don't know and care less what McCoy has to say but he hadn't been asked a question all race so how is the others proximity to him relevent?
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Like I said, watch the race because McCoy was asking the question and he was being closed down coming into the fence - possibly passed?
 
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