The King George

The Diane form is miles clear of the Derby form from Epsom and the Curragh. This suggests Treve should be shorter for Longchamp than Novellist.
 
Euronymous said:
The Diane form is miles clear of the Derby form from Epsom and the Curragh. This suggests Treve should be shorter for Longchamp than Novellist.
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but what if Trading Leather has run his best race today..particularly with the stronger pace suiting

you are assuming that a progressive 3yo doesn't improve each time it runs
 
Uncomplicated nice winner. I cant simply write off the beaten horses as rubbish either and fail to see why there is any reason why he shouldn't run well in the arc.

Didn't his sire improve steadily throughout his career too?
 
EC1 said:
cirrus was not fit says connections
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I struggle to believe that, why wouldn't they get him fit for a race like the KG he's not eligible for the arc so there not many races he can go for that have bigger purses/prestige than the KG.

I think they mean he has not got over his injuries of last season and he's probably not likely to either
 
Pretty certain the ferocious pace made it a muscle-screaming test of stamina, and distances beaten would be exaggerated much as they are on soft/hvy ground.
Clearly, the winner is a strong stayer (undefeated at gp1 level on softer ground,too), but I wouldn't be sure the form's as strong as it appeared, or that the Arc would be the ideal race for him..

fwiw, CDA might not have stayed & it may be premature to write him off completely.
 
EC1 said:
cirrus was not fit says connections
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maybe he's started to regress. always thought he was a 10f horse anyway. today's searing pace made life difficult for him over 12f.

be interesting if he went to york for the juddmonte and was a tasty price based on his last two runs, but there are question marks over him now at the grand age of 7.

the winner was very impressive today but it pays to look at the bigger picture to see that pastorious bettered him in the german derby and he was all out to beat dunaden by 1.5 lengths. hard to be buy into him too much just yet.

worthy of being amongst the main players in the arc market though, shaping up to be some race.
 
Speaking generally, I think one of the biggest weakness of a punters post-race analysis as a whole is being clouded too much by pre-race expectation.
 
reet hard said:
Pretty certain the ferocious pace made it a muscle-screaming test of stamina, and distances beaten would be exaggerated much as they are on soft/hvy ground.
Clearly, the winner is a strong stayer (undefeated at gp1 level on softer ground,too), but I wouldn't be sure the form's as strong as it appeared, or that the Arc would be the ideal race for him..

fwiw, CDA might not have stayed & it may be premature to write him off completely.
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But second and third werent exactly folding to my eyes. I dont think he simply outstayed them

why wouldnt a straightforward strong galloper who lasts out be ideal for the arc? sounds about right to me
 
davidjohnson said:
Speaking generally, I think one of the biggest weakness of a punters post-race analysis as a whole is being clouded too much by pre-race expectation.
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judging horses's as if they never improve to back up a past view seems flawed as well...does anyone not think the winner showed his best ever form today?
 
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according to one of the jocks the early pace wasn't fast enough...i think they went a good even pace..it certainly didn't collapse or the time would have been damaged
 
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Winner must be an improving horse still. This was his first attempt on ground this quick and boy had Johnny a job pulling him up! He has a great attitude like Danedream before him.
Trading Leather pulled too much yet stayed on well so is no back number.
Cirrus as he gets older probably takes more races to get fit and maybe felt the ground but owes nobody anything.
Between winner, Al Kazeem, Treve and a few more Arc could be spectacular depending on ground of course, but big names are all versatile.
Credit to owner who has the family 3 generations and knows "The Tesio factor ".
Just gutted I had no bet !
 
clivex said:
But second and third werent exactly folding to my eyes. I dont think he simply outstayed them

why wouldnt a straightforward strong galloper who lasts out be ideal for the arc? sounds about right to me
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Haven't seen the sectionals yet, but I'd suspect all (bar possibly the winner) were slowing down.
Longchamp wouldn't be as stiff as Ascot, nor will the pace have them strung out single file with a mile to travel.
Novellist's clearly a good horse, just doubt he's as good as he was made to appear today.
 
Maybe reet but sometimes these things can be overanalysed with assumptions of significantly different outcomes. he just looked a class apart from horses with whom connections seem pretty happy with too judging by post race comments (bar the fav). the sense is that hes taken a leap forward today. To me its just a question of how much

Agree with edgt. the attitude is terrific and in a tough rough race like the arc, that has to be a plus

And another cursory look at Mansuns offspring... they do seem to race strongly later into their careers. Happy to be corrected
 
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davidjohnson said:
Speaking generally, I think one of the biggest weakness of a punters post-race analysis as a whole is being clouded too much by pre-race expectation.
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The other side of the coin being that flat acceptance of the form, without keying in previous profiles, often leads to inflated ratings, eh DJ? :)
 
Despite breaking the track record I wouldn't be getting carried away by the form of this race.

Trading Leather had won a listed race before stepping up to Grade 1 when winning the Irish Derby. The jury is still out on that form and Cirrus Des Aigles ran like he was 6 canters short of a gallop and Hillstar according to Stoutey is to be dropped in class.

Time will tell but I doubt if he'll turn out to be some sort of superstar and I'd be wary of backing him for the likes of the Arc
 
Tanlic said:
Despite breaking the track record I wouldn't be getting carried away by the form of this race.

Trading Leather had won a listed race before stepping up to Grade 1 when winning the Irish Derby. The jury is still out on that form and Cirrus Des Aigles ran like he was 6 canters short of a gallop and Hillstar according to Stoutey is to be dropped in class.

Time will tell but I doubt if he'll turn out to be some sort of superstar and I'd be wary of backing him for the likes of the Arc
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Tanlic, You've misread Stoutes quote

"I'm delighted with him," Stoute said of Sir Evelyn de Rothschild's King Edward VII Stakes winner.

"I don't think we'll be dropping him in class now. It was a good solid effort and he is still going the right way."
 
Tanlic said:
Despite breaking the track record I wouldn't be getting carried away by the form of this race.

Trading Leather had won a listed race before stepping up to Grade 1 when winning the Irish Derby. The jury is still out on that form and Cirrus Des Aigles ran like he was 6 canters short of a gallop and Hillstar according to Stoutey is to be dropped in class.

Time will tell but I doubt if he'll turn out to be some sort of superstar and I'd be wary of backing him for the likes of the Arc
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the track record is irrelevant though Tanlic without comparing the time to the others on the card...other records were broke/nearly broke too...when compared with other times on the card Novellist comes out as a very good horse on the clock

The fact that Trading Leather won a listed then a G1 isn't a negative...it tells you the horse is a big improver.

Reet..i've timed the last 3f at 36.4..which gives a finishing % of 99.4%...i'm not sure what the par is here..i'll look at a few other ones for comparison
 
2010 (Harbinger) = 98.1%..Leader time/winner time..3f
2012 (Danedream) = 100.8%...Leader time/winner time..3f
2013 (Novellist) = 99.3%...Leader time/winner time..3f

just comparing these two races shows both were properly run and that Harbinger was slowing more than Novellist.

Edited as completely fooked up
 
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just read Simon's piece..good read as usual...cheers Gus

the final time speed figure i got for Novellist is 135

so we'll see how that compares to Timeform's tomorrow

most people will think its way over the top..maybe it is..but it looks genuine to me..but i have been wrong many times;)

what figure did you get for him Gus?
 
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