The Long Shot Thread

[MINELLA ROCCO 40/1 grand national.
The going may not be ideal but 40/1 looks big for a horse that has beaten Native River twice,once in the national hunt chase and finished in front of him in the gold cup when second to Sizing John.
His form isnt brilliant,but that's the only way to get your mark down and from a high of 166 hes now down to 152 and Carries 11-1.jonjo is a trainer that can lay one out and with JP as the owner it's possible that this as been a 2 yr plan.
I've also got 65 on betfair.
 
I'm need to add a second bet in the Topham.

Woods Well has a very interesting profile. I have him in my notes as a plot horse back at two and a half miles. If you look at his profile you'll see he has a particularly good win and place record when dropped back to the intermediate trip. To my eye he's upped in trip, often running against a clutch of Elliott/Gigi horses to manage his mark. Presumably sooner or later they would want to take aim at a big pot and this race fits the bill perfectly. The fact that they've seen fit to travel him seals the deal that he's been targeted at this for me.

25/1 ew certainly underrates his ability at the trip and I've had a good go at him each way.
 
Outsider said:
[MINELLA ROCCO 40/1 grand national.
The going may not be ideal but 40/1 looks big for a horse that has beaten Native River twice,once in the national hunt chase and finished in front of him in the gold cup when second to Sizing John.
His form isnt brilliant,but that's the only way to get your mark down and from a high of 166 hes now down to 152 and Carries 11-1.jonjo is a trainer that can lay one out and with JP as the owner it's possible that this as been a 2 yr plan.
I've also got 65 on betfair.
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Alas I think the ground will have gone against him, one to keep an eye out for on better ground, maybe Scottish National.
 
Brecon Hill in the 1.45 is also priced wrong at 33/1. Novices have an excellent record in the race, and because of his unfashionable trainer this one has been overlooked.

His form behind Brewinupastorm is standout and, although he hasn't raced beyond two miles so far, he's out of a Kalanisi mare so he will appreciate it, as he will the soft ground. A mark of 131 appeals too for an unexposed horse with a good reason to expect improvement.
 
Dan Skelton to Gordon Elliott with no form and wins easy as you like? Sometimes I think stuff the form and just think like a plot trainer for these big handicaps.
 
Maruco said:
Brecon Hill in the 1.45 is also priced wrong at 33/1. Novices have an excellent record in the race, and because of his unfashionable trainer this one has been overlooked.

His form behind Brewinupastorm is standout and, although he hasn't raced beyond two miles so far, he's out of a Kalanisi mare so he will appreciate it, as he will the soft ground. A mark of 131 appeals too for an unexposed horse with a good reason to expect improvement.
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Something amiss I guess. Back-peddling after a mile and pulled up.
 
Yes, I took extra time yesterday to check Three Musketeers out when I noticed Elliott had taken it over but it was only very recently that he did, not enough time to transform the horse, or so I thought.

Stinks, to be honest, especially considering the RP site says it went to Elliott on 29 March and in his post-race interview Elliott said he's had it "a few months".

Disappointing from Kobrouk but maybe it bled or something after travelling very strongly. I wonder if it will go for the same races later this month that Soul Emotion (same owners) took in last year.
 
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BET365 EXTRA PLACE MAARKET.

I cant resist having a go.some good value.

noble endeavour 100/1 2 places 28/1 10 places
Minella Rocco 100/1 2 places 28/1 10 places
Folsom blues 35/1 10 places
Bless the wings 75/1 10 places

And I got half my stake back.nice bet 365.
 
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Maruco said:
Fact Of The Matter 50/1 in the Topham. You want something prominent in the race, that can hold its position and will still be running on at the end over two miles five.

He's been doing most of his racing over 3 miles plus more recently (was good over the intermediate trip though), including over the cross country fences at Cheltenham, but for me is a bit too keen over an extended trip and runs out of gas in the best company. He'll relish this today, and whilst he might get nabbed by something with a it more toe, I think he'll go close. I think he's feasibly handicapped, carries 10st 4lb as opposed to level weights against the likes of Tiger Roll, and often Cheltenham's x-county fences relate well over the National fences.

This is his second run after a wind op which is often a positive, and he's unconsidered and a big rick at 50/1.
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I see my expertise is moving markets as usual. Out to 66/1! :blink:

Money for Woods Well though.
 
Don Poli, 150/1.

Absolutely outrageous odds, for a ten year old, who was placing in Gold Cups 2 years ago. He’s had a sighter over these fences in November, and although pulled up, I saw enough to be satisfied. (First run back from injury)
The National had been touted for this horse ever since his RSA win, stays longer than your mother in law. Got Patrick Mullins on board, who’ll know him from his time at Willies yard.

This is more of a sentimental long shot for me. But if Don Poli does have one dance left at this game, Elliot would be the man to find it, and why not for the race many think he would fare well in not 2 years ago.
 
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The more I look the more the more confused I get.Maxbet put up VALSEUR LIDO up on the other thread and although I dont like backing horses that have been beaten in the race before,this looks to have a decent chance for an outsider.
Last year it carried 11-7 on heavy going and this time has 10-6 and the ground drying out.80/1 looks decent
 
Chepstow
2.15 Goldrapper 33/1
4.05 Never Equalled 20/1
6.05 Gastara 33/1

Newcastle
2.05 Gris De Pron 22/1

Aintree
3.40 Clyne 80/1
4.20 Theatre Territory 21.0
 
Outsider said:
The more I look the more the more confused I get.Maxbet put up VALSEUR LIDO up on the other thread and although I dont like backing horses that have been beaten in the race before,this looks to have a decent chance for an outsider.
Last year it carried 11-7 on heavy going and this time has 10-6 and the ground drying out.80/1 looks decent
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Ahem... 'Scuse me... but I put Valseur Lido up some time before Maxbet :)

I don't have any longshots in the other races today and don't want to embarrass myself any further by listing the other longshots I've backed in the National but there are plenty. At some of the crazy prizes on offer it would be daft no to.

I do believe, though, that Noble endeavor will be my 'Ben Nevis' for this year. I mentioned it elsewhere: when I was in teacher-training I was asked what would win and I told them Ben Nevis was a cert and to put what was left of their grant on it, which some of them did. It was brought down when going well. The following year I was working in Spain but came home for Easter (and to see the race). I'd told my flatmate Miguel about the horse and he gave me something like 1000ptas (about a fiver or so, a fair amount of money back in the day) and said to me to back it for him, and if it won I was to buy him a ghetto-blaster. The grin with which he greeted me on my return complete with the best ghetto-blaster I could buy for about £100 will live me for a long time.

I thought NE was a good thing last year and told everybody again but he didn't make the race due to injury. I hope they haven't forgotten about him.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ahem... 'Scuse me... but I put Valseur Lido up some time before Maxbet :)

I don't have any longshots in the other races today and don't want to embarrass myself any further by listing the other longshots I've backed in the National but there are plenty. At some of the crazy prizes on offer it would be daft no to.

I do believe, though, that Noble endeavor will be my 'Ben Nevis' for this year. I mentioned it elsewhere: when I was in teacher-training I was asked what would win and I told them Ben Nevis was a cert and to put what was left of their grant on it, which some of them did. It was brought down when going well. The following year I was working in Spain but came home for Easter (and to see the race). I'd told my flatmate Miguel about the horse and he gave me something like 1000ptas (about a fiver or so, a fair amount of money back in the day) and said to me to back it for him, and if it won I was to buy him a ghetto-blaster. The grin with which he greeted me on my return complete with the best ghetto-blaster I could buy for about £100 will live me for a long time.

I thought NE was a good thing last year and told everybody again but he didn't make the race due to injury. I hope they haven't forgotten about him.
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I haven't bothered listing the 6 I have backed in the National as they would all come under the longshot thread and most of them have been put up by others already.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ahem... 'Scuse me... but I put Valseur Lido up some time before Maxbet :)

I don't have any longshots in the other races today and don't want to embarrass myself any further by listing the other longshots I've backed in the National but there are plenty. At some of the crazy prizes on offer it would be daft no to.

I do believe, though, that Noble endeavor will be my 'Ben Nevis' for this year. I mentioned it elsewhere: when I was in teacher-training I was asked what would win and I told them Ben Nevis was a cert and to put what was left of their grant on it, which some of them did. It was brought down when going well. The following year I was working in Spain but came home for Easter (and to see the race). I'd told my flatmate Miguel about the horse and he gave me something like 1000ptas (about a fiver or so, a fair amount of money back in the day) and said to me to back it for him, and if it won I was to buy him a ghetto-blaster. The grin with which he greeted me on my return complete with the best ghetto-blaster I could buy for about £100 will live me for a long time.

I thought NE was a good thing last year and told everybody again but he didn't make the race due to injury. I hope they haven't forgotten about him.
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No thoughts that Ben Nevis had a mountain to climb the year he won it Maurice!
 
Nah, I thought he was a cert but there was something poetic about the name, given he was such a small horse.

Anyway... signing off now. Heading out to the brother's for the family party. Looking forward to a great day, seeing the sister and nieces going mental during the race.
 
Scottish National - Cloth Cap 20/1 (if you can still get it) - it looks to me like this one, which even the form book says is on a steep upward curve, has been kept off the track for a few months to preserve a very low mark for this, plus it's still a novice so potentially better again. The form book also complimented it on its jumping. I expect JJON Jr to ride.
 
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Scottish Champion Hurdle - Irish Roe 33/1 - btn 5L in this race last year now 6lb lower - Jockey does have a bad habit of taking this horse wide and losing many lengths in the process but maybe that is the riding Instructions?
 
Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
 
Nebo is an interesting recruit to Tom Hogan's yard, is in great form, looking and working well and could well outrun his odds at Naas Gladness Stakes 4 00 tomorrow.
An ew interest at 33/1 recommended.

Two wild ones ew
Dromod Lad 2.50 Naas
Clifftop Dancer 3.25 Naas

The former ran well for 6 furlongs first time out and runs over six tomorrow.
The latter has some okay form and seems to run well fresh.
More importantly trainer Eddie Harty is in wild form with 12/1, 33/1 winners and a 25/1 placed maiden runner lately.

More sensible folk may prefer Kinch 3.25 , ran well on third start when apprentice ridden and Colin Keane takes over in first handicap start off 66.
 
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