The King George
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
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Bruce_Savage
Guest
I don't think the bounce theory was ever scientifically verified.
People widely use it to this day though, interesting.
People widely use it to this day though, interesting.
Zenyatta
At the Start
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I agree that the 'bounce theory' might be a concern. However, in my mind it is a small question mark over a horse that we know for certain still retains the necessary ability and is nigh on unbeatable round Kempton when in top order.
That small question mark pales into relative insignificance when compared to some of those hanging over the other contenders.
To be honest, I think the 'bounce' thing with regard to Kauto Star has been overplayed somewhat. I'm not saying he won't but I don't think it is as significant a factor as many are giving it credit for.
That small question mark pales into relative insignificance when compared to some of those hanging over the other contenders.
To be honest, I think the 'bounce' thing with regard to Kauto Star has been overplayed somewhat. I'm not saying he won't but I don't think it is as significant a factor as many are giving it credit for.
PN himself said (after last season's King George) that the Gold Cup would suit Kauto much better than the KG, as the horse had lost some of his speed, and I've little doubt that's why he was ridden so aggressively at Haydock.
It was jumping, not speed, that won him that, and he'll have to - at least - emulate that performance to win at Kempton, However, now the cat is out of the bag, few will take him on in he same manner, and he's likely to be stalked, and then buried for speed by wiser opponents.
Wouldn't have him on my mind for a good ground KG, on the simple grounds he won't be quick enough, whereas, as last season, the grind of the Gold Cup is likely to suit him so much better.
It was jumping, not speed, that won him that, and he'll have to - at least - emulate that performance to win at Kempton, However, now the cat is out of the bag, few will take him on in he same manner, and he's likely to be stalked, and then buried for speed by wiser opponents.
Wouldn't have him on my mind for a good ground KG, on the simple grounds he won't be quick enough, whereas, as last season, the grind of the Gold Cup is likely to suit him so much better.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Your talking like Kauto Star has turned into a slow boat Reet. There were more horses in the race at haydock than Long Run. Weird Al for example isn't exactly slow and Kauto has retained enough speed to leave him trailing.
For years people have said Kauto Star is better at Kempton than Cheltenham and who could argue after the Arkle like performance of 2008?
For a normal horse the Gold Cup may be the more suitable race but Kauto Star is far from normal. Pheonominal speed won him 2 Gold Cups, the ability to leave others standing at just the right time gave him such advatage he only nedded to put one leg in front of the other going up the hill to ensure he wouldn't be caught.
Now he has lost some of his speed he no longer can slip his opponents. His speed is dented even more with the undulations and stiffness of the track by the time he gets to the hill he can't get up it as stamina was never his number one asset.
Back on a flat track like Haydock or Kempton with no undulations stamina is not an issue and Kauto Star as he showed in the Betfai certainly retains enough speed to kick any other chaser. There much better jumpers out there than Kauto Stars mate and the don't win Grade 1 races so to say jumping only won him the day is bordering on nonsense. I do get your point that Long Run made mistakes but as I said Weird Al who is surely one of the faster young horses in training couldn't even get a blow in.
Long run beat a very sick Kauto Star last season at Kempton and although Kauto looked more like his old self at Chletenham but with some of his speed gone that he used to his advatage in years gone by, gone Long Run and Denman simply outstayed him. If PN thinks that will change he needs to see a shrink
Howver Kauto Star emphatically proved the King George form to be all wrong by a turaround of over 20 lengths at Haydock yet you and others think by some mircale and the help of Yoge Bresner all of a sudden Long Run going to reverse that with ease and Kauto Star has no chance.
If the same Kauto Star turns up at Kempton that ran at Haydock there's no way on this earth will Long Run beat him anywhere near as far as he did last year, if he beats him at all. Captain Chris might as he has bags of toe, can jump and if he turns out to be better at 3 miles than he was at 2 miles he'd be very hard to beat.
I'm not one for value either you think a horse can win or he can't and price really doesn't come into it but 7/4 about Long Run is the worst value I have seen in years. he can't jump he's thick as two short planks and can't be trusted and inch.
Hope he enjoyed his brief spell at the top because it's about to come to a sudden end He's already been kicked of the top of the pecking list by Sprinter Sacre in the minds of most of the lads at Seven Barrows as they simply don't trust him anymore.
Kauto Star may not have as much speed as he had but he's still a force to be reckoned with and Long Run will need to be foot perfect every inch of the way to stand a chance of beating him. I give Kauto the edge simply because no course in the world suits him better than Kempton. The old Kauto would have beaten Long Run 20 lengths round there and even with some of that speed gone he can prove his superior once again come Boxing day.
For years people have said Kauto Star is better at Kempton than Cheltenham and who could argue after the Arkle like performance of 2008?
For a normal horse the Gold Cup may be the more suitable race but Kauto Star is far from normal. Pheonominal speed won him 2 Gold Cups, the ability to leave others standing at just the right time gave him such advatage he only nedded to put one leg in front of the other going up the hill to ensure he wouldn't be caught.
Now he has lost some of his speed he no longer can slip his opponents. His speed is dented even more with the undulations and stiffness of the track by the time he gets to the hill he can't get up it as stamina was never his number one asset.
Back on a flat track like Haydock or Kempton with no undulations stamina is not an issue and Kauto Star as he showed in the Betfai certainly retains enough speed to kick any other chaser. There much better jumpers out there than Kauto Stars mate and the don't win Grade 1 races so to say jumping only won him the day is bordering on nonsense. I do get your point that Long Run made mistakes but as I said Weird Al who is surely one of the faster young horses in training couldn't even get a blow in.
Long run beat a very sick Kauto Star last season at Kempton and although Kauto looked more like his old self at Chletenham but with some of his speed gone that he used to his advatage in years gone by, gone Long Run and Denman simply outstayed him. If PN thinks that will change he needs to see a shrink
Howver Kauto Star emphatically proved the King George form to be all wrong by a turaround of over 20 lengths at Haydock yet you and others think by some mircale and the help of Yoge Bresner all of a sudden Long Run going to reverse that with ease and Kauto Star has no chance.
If the same Kauto Star turns up at Kempton that ran at Haydock there's no way on this earth will Long Run beat him anywhere near as far as he did last year, if he beats him at all. Captain Chris might as he has bags of toe, can jump and if he turns out to be better at 3 miles than he was at 2 miles he'd be very hard to beat.
I'm not one for value either you think a horse can win or he can't and price really doesn't come into it but 7/4 about Long Run is the worst value I have seen in years. he can't jump he's thick as two short planks and can't be trusted and inch.
Hope he enjoyed his brief spell at the top because it's about to come to a sudden end He's already been kicked of the top of the pecking list by Sprinter Sacre in the minds of most of the lads at Seven Barrows as they simply don't trust him anymore.
Kauto Star may not have as much speed as he had but he's still a force to be reckoned with and Long Run will need to be foot perfect every inch of the way to stand a chance of beating him. I give Kauto the edge simply because no course in the world suits him better than Kempton. The old Kauto would have beaten Long Run 20 lengths round there and even with some of that speed gone he can prove his superior once again come Boxing day.
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Where did I say that Long Run would be the one to beat him?:blink:
LR was one of the 3 to take him on in the jumping stakes at Haydock and, like Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert, ran well below form as a consequence.
Weird Al, on the other hand, was kept well away from the other principals. and was the only one, KS apart, to run to anything like his form.
If Kauto is to win a good ground KG, then it's fairly certain he'll have to adopt much the same tactics, but that trick has already been sprung, and I sincerely doubt the result will be repeated.
LR was one of the 3 to take him on in the jumping stakes at Haydock and, like Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert, ran well below form as a consequence.
Weird Al, on the other hand, was kept well away from the other principals. and was the only one, KS apart, to run to anything like his form.
If Kauto is to win a good ground KG, then it's fairly certain he'll have to adopt much the same tactics, but that trick has already been sprung, and I sincerely doubt the result will be repeated.
What utter tripe. His jumping wasn't as fluent at Haydock as it could have been but none of the mistakes he made were as bad as some of the howlers Kauto has put in over the years, and it's to Long Run's credit he ran on when looking like he would be annihilated. He's never fallen in 19 races and is the reigning KG / GC winner. If that's the record of a 6yo horse that "can't jump", is "thick as two short planks" and "can't be trusted an inch" can I have a stable-full please?
I love Kauto more than I should be prepared to admit and it would make my Christmas if he won another KG, but I'm with EC1 and Katharine. I think there are a lot of people getting carried away (albeit understandably, up to a point) with the Betfair and what it might mean for the rest of the season. Last year, Kauto won his first run of the season in a Grade 1 while Long Run was beaten in a handicap. But we all know what the score was at at the end of the season.
It's been said over and over again, before and after the race that the Betfair wasn't Long Run's target while it was Kauto's. The WCs and Nicky H were possibly guilty of a degree of overconfidence, thinking they could beat a declining Kauto with a 75% fit Long Run. They won't make that mistake at Kempton.
Zenyatta
At the Start
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For what it's worth I think Kauto's Betfair effort might have been slightly underrated. For the official ratings Weird Al was used as the benchmark but I think this is at least a little misleading given that he was never put into the race. I appreciate that the alternatives were limited but I wound have it a bit better than the 174 he was allotted. In my mind that performance round Kempton wins the King George. I can't wait to see whether he can do it. He is such a wonderful horse and I doubt anybody will be wishing for anything else this Christmas.
I think the argument that he is now slow is poor. He did everything for raw cruising speed at Haydock. He also travelled easily the best on the Gold Cup (traded odds on in running). I really think that Nicholls' comments in regard of his breathing last year make perfect sense. He went from travelling comfortably to going up and down on the spot in the Gold Cup very quickly. I try not to get taken in by these 'excuses' but it fits with what I saw so seems to make sense on this occasion. His jumping and ability to travel strongly will always stand him in good stead at Kempton. Master Mindee won't stay but I can see him having everything else, including Long Run, at it rounding the home turn. So long as he doesn't stop in front, and I see no obvious reason why he should, then I think the rest will have it all to do to get past him.
I feel I know what Long Run can do, and I think an on song Kauto can deal with that round Kempton. The one I fear is Captain Chris, who, despite his interrupted preparation remains open to any amount of improvement upped in trip.
One thing is for sure, if the principals all arrive in top form then we are in for one hell if a race.
I think the argument that he is now slow is poor. He did everything for raw cruising speed at Haydock. He also travelled easily the best on the Gold Cup (traded odds on in running). I really think that Nicholls' comments in regard of his breathing last year make perfect sense. He went from travelling comfortably to going up and down on the spot in the Gold Cup very quickly. I try not to get taken in by these 'excuses' but it fits with what I saw so seems to make sense on this occasion. His jumping and ability to travel strongly will always stand him in good stead at Kempton. Master Mindee won't stay but I can see him having everything else, including Long Run, at it rounding the home turn. So long as he doesn't stop in front, and I see no obvious reason why he should, then I think the rest will have it all to do to get past him.
I feel I know what Long Run can do, and I think an on song Kauto can deal with that round Kempton. The one I fear is Captain Chris, who, despite his interrupted preparation remains open to any amount of improvement upped in trip.
One thing is for sure, if the principals all arrive in top form then we are in for one hell if a race.
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Hutchy
At the Start
Just as a little aside did we all see Sam Waley-Cohen's ride on Otage De Brion at Fakenham.
I watched the race and was shouting you've got to go around again but to no avail he missed out the jump in front of the stands.
What bothered me is that he said he knew what he was doing and if that was the case he did a fantastic job of disguising it. No wonder the stewards didn't accept his explanation.
Gone right down in my estimation.
I watched the race and was shouting you've got to go around again but to no avail he missed out the jump in front of the stands.
What bothered me is that he said he knew what he was doing and if that was the case he did a fantastic job of disguising it. No wonder the stewards didn't accept his explanation.
Gone right down in my estimation.
Soary Stars
At the Start
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Absolutely ... do jolly it along, Father Christmas, waiting again after Xmas for Boxing Day ... err, well Saturday, 31st or is it on the 24th ... oh, it's Monday the 26th!
What a card !
Bar the Bull
At the Start
He bounced back just as much as Bounce Back did to win the Betfred Gold Cup for Pipe years ago.
The question is will he bounce at Kempton as much as Bounce Back did after that bounce back at Sandown.
Isn't it?
The question is will he bounce at Kempton as much as Bounce Back did after that bounce back at Sandown.
Isn't it?
On The Bridle
At the Start
I have a feeling that a couple of the fancied ones may bomb out -
Long Run most likely winner - not at the prices though
Kauto - love to see him do it but last year lives long in the memory
Masterminded - pure class doubtful stayer
Captain Chris - see MM
Somersby - barks too often to be called a horse
Planet of Sound would have a squeak ew. Is he defo going to run?
Long Run most likely winner - not at the prices though
Kauto - love to see him do it but last year lives long in the memory
Masterminded - pure class doubtful stayer
Captain Chris - see MM
Somersby - barks too often to be called a horse
Planet of Sound would have a squeak ew. Is he defo going to run?
I was going to back him at 50s ew the other day but had the same question as you. Good ground would give his place chances a boost.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I can assure you he wasn't only 75% fit. Not that you can put a percentage on it. Nicky Henderson claimed he had got plenty work into him and Sam Walley Cohen said he was very fit and ready. They were supremely confident befiore the race and sick as parrots afterwards. Nicky then stated "he'll come on a lot for that" but convinced no one.
There's no denying Kauto was much fitter than usual for his first run but it doesn't alter the fact Long Run never at any stage looked like beating him.
To be fair it wouldn't be the first time Nicky has left a horse with something to work on but they don't come under pressure 7 fences from home in Grade 1chases. It was actually before that fence when the first signs that Long Run was finding the pace a bit too hot. Sam had to take hold of him and gave him a sqeeze to get closer then asked himfor a big one and he walked stright into the fence. From there on hin Sam been riding a losing battle and given Long Run one helluva hard race.
That certainly wasn't part of the plan and no way to prepare a horse for a big race.
If he wasn't fit and the idea was to get him straight for the King George Nicky would have torn the guy a new backside for a ride like that if he didn't own the horse. If a Trainer knows a horse will need a run in a race like that he'll give the instruction win if you can but don't give him a hard race.
I saw no evidence of that so I can only assume either Nicky bit his tongue because of who owns the horse or the horse was all out to win and fit enough to do so.
Long Run has been under the tution of Yogi Bresener for close on 15 months which is much longer than most horses have ever had to be.
When he comes under pressure like he did at Haydock and in the Paddy Power it's like he's forgotten everything he's learned and reverts back to treating UK fence like those brush hurdle things they call fences in France where he learned his trade. You would think after walking through 1/2 dozen he would have learned it hurts but either he's incapable of jumping properly under pressure or he's thick.
No one is denying he's done really well or he may even win the King George again but people are getting carried away. He beat a novice and an off colour, not as good as he once was, Kauto Star and a novice in Riverside Theatre. Then he beat kauto who stopped to a walk and the now retired well over the hill Denman in the Gold Cup. With some new kids on the block like Captain Chris, Rubi Light and even more importantlyhis own stable companion Sprtier Sacre he'll find life a bit more difficult in time and if he can come anyhwere near emulating Kauto Star I'll be mazed.
As much as I love Kauto it would be extraordinary for him to win either of the KG or Gold Cup. He had his win the other day. He’ll no doubt need recovery time between his races and while I can see why they would want to have another crack at the KG they may have been better off preparing him for the Gold Cup (even though I believe he is better suited to the KG). A mid-170 to 180 performance from him the other day was entitled to beat a ring rusty Long Run. Kauto was the one who was spot on.
Long Run on the other hand is virtually half Kauto’s age. He’ll come on for the run rather than needing a break and will take an enormous amount of beating as a horse capable of running to 180 in his own right. There aren’t too many others capable of running to that mark. Master Minded is one though.
I’ll say again that there is nothing wrong with Long Run’s jumping and indeed much that is right. Nicky H in fact said that he had never seen him jump better than he did the other day. Indeed he is a much better jumper of a fence than Kauto has been in the past (even though Kauto jumped splendidly well on his latest start).
Long Run on the other hand is virtually half Kauto’s age. He’ll come on for the run rather than needing a break and will take an enormous amount of beating as a horse capable of running to 180 in his own right. There aren’t too many others capable of running to that mark. Master Minded is one though.
I’ll say again that there is nothing wrong with Long Run’s jumping and indeed much that is right. Nicky H in fact said that he had never seen him jump better than he did the other day. Indeed he is a much better jumper of a fence than Kauto has been in the past (even though Kauto jumped splendidly well on his latest start).
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Captain Chris on course for King George according to the RP Website.
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Captain Chris on course for King George according to the RP Website.
I like this horse. The report sounds encouraging. He is likely to have a lot on his plate in this though.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
True. And I'm not sure the 10s I have is rampant value. But he has enormous scope for improvement once taking in a trip and I can't have either of the Nicholls animals for the race, great as they've both been. My cover strategy will be to take 11/4 about Long Run for Cheltenham in anticipation of his odds tumbling once the race is over.
Nicky said he had never jumped better for "the first circuit" if i recall rightly.
Unfortunately they had to go round again....
Im with Tanlic I do not believe for one moment that Henderson got LG "75% fit" for a race like this. hes always been excellent at bringing them, back after a break and this was the third biggest staying chase of the season FFS
Unfortunately they had to go round again....
Im with Tanlic I do not believe for one moment that Henderson got LG "75% fit" for a race like this. hes always been excellent at bringing them, back after a break and this was the third biggest staying chase of the season FFS
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Zenyatta
At the Start
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- Nov 4, 2011
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- 587
Couldn't agree and disagree more!
I think Captain Chris has any amount of improvement in him up in trip. Master Minded wouldn't stay 3m in the horsebox so I agree I that regard too.
However, I do think Kauto is a massive danger. If he's on song then I would expect him to go very close indeed.
I've backed Captain Chris EW at 9/1 (probably not the best value ever, but he shortened up considerably for a fair while after I took that price) and Kauto at 5/1 EW (he must shorten as the race closes and think he's booked for a place whatever happens). I'm very happy to have those two EW against the field.
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I am a huge fan of Long Run, but I think you have an outstanding bet, especially if it is each way. I can't see him out of the first 3 and he is, Long Run aside, the only improver in the race.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Not really will but you never know. Kauto and Denman were never involved in anything like that.
Paul Nichols believes Kauto can beat Long Run again or at least struggle to pull back 8 lengths. Master Minded would have a great chance if he stayed.
That said looking back at the Paddy Power it was probably the worst round of jumping I've seen from top class horse. There was hardly a fence where Long Run never lost ground but whether that was due to him being unfit or was down to the crazy pace Little Josh went off at and kept up all the way round I don't know. It could be an idea for Master Minded to go off in front but there's nothing to say Long Run will go with him.
One thing's for sure he's more than capable of throwing a race away on his own accord. This is one thick horse ask Cruella
Many assume Kauto won't recover in time but Long Run who had a much tougher race than him will. Maybe they are right.
To be honest both should be perfectly fine. After a hard race a trainer might rest a horse for 2-3 weeks and the most he'll do is some road work or have a swim or simply laze about.
Then it's a case of working the fat off again and bringing him back up to his peak. Even if you think Long Run wasn't fit the procedure would only be slightly different but the end result hopefully the same.
PH did say Kauto needs time between his race after he was beaten by Denman but we can't even be sure him runnung at Ascot after Kempton was the real reason. Ruby said he might have left his race at Ascot because he couldn't understand why he was so lack lustre that day but he wasn't dogmatic about it and said he just couldn't put his finger on it.
Anyway PN made the desion and he did win the Gold Cup again but there's no evidence to say he wouldn't have still done so had he gone to Ascot again.
Kauto defintly wasn't his usual self last seaon in the King George, but did run better in the Gold Cup but nno where near as well as before.
Despite that and evryone thinking he's finished he bounces back and wins the Betfair beating Long Run and the very talented young horse Weird Al.
How on earth is that possible for a horse who old age had supposidly caught up with?. It's not like it was a slow run race it was Kauto's fastest ever time in the event.
He may not be the horse he once was, he'd be 1/3 to win if he were but write him off at your peril.
Paul Nichols believes Kauto can beat Long Run again or at least struggle to pull back 8 lengths. Master Minded would have a great chance if he stayed.
That said looking back at the Paddy Power it was probably the worst round of jumping I've seen from top class horse. There was hardly a fence where Long Run never lost ground but whether that was due to him being unfit or was down to the crazy pace Little Josh went off at and kept up all the way round I don't know. It could be an idea for Master Minded to go off in front but there's nothing to say Long Run will go with him.
One thing's for sure he's more than capable of throwing a race away on his own accord. This is one thick horse ask Cruella
Many assume Kauto won't recover in time but Long Run who had a much tougher race than him will. Maybe they are right.
To be honest both should be perfectly fine. After a hard race a trainer might rest a horse for 2-3 weeks and the most he'll do is some road work or have a swim or simply laze about.
Then it's a case of working the fat off again and bringing him back up to his peak. Even if you think Long Run wasn't fit the procedure would only be slightly different but the end result hopefully the same.
PH did say Kauto needs time between his race after he was beaten by Denman but we can't even be sure him runnung at Ascot after Kempton was the real reason. Ruby said he might have left his race at Ascot because he couldn't understand why he was so lack lustre that day but he wasn't dogmatic about it and said he just couldn't put his finger on it.
Anyway PN made the desion and he did win the Gold Cup again but there's no evidence to say he wouldn't have still done so had he gone to Ascot again.
Kauto defintly wasn't his usual self last seaon in the King George, but did run better in the Gold Cup but nno where near as well as before.
Despite that and evryone thinking he's finished he bounces back and wins the Betfair beating Long Run and the very talented young horse Weird Al.
How on earth is that possible for a horse who old age had supposidly caught up with?. It's not like it was a slow run race it was Kauto's fastest ever time in the event.
He may not be the horse he once was, he'd be 1/3 to win if he were but write him off at your peril.
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