The King George

Lost it.

Nice write up Steve but I cannot, ever, see how anyone could give Somersby a better chance over 3 miles round Kempton than Kauto. I think anyone backing this horse is nuts. He will get shown up in this. I predict he will get left for dead somewhere down the back straight or final corner and plug on to a never nearer fourth or fifth.
 
Golan Way has no chance, and this is nothing more than a nice day out for the syndicate.

Forecast KS and LR for me.
 
I’ve already backed Long Run to win and will back him again if the price relaxes at all.

Assuming eight line up I’ll be backing Master Minded for a place (I believe he is more certain to place than Long Run win) and will put the pair of them into a reverse forecast. Captain Chris has scope for improvement, but I see him as third or fourth.
 
SteveM said:
Assuming eight line up I’ll be backing Master Minded for a place (I believe he is more certain to place than Long Run win)
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I can't have Master Minded for the race at all. I am as sure as I can be that he won't stay and, even if he does, I don't think there is anything in his recent form (bar the possible exception of his Aintree win, although he was fresher than anything else) that suggests he can go close.

What I find more curious is how you think he is a good bet for a place. I would have thought that his supporters would be in the "he wins if he stays" camp. And if he doesn't stay then I don't see him holding on for a place in a field as good as this.

I am actually, believe it or not, a massive fan of the horse but he has never been a potential stayer in my eyes. The whole attempt smacks of desperation because he had no races to go for and Nicholls had nothing to run, until King Kauto returned. I think he could well be pulled up.
 
Zenyatta said:
I can't have Master Minded for the race at all. I am as sure as I can be that he won't stay and, even if he does, I don't think there is anything in his recent form (bar the possible exception of his Aintree win, although he was fresher than anything else) that suggests he can go close.

What I find more curious is how you think he is a good bet for a place. I would have thought that his supporters would be in the "he wins if he stays" camp. And if he doesn't stay then I don't see him holding on for a place in a field as good as this.

I am actually, believe it or not, a massive fan of the horse but he has never been a potential stayer in my eyes. The whole attempt smacks of desperation because he had no races to go for and Nicholls had nothing to run, until King Kauto returned. I think he could well be pulled up.
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The way I see it, something like a 180 performance, or approaching that, will be required to win this one. Only three of them have proved they can run to about this: Long Run, Kauto Star and Master Minded. The rest have something significant to pull out of the hat.

I don’t expect all three of these to run badly, therefore I thinking one of them will win. I can’t see Kauto putting in two 175-180 performance in such a short space of time, so I’m ruling him out of actually winning it. I expect him to put up a show and he may be placed.

That leaves me with the other two. I’m about 90% confident that Long Run will run to something approaching 180 and about as confident that MM will run to somewhere around 175. This would put all of the others in trouble in my opinion. I only see MM winning though if something goes wrong with Long Run. Nevertheless, I can't see MM out of the first three even if the likes of Captain Chris find a stone or more.
 
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I can never get Master Minded right. I didn't give him a chance in the QM as a 5yo. He bolted up. I thought after the Tingle Creek last season that he had a very good chance of regaining his crown. He disappointed.

My first impressions here was that I didn't think MM would stay, and I didn't think his form was good enough. To be honest, I still think that. So he'll probably pop up and surprise me.

I'm still in the Long Run camp but hoping desperately that Kauto can pull it off.
 
I see what you mean. I had a good look at Master Minded's form a while back trying to work out why people fancied him for the race. I must admit it did nothing more than reaffirm my position against him. I concluded that not only was he very unlikely to stay but that he wasn't good enough even if he did. I found myself asking why I had been so stupid as to back him in the Champion Chase when his recent form has not be at the required level. In hindsight it was apparent that he didn't have a realistic chance on form and yet was still favourite. Like many others I had struggled to get his 2008 performance out of my head.

I genuinely don't think he has run to much more than 170 for the last two seasons. I agree that a 180ish performance will be needed, therefore, to win it, he needs to find 10lb improvement for the step up in trip which I just don't see happening. Much more likely, in my view, is that he is at least 10lbs below his form at the trip which leaves him very vulnerable to horses like Captain Chris and Diamond Harry, and even Somersby, who are likely to relish the 3m.

In my book he is a place lay, rather than a bet.
 
Zenyatta said:
I see what you mean. I had a good look at Master Minded's form a while back trying to work out why people fancied him for the race. I must admit it did nothing more than reaffirm my position against him. I concluded that not only was he very unlikely to stay but that he wasn't good enough even if he did. I found myself asking why I had been so stupid as to back him in the Champion Chase when his recent form has not be at the required level. In hindsight it was apparent that he didn't have a realistic chance on form and yet was still favourite. Like many others I had struggled to get his 2008 performance out of my head.

I genuinely don't think he has run to much more than 170 for the last two seasons. I agree that a 180ish performance will be needed, therefore, to win it, he needs to find 10lb improvement for the step up in trip which I just don't see happening. Much more likely, in my view, is that he is at least 10lbs below his form at the trip which leaves him very vulnerable to horses like Captain Chris and Diamond Harry, and even Somersby, who are likely to relish the 3m.

In my book he is a place lay, rather than a bet.
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…I smell a market… perhaps we can do business?

Don’t forget that he’s got his OR back to 178 (admittedly he has be higher than this in the past) between end-2010 and beginning 2011, with wins at Ascot, Cheltenham and Ascot, before dipping back down to about 170 after his flop at the Festival. Nevertheless, after his three subsequent performances at Aintree he is back to 178 again. I’ve not been too concerned about his ability to get the KG trip, as I see him as having more scope than the specialist two-milers.
 
SteveM said:
…I smell a market… perhaps we can do business?

Don’t forget that he’s got his OR back to 178 (admittedly he has be higher than this in the past) between end-2010 and beginning 2011, with wins at Ascot, Cheltenham and Ascot, before dipping back down to about 170 after his flop at the Festival. Nevertheless, after his three subsequent performances at Aintree he is back to 178 again. I’ve not been too concerned about his ability to get the KG trip, as I see him as having more scope than the specialist two-milers.
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His 178 is based purely on his performance at Aintree in the Melling and I think it is not too hard to crib that form. He had an easier race at Cheltenham than any of his rivals. However, I will admit that he won well.

1st Master Minded, 9 lengths back to Albertas Run, another 1/2 length to Somersby and 2 and 3/4 back to Tartak. I appreciate the analysis is crude but he is my interpretation of that form. Tartak is rated 156 and let us assume that he ran to form. That would leave Somersby at around 160 which I think is about right. Then Albertas Run would have run to about 162ish. He is rated 168 but I think given his hard race at Cheltenham that is fair. This would leave Master Minded at around 172 which was his mark going into the race, and give the same difference between him and Albertas Run as the official handicapper, though 6lb lower. I think this was his best performance for a little while but I still have it around 172 in my mind.

I am sure you disagree, and it is easy to crib the crude analysis, but do you see where I'm coming from? I think he's overrated and he won't stay. Simples. :p
 
Fair enough. I'm not so much going on slide rule analysis anyway. The horse just looks in very good nick to me. He can switch off and go with the best of them and we'll see what he's got over the last. When all's said and done it's Long Run for me though.
 
Nevertheless, I can't see MM out of the first three even if the likes of Captain Chris find a stone or more.
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Cant quite have this. I think either he will surprise everyone a little and stay comfortably (bit like Dessies first KG), which i could see translating into a win or at least very close or if he doesnt, he will surely be well back with a couple who could comfortably pass him by (Golans for one)
 
As a post script to the above debate. This is how Timeform rate the participants (irrespective of ability to stay).

Timform King George ratings:

LONG RUN (FR) 180

KAUTO STAR (FR) 178

MASTER MINDED (FR) 173

CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 166 p

SOMERSBY (IRE) 166

DIAMOND HARRY 165

NACARAT (FR) 161

GOLAN WAY 149
 
Grasshopper said:
Assuming he gets that deep into the race. I'm expecting MM to be pulled-up before three out.
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...is this an expectation or a wish. I don't see much basis for this scenario unless he is a complete non-stayer (which I very much doubt).
 
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It's an expectation.

There is zero racecourse evidence that suggests Master Minded will stay 3m.

Nil

Nada

Zip

Sweet fuck all

IMO, it's those suggesting that he will stay 3m, that have no basis for their position.

We will see who is right on Monday.
 
I was reading the Weekender over lunch and according to Mr Segal Master Minded has "absolutely zero chance of winning on Boxing Day".

He must be a mind reader, or else I am, because he has pretty much said exactly what I have. It takes the pressure of a little because if Master Minded bolts up then at least I am going down with the best tipster around!!

The Weekender in general is very strong on Kauto Star, with a few of them tipping him up. I must say that I am inclined to agree. I hope we're all right because what a day that would be.
 
MM was coming to the end of his tether last time at Ascot and only stayed two and half at Aintree because of the nature of the track and the quick ground. He might beat Somersby but would need Long Run, Kauto, Captain Chris and Diamond Harry to all fall for him to win.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Master Minded...King George winner and joint-favourite for the Gold Cup come tea-time on St. Stephen's Day.
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...there's a man not losing sleep over his ability to stay. Personally I'm much more inclined to this view than the notion that he's suddenly going to stop at the KG trip.
 
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I'd love to know what tactics they intend to employ on Diamond Harry. I think he go tired trying to keep pace with Kauto last time and if held up tomorrow I think he could put in a good run. I certainly think he has stronger claims than Somersby and Master Minded. Love to punt him in a match bet with the latter but can't see any prices for it on Oddschecker.
 
I've place-laid Master Minded again at 11/10 .

I really can't have it that he will stay. I don't even think it's borderline.
 
Have you actually backed anything to win? I always feel a bit tweaky laying something if I'm already involved in a market.
 
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