The Next President?

Headstrong said:
agreed Fox is very biased in the other direction, but surely only the already converted watch it??
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Not so sure about that, Headstrong. Fox News ratings-wise would be ahead of CNN (though there's not all that much in it admittedly).

In terms of print media, the most widely-read broadsheet is USA Today, which is a rag (albeit one without any discernible bias).

I would also object to your statement that the media has been biased in Obama's favour. To use one example, it was relatively bland news that Sarah Palin's husband was a member of the anti-American AIP. Can you imagine the furore if Michelle Obama was revealed to have been a member of a black liberation group? It's also fairly well-known that McCain has held a fair few BBQ's at his ranch to cosy up to the media and is certianly not afraid to give reporters the cold shoulder if he feels he's been slighted. That said, certain sections of the media (notably MSNBC) have been notably biased in Obama's favour.

As for Obama's "pig in lipstick" comment, surely Obama has lifted that reference from Gareth's post on the SP Appreciation thread! October Surprise, anyone? :D
 
That said, certain sections of the media (notably MSNBC) have been notably biased in Obama's favour.
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Olbermann and co seem to take the view that if it's ok for Fox to be biased one way, it's ok for them to do it for the other side.

Speaking of Fox, the bits I saw of Obama on Bill O'Reilly's show were surprisingly good. Maybe I just had very low expectations, but it actually seemed like a decent argument compared to O'Reilly's usual cut-their-microphone-and-shout-alot style.
 
Can't stand Olbermann to be honest, Gareth. Shock-jock television and his "Countdown" program is a joke IMO.

Chris Matthews, probably my favourite political journalist in the USA, is also guilty of fawning over Obama.

I didn't see the O'Reilly piece so can't comment. O'Reilly is what he is though and he's not half as bad as Sean Hannity either!
 
sunybay said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJH2n4aFEhA
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Part 1:
Didn't handle the Iran question with any ease. More comfortable on 'the surge', then faded and couldn't handle the question over predicting the surge wouldn't work and then later saying it did. Not nimble enough.

On the question of military aid to Pakistan: "we don't attach enough strings to that aid .... Pakistan is [using it] preparing for war against India," -- whoa, come again?!

Part 2:
Taxes -- muddling presentation. He's outplayed by the interviewer & misses taking his turn at having command when the opportunity arises.

Part 3:
Personal 'associations': didn't dispatch the charges convincingly (make that "at all convincingly") - they were left unresolved.

Part 4: I gave myself a break and skipped it.

Overall: he's a young man, trying to win points in a discussion with his dad. Polite, self-possessed and nice voice, trying hard to be cogent.

President? As promising as Bush the elder, and why anyone took him seriously I don't know. (Let's just skip that son, please. and Reagan. and Ford. and Nixon. and Carter. and Clinton.)

He doesn't seem to be cutting it. His presentation has good points, though.

Right material for President? Uh-uh.
 
Meanwhile, McCain falls into a logical trap set by Whoopi Goldberg on the US equivalent of Loose Women. Funny stuff.
 
A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia makes good reading for Obama. Up 4%, with notable support from women. Kerry States + Iowa (Obama up 12 in the last poll) + Virginia = 272 electoral votes and the presidency.
 
McCain now only ahead by 1% on the latest Gallup national poll, a statistical tie given the margin of error. Rasmussen polling puts Virginia, Ohio, Penn and Colorado in the statistical tie category also. McCain still has a lead in Florida.
 
Will he take the gamble and marshal his resources into Iowa, Colorado, Virginia or go for broke in Florida/Ohio?

Fascinating stuff.
 
Interesting stuff Mrussell. Exposed to direct questioning rather than "YES WE CAN!" speeches he seemspretty green. Wouldnt have expected Clinton (either) to have stumbled like that ? the Pakistan aid answer is particularly awful

I cant help feeling taht the Palin effect will wear thin too. Yes, it was charismatic speech but frankly shes full of nut views. The more you think of her in charge in the event of a Mcain demise....
 
trackside528 said:
Will he take the gamble and marshal his resources into Iowa, Colorado, Virginia or go for broke in Florida/Ohio?

Fascinating stuff.
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It is. The biggest advantage he has is his multiple routes to victory. The disadvantage is the expense and resource allocation required to make them all feasible. Good thing he's still breaking fund-raising records.
 
clivex said:
Interesting stuff Mrussell. Exposed to direct questioning rather than "YES WE CAN!" speeches he seemspretty green.
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He hasn't a patch on Sarah Palin though, Clivex. ;)

He also has the advantage of a far more organized, effective ground operation, Gareth.

If there's one state where the demographics are against him it's surely Flordia. Palin will have strong appeal with conservative leaning "soccer moms" in the suburban areas around the I-95 corridor (where election will be won and lost). Retirees amd Jewish population will also help McCain.
 
He also has the advantage of a far more organized, effective ground operation, Gareth.
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Some of the registration numbers they're claiming are huge. And if there's one thing that's going to make polls look stupid its lots of first-time voters.
 
Couldn't make it up. Regarding AIG; from electoral-vote.com:

This nationalization poses an especially large challenge for John McCain, who is now railing against corporate greed and lack of government regulation of the financial industry. What he doesn't talk much about is how deregulation happened. It was the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that repealed the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act and thus eliminated the depression-era walls between between banking, investment, and insurance that made this crisis possible. Glass-Stegall erected walls between banking, investment management, and insurance, so problems in one sector could not spill over into the others, which is precisely what is happening now. The primary author of that legislation was none other than his economic advisor, former senator Phil Gramm (who thinks the country is in a "mental recession"). McCain fully supported the bill and has a decades-long track record of opposing government regulation of the financial industry. His new-found conversion to being a fan of regulation is going to be a tough sell as Obama is already pointing out that McCain got what he wanted (deregulation) and this is the consequence.
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Gallup: Obama 47 McCain 45 (margin of error: 2%).

Rasmussen: McCain 48 Obama 47 (margin of error: 2%).
 
Obama now up 4 with Gallup; clearing the margin of error in all but the absolute worst case. Rasmussen has them tied (+/- 2%).
 
Gallup: Obama 50% McCain 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 48% McCain 47%

Margin of error both 2% for 95% confidence.
 
McCain has seemed all at sea with the financial stuff. By all accounts, economics is not exactly his strong point. Not necessarily Obama's either, but he has obvious advantages. Could be the pivotal moment of the campaign
 
It'll be interesting to see whether the polls tighten back up as we move away from last week (assuming there's no more to come, of course). The first debate is on Friday night, focussing on foreign policy and national security. It has to be seen as an opportunity for McCain to make some ground back, one he needs to take.
 
With supposedly record numbers using the opportunity to poll early (i.e. right now, as I understand it), will that favour either side? Do either Democrats or Republicans have a record of exercising their civic rights more than the other?

Incidentally, is it still hard for black people to exercise theirs in some states/counties?
If you're poor, having to drive to a polling station can pretty well disenfranchise you ..

Regards
 
Interesting that the Gallup daily poll is tightening up again (Obama 47 McCain 44). It's not because McCain is getting some support back, but that 1 or 2% of the sample are wavering between Obama and "no opinion/neither".
 
I was reading that a recent AP poll found a third of Democrats have a negative view of blacks. I believe it also estimated it was costing Obama 6% in the polls.

Not sure how accurate that figure is or how it was calculated, but anybody thinking Obama is still at an advantage due to his race is well off the mark.
 
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