The Leger

It has to be said that Kite Wood is the highest rated going into the race, but even if he had perfect going there are grounds for opposing him.

I've done so with Changingoftheguard (before AOA was a non-runner) against the proven Group-class performers. It's a big step up to Group 1 level, but he is rated the equivalent of AOA and has better stamina aptitude than anything in the race apart from his own stablemate VJ the other Montjeu (who will presumably pace make).
 
gus said:
What does this mean?
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I mean not running over the longer distance prior to running in the classic. For example, I view running in a 1m4 Derby trial prior to the Derby as a negative. I think there is some credence in the theory that horses need to be 'conditioned' to running over a longer trip, by running over shorter trips beforehand.
 
Hamm said:
I mean not running over the longer distance prior to running in the classic. For example, I view running in a 1m4 Derby trial prior to the Derby as a negative. I think there is some credence in the theory that horses need to be 'conditioned' to running over a longer trip, by running over shorter trips beforehand.
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I would disagree with this theory. The success of the Chester Vase/Lingfield Trial, the Derby, Prix Niel as precursors to victory in the Derby, Irish Derby and Arc respectively is an immediate and compelling argument against it.

On the other hand, I do agree that horses running over further than 1m4f do not do well in the St Leger. I would suggest that they ran, and ran well in such races because they are slow old boats. Winners of the Leger tend to have the gears to perform to a high (although not usually very high) level at 1m4f. This is, I believe, the reason for this trend.
 
Kite Wood - Hated the ground at Newbury was lugging left as if he was feeling something so chances are he will feel it tomorrow

COTG - Im pretty sure most of the Ebor form is cack bar nanton today. A handicap to Group 1 how many do win???

Father Time - Well and truly put in his place by MC in Voltigeur when ground was used as an excuse. Going to be quicker tomorrow how does the form get turned around?

Monitor Closely - Potentially unexposed yet wont know until tomorrow if Voltgeur run was too good to be true. Will love the ground unlike most of these.

Mourayan - Doubt he will run cant see Oxx wanting him to go on firm, looks an out and out stayer so not going to get the test he wants tomorrow

Mastery - Decent enough form and will like the ground probably should be shorter. However again how does he turn form with MC

Above Average - He hardly is

Von Jawlekryrgvfhoidood (or whatever it is) - Pacemaking duties.
 
simmo said:
I would disagree with this theory. The success of the Chester Vase/Lingfield Trial, the Derby, Prix Niel as precursors to victory in the Derby, Irish Derby and Arc respectively is an immediate and compelling argument against it.

On the other hand, I do agree that horses running over further than 1m4f do not do well in the St Leger. I would suggest that they ran, and ran well in such races because they are slow old boats. Winners of the Leger tend to have the gears to perform to a high (although not usually very high) level at 1m4f. This is, I believe, the reason for this trend.
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How many Derby winners have come from the Chester Vase and Lingfield Derby trial in recent years?

The Arc is a different case, as the horses have nearly always run over the trip of the main race by that point (ie, in a Derby).
 
I think the thing about them stepping up in trip being seen as a positive is the idea that they had obvious shown enough class and speed to be kept to shorter distances earlier in the year where as to be racing over 1m6f plus from Royal Ascot time onwards suggests the 3 year old in question (generally) probably lacks that bit of class.

So those stepping up in trip are probably just the better class three year olds full stop rather than it being any sort of conditioning that is in their benefit.
 
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In the last 21 runnings of the Leger, based on the starting prices (adjusted for overround), you would expect the following:

Wins by horses who have run further than 12f prior to the race: 7
Wins by horses who have not run further than 12f prior to the race: 14

In practice, the actual result has been:

Wins by horses who have run further than 12f prior to the race: 2
Wins by horses who have not run further than 12f prior to the race: 19

There's only ~1% chance of this happening by chance, so clearly there's some effect.

Nick Mordin has mentioned it a number of times. I think one of his theories is that class horses win the Leger, and class horses are either kept to more lucrative races at 12f or shorter (Derbys, King George) or the traditional 12f Leger preps (Gordon Stakes, Great Voltigeur etc.)
 
Galileo said:
I think the thing about them stepping up in trip being seen as a positive is the idea that they had obvious shown enough class and speed to be kept to shorter distances earlier in the year where as to be racing over 1m6f plus from Royal Ascot time onwards suggests the 3 year old in question (generally) probably lacks that bit of class.

So those stepping up in trip are probably just the better class three year olds full stop rather than it being any sort of condition that is in their benefit.
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Snap!
 
Also there's obviously less chance of a horse improving for a step up in trip in the Leger if he's already been tried at it!
 
I broadly agree. While it's always good to know a horse can stay the trip, I reckon most of those that have tried have done so because they'd otherwise struggle at shorter against the best. It tends to only take one of those better-at-shorter horses to maintain its level at the Leger trip to win it.

Having said that, I do think Changingoftheguard's form at the distance will mean something will have to improve for the step up to beat it. Then again, I'm saying that without having 'done' the race.
 
If you follow that trend, Mastery, Kite Wood, Changingoftheguard and Von Jawalensky would be ruled out.

That leaves Above Average, Father Time, Monitor Closely and Mourayan as horse fitting this trend.

I think that Mourayan is the pick of these " trend fitters" but this could be a year where one of those that has run over 13f + previously will come on top.

Changingoftheguard to out kick Mourayan and Mastery.
 
Well, I got a wee bit of a surprise when I went through the form tonight.

Kite Wood tops the ratings and, while I have some reservations about the Newbury form (slow time, some runners failing to run to form etc), this one seems on the up.

Mourayan's Irish Derby form is OK and that was a G1 but both these have been the subject of negative noises as far as the ground is concerned.

I'l probably stick with Kite Wood, though. Dettori reported he was wasn't letting himself down on the fast ground at Newbury but it still may be the best form.

I don't set too much store by the idea of COTG moving up from a 'handicap'. The Ebor isn't just any 'handicap'. It's the closest we can get to a Melbourne Cup.
 
I've got a nap bet in this..Monitor Closely

He hasn't been tried at further than 12f..is it 68 horses have run over further than 12f and all been beat?..N Mordins stat

on tenuous form lines he has the beating of Kite Wood..and had the beating of Age Of Aquarius

using ABOVE AVERAGE he has 5 lengths in hand of KW
using ALWAARY he had 10 lengths in hand of withdrawn AOA

he won really well last time ...Juke Box Jury franked that form...and looks the one for this to me.

can't believe he is 5.3 on betfair tbh
 
that last run of Mourayan puts me off a bit Gareth..although the trip here will suit better ..he isn't a very winning type of animal either..should really have taken that last race to be a contender here imo
 
Nice ride Berry. What a useless bag of wank.

Why didn't Oxx insist the only good jockey he has went to the bigger race.
 
Absolutely fucking atrocious Euro, truly truly horrendous.

GP De Paris form doesn't look so poor now...
 
Everyone goes on about what a shrewdy Oxx is, then why not put a proper jockey up when Kinane wants to stay at home. Did that tosser win his licence in a raffle?
 
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