The King George

I'm sure you have all read Paul Nicholls' comments on Kauto Star's breathing but I really do think they ring true, especially his performance in the Gold Cup. Perhaps it was just hampering a little last season for whatever reason and he is back to form this.

I agree with Tanlic that it would be folly to write him off, especially considering he has proven the doubters wrong on many occasions in the past.

In the Guardian: Nicholls suggested the winner's performances last year may have been affected by a breathing issue, signalled by a noise he made in his home work, and an operation was even considered. "For whatever reason, he hasn't made a noise this year," the trainer added. "He can't talk, so God knows why."
 
While I've every respect for PN's openness about his horses, he does tend to think that almost every horse that puts in a poor one has a breathing problem, and has variously described Kauto Star throughout his career as:

Needs time to get fit.
Better fresh
Needs good ground
Better on soft
Kempton is ideal for him
Better at Cheltenham
I want him ridden positively
He's better with a lead, etc, etc

Hardly gives the kind of confidence to hang your hat on, eh?
 
reet hard said:
While I've every respect for PN's openness about his horses, he does tend to think that almost every horse that puts in a poor one has a breathing problem, and has variously described Kauto Star throughout his career as:

Needs time to get fit.
Better fresh
Needs good ground
Better on soft
Kempton is ideal for him
Better at Cheltenham
I want him ridden positively
He's better with a lead, etc, etc

Hardly gives the kind of confidence to hang your hat on, eh?
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He has the trainer's book of excuses like every other one...:whistle:
 
Nicholls is too sensitive to criticism. He has contradicted himself several times in trying to defend his horses. But Kauto Star doesn't need defending. His record speaks for itself.

He's running in his sixth King George, and he's won four of them. He's not the one with anything left to prove.
 
...value looks to have been sucked out of the market. CC may be place value, but could finish fourth or fifth just as easily as second or third. Any relaxation of the favourite's price should probably be taken.
 
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I placed-laid Master Minded a few weeks back, and can't see any way that he will get home. I took 9.6 about Captain Chris this morning, who has much less to prove in terms of his stamina, imo.
 
I am alternating between thinking about backing Long Run heavily or Captain Chris each way, or both. I don't see much chance for the Nicholls runners, and there is nothing else.
 
Hamm said:
I am alternating between thinking about backing Long Run heavily or Captain Chris each way, or both. I don't see much chance for the Nicholls runners, and there is nothing else.
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Exactly how I'm thinking....probably not good news for you Hamm. Am veering towards the mincers ew bet on CC rather than chunky on LR at the prices.
 
Still think Diamond Harry is a massive player in this. Williams yard in form as well. I have been of the opinion MM has been crying out for the trip as well so they're my 2 plays. Would love to see CC run a big race tho as a massive fan.
 
Grasshopper said:
I placed-laid Master Minded a few weeks back, and can't see any way that he will get home. I took 9.6 about Captain Chris this morning, who has much less to prove in terms of his stamina, imo.
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I'm inclined to think that MM will do pretty well. In fact the only thing I'm fairly confident about is that he'll finish runner-up... I hope Kauto can win (but think the favourite will win). Kauto I suppose is more likely to be third or fourth. CC and Somersby would probably need something to go wrong. I like Golan Way, but the same applies to him.
 
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There's a horse that has the best overall form, there's a horse that has the best recent form, there's a horse that has a history of producing the goods in this race again, and again and again. He is of course Kauto Star

Beware the assumption that he needs to be fresh based on one poor effort at Punchestown last season in the first week of May, much later than the horse usually races. Is there not a possibility that for some reason he just wasn't right last year, hence his lethargic Down Royal win, and the fact he bled in the King George.

I like Captain Chris, but he's hardly hard an ideal prep, yes he'll probably improve for the longer trip, but he's got about a stone to find hasn't he? He may well, and though they aren't open to improvement like he is, DIamond Harry and Somersby have better form as it stands.

If Kauto Star jumps like he did at Haydock, he'll get Long Run at it a long way out because it will force the latter into niggly mistakes, and if he sustains the gallop that he did at Haydock, he'll test his stablemate's stamina to breaking point.
 
Henrietta Knights King George runners

Best Mate
2001 – 2nd
2002 – won

Edredon Bleu
2000 – 6th
2003 – won

Racing Demon
2006 – 3rd
2007 – 4th
2009 – P/U

Somersby
2011 - ?

I'll take a chance on Somersby e/way at 14/1 or bigger, I think this horse wants 3m now - unbeaten in two races at the track

Plus a straight tricast

1st Long Run - Evs
2nd Kauto Star - 7/2
3rd Somersby - 16/1

tricast £55 ;)
 
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I fancy Somersby to outstay Master Minded.

In their recent races where they have opposed eachother, it has seemed to me that Somersby has been wanting further, and gains on Master Minded with every stride the pair take.

I think it could possibly end up -

Long Run
Kauto Star
Somersby.

Golan Way is interesting, but it's a step up in class/company for him.

Diamond Harry's first ever race on a right handed track, not saying it would make any difference at all, but it is a statistic none the less.
 
Golan Way loves it right handed and must be open to any amount of improvement over fences. The e/w return would be a touch. If a few of these 'bounce' anything could happen in terms of what makes the frame.:)
 
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Are people still backing Sommersby?

I will offer a bottle of Sainsburys Bucks Fizz to anyone on here that has backed him if he places.
 
It's cut up a little as many thought it might, but only Planet of Sound missing of any real note.

You can find positives and negatives for all of the 8 runners which adds to the intrigue of the race.

Captain Chris - would have made a winning reappearance last time but for unseating, but that was over 2m 1 1/2f, looks likely to stay the longer trip but there were doubts about his well being not too long ago. 6/10

Diamond Harry - his comeback was inconclusive for me with the added worry of him missing his original target after injury. 4/10

Golan Way - may have been a fortunate winner of his last start and Royal Charm did nothing for that form next time, may just be making up the dead 8 for punters. 3/10

Kauto Star - what can you say, a true Star in this race 4 times already and has seemed to put in smoother performances here than anywhere else, bar last year. My doubts would surround the way they seemed to prime him for the last day and whilst this is obviously no afterthought, will he repeat that form or better it, we'll find out. Form of the Nicholls horses could be better? 7/10

Long Run - imperious in this last year and confirmed that with a Gold Cup victory at Cheltenham. Beaten by KS last time and there's conflicting reports about his fitness level that day. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and think he's the one to beat if he improves as much from that as from his first run last year. 9/10

Master Minded - I'm a little confused that they're running both MM & KS, MM had this as a target and beat Somersby last time out over 2m 3f. Has won over 2m 4f but no further, this will be his first attempt at 3m, I'm not convinced he'll stay, I don't see he will improve for the step up like his rival the last day might.... 6/10

Nacarat - Runs 3m at Kempton well enough and if those of questionable stamina don't get home he may nick another 4th in this race, that would be the limit of my expectations for him. 4/10

Somersby - disappointed last time when he had an opportunity to shine, has many critics for his large number of places rather than wins, but more often than not he has finished behind good horses - Master Minded being a frequent conqueror! Has only finished out of the first 4 once in his life and that in a race a Cheltenham last year that he ran in due to his owners health. I do not believe the step up in trip will bring enough improvement for him to beat an on-song Long Run, but for all that his consistent places have brought him critics, I don't see him out of the first 4. The doubts about the others I have give me enough encouragement to back him e/w, still around 14/1, with great hope and without Long Run e/w at 7/1 (current price, has been 14/1) looks like Christmas... wait a minute.... 8/10
 
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