The Gold Cup 2010

I would be interested to see how long it took from 4 out in the Aon to the line compared with the Game Spirit.

Master Minded was no doubt easing up, but I suspect they crawled home in the Aon.

All is far from lost if you're a Denman supporter in my view.
 
J Alfred Prufrock said:
Mischief-making grasshopper would have you believe that you are better extrapolating a view about one horse from another than forming a view about both horses in a wider context.

There is every chance that the similarity in margins between Denman and Neptune Collonges in the two races is little more than a coincidence.
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But then you are a wise man Pru (...not suggesting for a minute that Grassy isn't). :)
 
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halmahera said:
I would be interested to see how long it took from 4 out in the Aon to the line compared with the Game Spirit.

Master Minded was no doubt easing up, but I suspect they crawled home in the Aon.

All is far from lost if you're a Denman supporter in my view.
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Agree, the certainty with which Kauto is being supported has little basis. He's favourite, and has every right to be, but Denman can be incredible on his day, and Kauto has run and jumped badly before. I think they would be very very close, if they both had a good day, and if Denman was ridden to win without any concerns, unlike last year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't know yet if I'll have a bet in the race.
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If you don't want to bet against Kauto, I reckon you are right... you shouldn't have a bet rather than actually back the favourite.

However, you'd be turning down astonishing value on the 4s (I've taken more today) on a horse that must be in the first two and imo the first one.
 
I think Celestial Halo has a better chance of winning the Champion Hurdle than Denman has of winning the Gold Cup....
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think Celestial Halo has a better chance of winning the Champion Hurdle than Denman has of winning the Gold Cup....
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As you know I'm a big fan of Celestial, but I think he'll be struggling to find a place in the frame and am sure he won't reverse last year's form with Punjabi. Where that leaves Punjabi who knows, but I'd say fairly near the front.

As for Denman he has one horse to beat, more than can be said of Celestial.
 
I obviously see things differently.

I reckon if everything in the champion runs to its best, Celestial Halo has the best chance of winning.

If everything runs to its best in the Gold Cup, the best Denman can hope for is second place.

Hence I think CH has a better chance of winning his race than D has of winning his.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I obviously see things differently.

I reckon if everything in the champion runs to its best, Celestial Halo has the best chance of winning.

If everything runs to its best in the Gold Cup, the best Denman can hope for is second place.

Hence I think CH has a better chance of winning his race than D has of winning his.
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Like you say, we see things differently on this. I still think Denman has the best chance of winning the Gold Cup, While I think Celestial will be doing very well to reach the frame.

Remember before the Hennessy we agreed that Denman's task would be easier in the Gold Cup than it was in the Handicap (and you saw what he did in that).
 
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SteveM said:
Remember before the Hennessy we agreed that Denman's task would be easier in the Gold Cup than it was in the Handicap (and you saw what he did in that).
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Wasn't that assessment rendered somewhat irrelevant by the improvement KS showed between Haydock and Kempton, and also by Denman's failure (for whatever reason) in the Aon??
 
SteveM said:
Remember before the Hennessy we agreed that Denman's task would be easier in the Gold Cup than it was in the Handicap (and you saw what he did in that).
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Not so sure about this. Denman really is built to carry weight. He did it very well in the Hennessy but does that mean he will be able to run any faster against a much superior horse to those he faced at Newbury?
 
Miss Nero said:
Not so sure about this. Denman really is built to carry weight. He did it very well in the Hennessy but does that mean he will be able to run any faster against a much superior horse to those he faced at Newbury?
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Interestingly it was Denman's underlying speed performance that was impressive in the Hennessy. I agree that Denman has an ability to carry weight, but this doesn't hurt in Grade 1 contests.
 
Steve, the notion that Kauto Star achieved a similar rating in 2009 as he did when beaten in 2008 is where your theory implodes. :D
 
Name and shame them. :D

The Official Ratings for the two performances were 186 (2009) and 180 (2008).

Timeform had 2009 rated at 184, and whilst I don't know their rating for 2008, it was certainly less than the 182 they awarded him for the 207 King George.

I would be surprised if most handicappers (official or otherwise) didn't have at least 6lbs between the two performances.
 
I think it was rated higher at the time, possibly by around 4lb, but Kauto Star's Gold Cup performance figure in 2008 currently stands at 168.
 
Okay. Thanks, I can't check the ratings for myself on the machine I'm on. So in answer to Aidan's original question let's say something like low- to mid-180s... which look reasonable ballpark figures. A bit above what he was capable of the first time he won it.
 
davidjohnson said:
I think it was rated higher at the time, possibly by around 4lb, but Kauto Star's Gold Cup performance figure in 2008 currently stands at 168.
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That's presumably your Timeform figure? I'm sure the RPRs are much closer together for 2009 and 2008 (those with access might confirm).
 
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