The Next President?

These things are normally so choeographed as to be pointless. I've got a feeling however that tonight's might be different. I'm predicting an Obama victory, as normally these things end in draws
 
The excitement for me in the debates is not the answers (hardly anything groundbreaking announcements being made!), but knowing that one word (or facial expression) can change the course of the election..
 
Well I was told it was in Oxford, I thought about nipping down there having been slung out the debating society when Musharef came in. Alas no, that's Oxford Mississippi. Oh well, the successful candidate will doubtless appear here soon, but I'll be gone by then. I'll update the woe thread soon, but for legal reasons, can't. It's been hillarious this week :D
 
Mulling over the debate...

- I thought McCain was awful on the economy. After both agreed on the severity of what's happening at the moment, McCain just blathered on endlessly about earmarks. I seriously doubt most Americans could give a damn about earmarks right now. Obama, on the other hand, spoke directly to camera and directly to the middle class.

- McCain was generally superior on foreign policy as you would expect, but came across as condescending and patronising. Obama made his central point - that Iraq was an expensive, dangerous detour compared to the main issue of Afghanistan and bin Laden - effectively.

- McCain's body language was strange. He seemed unable to even look at Obama, muttered "horseshit" a couple of times, and came across as almost insulted to have to share a stage with him. Obama, on the other hand, seemed poised, confident, kept those stammers I mentioned to a minimum and passed the "presidential" test (a test that McCain doesn't really have to undergo).

- There was no clear winner or loser but I think Obama will have been the happier when he woke up today. However, the polls should let on to the real story over the next few days (Rasmussen are today Obama 50% McCain 44% but the vast majority of sampling came pre-debate; Gallup's latest numbers are due out any minute).
 
Gallup go Obama 49 McCain 44. Haven't read the blurb but they use a three-day rolling average so the vast vast majority of that will also be pre-debate.
 
Gallup: Obama 50 McCain 42
Rasmussen: Obama 50 McCain 44

Both polls cover the three days spanning McCain's 'suspension' of his campaign, the fallout from the talks over the bailout, and the first debate.
 
Mccain has made a prat out of himself buzzing around the last few days. Hes acted like a complete pest. If he thinks "leadership" is about running around making lots of noise about something he barely understands then hes not fit for the top job.

Obama has stayed aloof and that is abolsutely correct. Although there will be a slight suspicion that he has siad nothing much because he doesnt know what to say, it is a convincing profile. This is a huge crisis and a considered approach (unlike that of the struggling Paulson) will always rightly convince voters

Palin is, as expected imploding. The choice of a charismatic but lightwieght veep candidate at such a time looks more and more dismal by the day

Why Mccain didnt pick Romney (whos , for all the fuss about Palin, speech at the Rep conference was superb) i have no idea. Must be personal

In fact he should have been the main candidate. He would certainly know his way round the economic situation and as a governor of an important state, has fine credentials

I think this was the week Mccain lost the election. and rightly so
 
There is something about McCain running around calling himself a "maverick" which comes across as a bit of desperation.
 
Does it not reflect badly on the current leader, and the two prospective leaders, that they cannot sway enough of their party to allow a bill go through which all 3 insist is of critical National importance.
 
It does, but as the Dems voted 140-95 for it, and the Republicans 133-65 against it , it looks a hell of a lot worse for the Republicans given that a) Bush is still their president, and b) McCain made such a song and dance about suspending his campaign (he didn't) to get a deal done, claiming he wouldn't debate without a deal (he did) and then attempted to take credit for the deal just hours before the vote went the other way.

As Clive touched on, Obama has to skirt a very narrow line between not getting too close to what's going on in Washington right now whilst at the same time appearing to have a handle and some influence on events.
 
They probably should have kept that issue bubbling away throughout rather than suddenly ressurecting it. Now it will appear spiteful and desperate. Personally i believe the Wright isuue should never have dropped off the agenda, not least for the frightening lack of judgement involved.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/opinion/29krugman.html

Paul Krugman always worth a look on these matters


I think Mccain has blown it. Nothing hurts as much as the economy and any doubts about credibility or leadership in that area more than any other (bar all out war maybe) is fatal
 
Anybody been keeping track of the state markets on Betfair? Very little liquidity yet but could offer a bit of value. Having had a quick glance, McCain looks a bit big at 2.1 in Nevada.

Fascinating debate on Thursday night (I fell asleep halfway through the last one!). Palin looks incredibly ropey in her interviews (the Couric one especially) and could be rattled by Biden. Biden is Biden.
 
The expectations for Palin are so low that simply getting to the rostrum without making a gaffe will be seen as a success. Biden really needs to be careful.
 
New polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania putting Obama well ahead. A little too far ahead to be taken without a deal of scepticism.
 
clivex said:
In fact he should have been the main candidate. He would certainly know his way round the economic situation and as a governor of an important state, has fine credentials

I think this was the week Mccain lost the election. and rightly so
Click to expand...

If it's a man in a crisis who also possesses a sharp intellect, and get things doen approach (albeit it one prone to the odd gaff) they had the ideal candidate. He also happened to be New York Mayor which in terms of its GDP and population is as good as many a state, as well as understanding big finance (which you have to for a City that hosts Wall Street, and was pulled back from bankruptcy). Alright it would be wrong to credit Rudy with this, Ed Koch was the main political saviour (even if in reality it was the teaching unions pension fund that plugged the gap). But he still had to kick start a stagnent economy whilst presiding over budgetary prudence. He was also instrumental in making his name (ironically as a Democrat) at about this time prosecuting organised criminals and white collar criminals

Unfortunately, he was always going to be alien to some elements of his party, had 'too many vowels in his name', and badly miscalculated the momentum issue in the primaries, even though running off the NY platform is difficult enough in the US (though not impossible) given so many other Americans hate them
 
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