The King George

its possible the round course is faster when the going is fast..straight watered but not far side etc...that could explain the large figure for Novellist

when Harbinger won he was 50lb faster than 3yo Yashid an 80 something horse over same distance...those two races were considerably faster than the straight course races that day...in fact the round course was Good to firm then just based on Yashids race against Good in the straight...Yashids race was decently run at 100.7%

we don't have a comparison yesterday as the KG is the only race on the round course truly run as Big Thunder's race was steadily run
 
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EC1 said:
what figure did you get for him Gus?
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I've filed it under "too difficult" - only one other race on the round course. If that other race was truly-run, you could even justify a higher figure than 135 for Novellist but that would give figures for the beaten horses that I'd struggle to accept. I suspect it's a genuinely high number, though, and not simply attributable to the conditions.

Sorry for the cop-out.
 
gus said:
I've filed it under "too difficult" - only one other race on the round course. If that other race was truly-run, you could even justify a higher figure than 135 for Novellist but that would give figures for the beaten horses that I'd struggle to accept. I suspect it's a genuinely high number, though, and not simply attributable to the conditions.

Sorry for the cop-out.
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no you can't really use big thunders race.. early pace not enough..i got that race 20lb shy of what it should be

what i am looking at is that on Friday..both courses gave the same going allowance...did you get that as well?...so i can't see why on saturday they should be different to each other..the ground was faster all over on Saturday by some way..i don't think watering occured after racing Friday as rain was forecast for saturday

so on Saturday it seems fair to assume that both courses would race similarily as both had same sun on them..which gives us a couple of good marker races on the straight course
 
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The straight course at Ascot has always been less susceptible to extremes of ground than the round, since it was relaid about 8 years ago.
 
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the way Trading has been campaigned by Bolger and after pulling its is very unllikely he hit 120

Novellist has been improving steadily in my figures and logic says he can have improve a little more but no reason for sudden improvement



Universal rating can not be used as he and Hamdams horse went too fast


Hillstar is lightly raced but Royal Ascot form is douvious coming there being beaten in a hcp in a low mark


The highest I can go at the moment for the winner is 126/127


in similar range of figures can be in October
Kizuna
Orfevre
Treve
Al Kazeem
Flinstshire
 
EC1 said:
the straight has been faster than the round since that time..but when there is no watering involved both seem to ride similar on fast ground.
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In my experience, the ground both softens and dries out less quickly on newly laid straight courses (such as Ascot & Doncaster) than it does on the original round course.
 
If the going/conditions allowance was the same on the round track as on the straight track - and it probably was, I think - then my figure for Novellist's time on Saturday was 122. To put it any higher would give a figure for Princess Noor that would look on the big side.
 
Didn't Galician break the track record as well? Or was it Princess Noor... Anyway, my initial reaction was it was a top class performance from Noveliist but on reflection I'm not convinced its quite as good as some seem to believe. I still think Orfevre wil be the best horse in the race come Arc day.
 
I think the performance of the weekend was Verrazano in the Haskell. I'm not that much of a fan of Yankee racing but he won the race European style. In contrast to the King George they only went a sedate pace and he just motored clear in the straight. Far harder to do after such a relatively slow gallop.
 
not sure if this has been posted already but CDA's form in races where the word Firm appears in the going now reads:

Asc 12GF 4/8 RPR113
Sha 10GF 5/10 RPR117
Tok 12Fm 9/18 RPR118

for comparison (since 2010)
on Gd/GS 12732122112
on S/Hy 3121111125
 
simmo said:
not sure if this has been posted already but CDA's form in races where the word Firm appears in the going now reads:

Asc 12GF 4/8 RPR113
Sha 10GF 5/10 RPR117
Tok 12Fm 9/18 RPR118

for comparison (since 2010)
on Gd/GS 12732122112
on S/Hy 3121111125
Click to expand...

this is what confuses me...last year when he met Frankel everyone said he was the best in the world on that surface...and yet when he runs below par on very fast going connections say he wasn't fit rather than saying the ground was too fast...its fair to say that on Saturday he met some of the fastest ground he has encountered
 
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He had several things against him on Saturday. The ground and the trip were faster and further than he'd ideally like.

It might also be that he is still recovering from last season's ligament injury and as he gets older it might require more to get him fit. Or maybe he is regressing, as Bar suggests.

I wouldn't write him off until he's had a chance to run 10f on slower ground, and I'd be interested in backing him to do so if the price is right.
 
If you look at this form over the past several seasons there are plenty of reasons to have expected the results as they happened.

He usually gets beaten on his first run of the year, often by horses that you wouldn't expect him to get beaten by (I think one of them was at 1/20 or something ridiculous)

He has never run well on firm ground.

In hindsight, he has been far too short for his last 2 races.

Hopefully there will be an over-reaction next time he runs and we can get some juicier prices.
 
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