The Gold Cup 2010

I have backed Cooldine (again) tonight......the more I look at the race the more I think he is virtually guaranteed to come at worst third with the possibility of more if the one or two of the top two disappoint.

I think he is comfortably better than the likes of Imperial Commander and co in the test the Gold Cup is likely to set up as.

I think yesterday's run is similar to his run on the corresponding card last year against Forpadytheplasterer. On that day he was pretty unimpressed and looked to be pretty laboured but that run (as I expect yesterdays) brought him on considerably plus the test of the Gold Cup should suit him ideally. In a "normal" year he would be pretty hard to beat in a Gold Cup.
 
I think 2008 is irrelevant . Kauto Star is a much improved horse over staying trips even since then and will they really attack like that with Denman this year especially considering the health problems the horse suffered after that . Ruby Walsh rode a much more conservative race on him in this year's Hennessy than Thomas did in 2007-8 season .

The other factor is surely the ground - Kauto Star seems much more proficient nowadays at handling very soft ground if it were to turn out like that and if the ground is like 2007 and 2009 rather than 2008 that will put matters in his favour further.

Also I think the switch from trying to win everything with Kauto - to a Best Mate type preparation meant he was in much better shape for Cheltenham last year than in 2007 and 2008

The real thrill of this GC is that they both appear to be significantly better horses than they were in 2008 . I just think Kauto has improved the most.
 
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Ardross said:
I think 2008 is irrelevant . Kauto Star is a much improved horse over staying trips even since then and will they really attack like that with Denman this year especially considering the health problems the horse suffered after that . Ruby Walsh rode a much more conservative race on him in this year's Hennessy than Thomas did in 2007-8 season .

The other factor is surely the ground - Kauto Star seems much more proficient nowadays at handling very soft ground if it were to turn out like that and if the ground is like 2007 and 2009 rather than 2008 that will put matters in his favour further.

Also I think the switch from trying to win everything with Kauto - to a Best Mate type preparation meant he was in much better shape for Cheltenham last year than in 2007 and 2008

The real thrill of this GC is that they both appear to be significantly better horses than they were in 2008 . I just think Kauto has improved the most.
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You can bet all you have they will "really attack" the GC.

The horses previous health issues are now irrelevant.

In 2008 both horses arrived both in good order, Denman destroyed him. And Kauto excuses only surfaced AFTER the race, which sounded like sour grapes to me.

Denman went at a pace KS couldn't live with, couldn't jump at.

And they'll do exactly the same this year. They were restricted last year IMO by the health issues.

Denman should be fav, my only concern is the jockey, I'd rather Sam Thomas.
 
Mr.Jake said:
Denman went at a pace KS couldn't live with, couldn't jump at.
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This is getting pretty irritating as it is not correct - Kauto Star was making mistakes and sticky at his fences BEFORE Denman took up the running. Claim Denman is the better horse all you like but lets stick to the facts - and it is not just you Mr.Jake.
 
Galileo said:
This is getting pretty irritating as it is not correct - Kauto Star was making mistakes and sticky at his fences BEFORE Denman took up the running. Claim Denman is the better horse all you like but lets stick to the facts - and it is not just you Mr.Jake.
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Neptune Collenge was taking them along fast enough in the early stages all the same it doesnt matter who is making it just the pace they were going at
 
Hamm said:
So now Neptune Collonges took Kauto Star off his feet?

:lol::lol::lol:
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Get your facts right and look at the times of the 2007 and 2009 GC in comparison with the 2008 one.

As others have posted Neptune did go a fierce gallop early, and Kauto couldn't hack it. On the second circuit Denman upped it again, and then Kauto really fell apart. In fact Kauto was so tired Neptune nearly caught him. Some people make out this is a reason to forgive the run, that Neptune couldn't get that close to the "real" Kauto. That's rubbish. The issue Kauto had that day was the pace of the race, and if you believe it was something else you are naively believing what connections said after the race IMO.

I hope it is not too irritating for you to hear someone else's opinion.
 
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A winner of two tingle creeks taken off his feet by two stayers? Couldn't go the pace?

He didn't jump, plan and simple. Probably wasn't Ruby's finest hour either. The idea that Denman is "quicker" than Kauto is patently nonsense...
 
Mr.Jake said:
Get your facts right and look at the times of the 2007 and 2009 GC in comparison with the 2008 one.

Some people make out this is a reason to forgive the run, that Neptune couldn't get that close to the "real" Kauto. That's rubbish.
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Errr, no it's not. It's about as close to fact as we will get in this game of (differing) opinions.
 
Hamm said:
Errr, no it's not. It's about as close to fact as we will get in this game of (differing) opinions.
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I think it simply proves Kauto doesn't stay 3 and quarter at fast pace on an up and down track like cheltenham.

His best runs have been on the flat over 3 at christmas, and 2009 race was run very very slow.
 
Maybe by your logic Denman doesn't either then?

From what I saw, didn't Kauto reduce the distance between them in the closing mile of the race?
 
Hamm said:
Maybe by your logic Denman doesn't either then?

From what I saw, didn't Kauto reduce the distance between them in the closing mile of the race?
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Well he beat him 7 lengths, so i'd say he stays ok!!! :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Sure KS closed on him marginally in last mile, but he never threatened.

By your logic, a horse taken out the back in a race and improves in the last mile, but is beaten 15 l is a stayer.
 
Galileo said:
I have backed Cooldine (again) tonight......the more I look at the race the more I think he is virtually guaranteed to come at worst third with the possibility of more if the one or two of the top two disappoint
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Something is niggling at me that he is just not the horse of old. I hope that i'm wrong, but I just couldn't be backing him
 
From my understanding the race times were as follows
2009 6m 44.95s on gs
2008 6m 47.84s on gs
2007 6m 40.46s on gs

I take it gs is not always good to soft. And any horse that can destroy a field at kempton like kauto done on boxing day can get 3m 2f no problem.
 
bigfow said:
From my understanding the race times were as follows
2009 6m 44.95s on gs
2008 6m 47.84s on gs
2007 6m 40.46s on gs

I take it gs is not always good to soft. And any horse that can destroy a field at kempton like kauto done on boxing day can get 3m 2f no problem.
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Any horse that wins two Gold Cup's and finishes 7L second in another, gets 3m2f no problem.

The suggestion that Kauto Star doesn't stay the Gold Cup trip is....well....it's nonsense.
 
bigfow said:
From my understanding the race times were as follows
2009 6m 44.95s on gs
2008 6m 47.84s on gs
2007 6m 40.46s on gs

I take it gs is not always good to soft. And any horse that can destroy a field at kempton like kauto done on boxing day can get 3m 2f no problem.
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Timeform rated the going as good in 2007.
 
I ahve the ground as good in 2007 but Kauto Star's time was only 17lbs faster than Drombeag in the Foxhunters.

The ground was much slower the next year but Denman was 41lbs faster than Amicelli.

Last year, Kauto Star was 28lbs faster than the winner of the Foxhunters.

That will probably cheer up the pro-Denman camp.
 
Mr.Jake said:
As others have posted Neptune did go a fierce gallop early, and Kauto couldn't hack it. On the second circuit Denman upped it again, and then Kauto really fell apart.
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I've gone back and timed sections of the two races for those who like that kind of thing (you know who you are ;) ):

2008 - from the last fence first time around to the same point on the second circuit (where Denman took it up), Neptune Collonges took almost exactly 3 mins 3 secs. Denman then covered the following circuit (same distance used) in 2 mins 56 secs.

2009 - Neptune Collonges covered the first circuit on similar ground in 3 mins 5 secs. Kauto Star covered the second circuit in 2 mins 56 secs.

Interestingly, Denman was a full two seconds slower up the run in in 2008 than Kauto Star was in 2009.

In terms of analysing pace rather than absolute merit, you shouldn't need to adjust too much for minor going discrepancies to reach a conclusion.
 
rorydelargy said:
Interestingly, Denman was a full two seconds slower up the run in in 2008 than Kauto Star was in 2009.
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Chasers and Hurdlers 2007/8 report that between the second last and the fourth last, Denman ran a sectional quicker than the principals in the Grand Annual over the same part of the course later in the afternoon. If you have the videos handy, any chance of comparing Kauto's second Gold Cup over the same part of the track? To me it's no surprise that Denman was out on his feet at the end of the Gold Cup, as though people say Thomas rode the perfect race on Denman, they fail to take into account that he kicked for home too soon.
 
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