The Long Shot Thread

No worries. The way things are going for me it probably just didn't register!

Chuffed for you, though. Keep 'em coming.

('Cos I can't be arsed looking through midweek dross :lol:)
 
Newbury 2.40 Idilico 20/1 e/way 3 places sportsbook - 16/1 4 places - There are form lines with 3 of the top four in the betting that suggest the selection should be competitive and go close.

Thurles 2.20 My Galway Girl 150/1 - I have taken 60/1 5 places sportsbook for a minimum punt - she last ran in August in a race that was run in a very fast time. She travelled well through the race but was eased when any chance had gone but did have to quicken up again when challenged for 8th place suggesting there was more in the locker and the distance beaten was misleading. The winner went on to win the mares novice at the festival. Todays race has a look about it that any of the field could place, I am just hoping my selection has improved enough to be competitive.
 
Nice one Chef.

Irish Lincoln.
Some decent prices on my 4 but only 1 qualifies.
TONY THE GENT 20/1.
On his form against Marshall Jennings last year he must have a chance with his 10lb claimer.my one worry is its draw.
 
Outsider said:
Irish Lincoln.
...

TONY THE GENT 20/1.
On his form against Marshall Jennings last year he must have a chance with his 10lb claimer.my one worry is its draw.
Click to expand...

The claimer would be a serious worry for me.

In the same race I've taken 33/1 Honor Oak ew 6pl but PP are limiting me again :confused:
 
I'll copy this to the National thread too:

Grand National - Bless The Wings ew 5pl nrnb/bog 150/1 (B365) - the stats say a 14yo can't win the race but they probably said last year a 13yo couldn't win either. Now, the eagle-eyed out there will have spotted that BTW did not win the race last year...

However. It was a very gallant third, holding off the Gold Cup third, 8yo Anibale Fly.

On my handicapping for this race, a pound equates to two lengths. The turnaround in ratings this season means:

Tiger Roll should be pulled back 18 lengths
Pleasant Company by 14 lengths
Anibale Fly by 10 lengths.

Bless The Wings' age appears to have been allowed for in that he should be in the same place as last year off the same mark. It looks like the handicapper is assuming he doesn't need to adjust its rating to pull it back, that age will do it. Maybe it will.

Tiger Roll looks a better horse again this year but on my figures he was only very marginally better in the X-C race, nowhere near the big rise the handicapper has given him (which won't apply in this race - it just means to me he won't be as well in as the ratings suggest although I don't know exactly how much he had in reserve the other day).

Tiger Roll may have been stopping near the finish last year. The TV camera angle made it look like Pleasant Company was finishing but I'm not noticing a discernible difference in the distance back to BTW from the Elbow to the line.

Anibale Fly is a better horse this year but he's already rated 5lbs higher so will he finish any further forward?

BTW should probably be in the 25-50/1 range max and it might attract sentimental support on the day from people who back regular finishers in the race and the TV will highlight its run last year. I'd think about laying it off within that range.

One I slagged off earlier is Blaklion but he's now much better handicapped than I'd thought. I'll write a case for him in due course.
 
Outsider said:
Nice one Chef.

Irish Lincoln.
Some decent prices on my 4 but only 1 qualifies.
TONY THE GENT 20/1.
On his form against Marshall Jennings last year he must have a chance with his 10lb claimer.my one worry is its draw.
Click to expand...

6th skynet paid 6 places but unfortunately I didnt back it with them,doh
 
Desert Orchid said:
TIn the same race I've taken 33/1 Honor Oak ew 6pl but PP are limiting me again :confused:
Click to expand...

I might try and watch this race again but the grainy small pictures on the split screen to me made it look like the jockey on Honor Oak (despite being backed in to 14/1) was happy to let the mare be squeezed out of contention as the race was warming up and allowed to coast home after that.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I might try and watch this race again but the grainy small pictures on the split screen to me made it look like the jockey on Honor Oak (despite being backed in to 14/1) was happy to let the mare be squeezed out of contention as the race was warming up and allowed to coast home after that.
Click to expand...

Did you manage to see a replay Des,I tried on sporting life but it was still split screen and a total blur.
 
Yes. Same situation. Tried RTV and SL sites, same split screen and poor pictures. I suppose I'll need to give the jockey the benefit of the doubt and assume the horse just didn't see out the race.
 
Football tonight France 5-0 Iceland 22.0


Tomorrow Clonmel 2.20 Take A Punt 16/1 - trying to get 21.0 hoping to get 21.0 or better on the machine.
 
Great pick the other day chef 50/1, don't expect that will be bettered in the near future.

Kayf Tiger 50/1 and John Biscuit 33/1 2.00 Hereford, really wouldn't expect either to win but neither should be twice, 3 times the price of a lot of the other no hopers and may run on into a place.
 
4.20 Market Rasen
Wynford runs here off only 2lb higher than when winning a better race over C&D in June. It’s a concern that his last run was only 11 days ago (PU on heavy ground at Uttoxeter) but could be worth a go at 33/1 with Powers (I’m being restricted to £3 unfortunately)


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viking said:
4.20 Market Rasen
Wynford runs here off only 2lb higher than when winning a better race over C&D in June. It’s a concern that his last run was only 11 days ago (PU on heavy ground at Uttoxeter) but could be worth a go at 33/1 with Powers (I’m being restricted to £3 unfortunately)


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Click to expand...

Unlucky there viking. I hope you covered 3 places.

Three I have a glimmer of hope for today and have only done £1 e/way on each.
Warwick
2.40 Mickyblueeyes 33/1 4 places as extra place offer on sportsbook.
4.20 Master Sunrise 20/1
Newcastle
4.10 Emirat De Catana 66/1
 
swedish chef said:
Unlucky there viking. I hope you covered 3 places.

Three I have a glimmer of hope for today and have only done £1 e/way on each.
Warwick
2.40 Mickyblueeyes 33/1 4 places as extra place offer on sportsbook.
4.20 Master Sunrise 20/1
Newcastle
4.10 Emirat De Catana 66/1
Click to expand...

Thanks chef. I couldn’t find any books I have an account with going 3 places. Only had a small win bet so no real harm done. The horse ran OK but never looked like winning IMO. Maybe one to follow in the summer


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In the Lincoln tomorrow surely CHATEZ is overpriced at 40/1.
I've just watched a replay of last years spring mile on sporting life and there was no colours.i spotted a horse going well and basically you could call the winner from 2 out.it was Chatez.
Up 3lb for that but an extra 3 last year wouldnt have stopped him.
Ran about half a second slower than the Lincoln winner but carried 8lb more.
It will do for me.
 
Copied from the Lincoln thread:

My first (but not necessarily main) bet in the Lincoln is Great Prospector (40/1). He took in the Dewhurst as a juvenile and started his 3yo season off 106 but a moderate year has seen him drop to 97. Fahey has two declared from three likely to make the cut and I wonder if Gabrial was redirected to the Mile to make way for this fellow. Paul Hanagan takes the ride so that's hardly a negative.

PS - in for a penny... I've taken the double with Noble Endeavor. As Barry Norman impersonators would say, "...Aaand why not?!"
 
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A couple more in the Lincoln which, on my figures, shouldn't be as big as they are:

Ventura Knight 40/1 6pl
Breden 66/1 7pl
 
Chatez a NR,pity. So I'm going for WAARIZ 40/1 omeara has an excellent record in this race,a winner,2-2nds a 3rd and 4th in the last 4 yrs.
Also runs Humbert.but 40s looks good.also done it at 18s 9 places.
 
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