The Next President?

We will see The Bradley effect ?

But would it cost say, Colin Powell 6% in the polls if he stood?

Seems like some tenuous stats but one of his weak points is the past links of course. Doubtful Powell would have been caught in one of Wrights sermons...let alone 20 years worth...Same for many other black poiliticians I would guess

The Democrat constintuency that will be very wary is the jewish vote
 
Good piece on The Bradley Effect here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/on-race-based-voting.html

The Rev. Wright stuff simply isn't a factor right now, it's barely been mentioned except when McCain's campaign warned off anyone who wanted to bring up Palin's pastor. Of course it may come up again, but the whole point of the primaries was to get this stuff out in the open so I can't see how re-hashing the whole thing would gain any traction (outside of those who would never vote for Obama anyway) at this point.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Good piece on The Bradley Effect here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/on-race-based-voting.html

The Rev. Wright stuff simply isn't a factor right now, it's barely been mentioned except when McCain's campaign warned off anyone who wanted to bring up Palin's pastor. Of course it may come up again, but the whole point of the primaries was to get this stuff out in the open so I can't see how re-hashing the whole thing would gain any traction (outside of those who would never vote for Obama anyway) at this point.
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Cheers for that, Gareth.

The problem, in terms of demographics, would seem to be that many of those Democrats who do have a negative view of blacks are located in demographically crucial areas, particularly rural Ohio and Pennsylvania, and could potentially end up holding the key to those states.
 
The Rev. Wright stuff simply isn't a factor right now
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Havent two recent interviews (at elast) questioned him about his past associations? Of course its a factor. It will be at the very least, subconciously in peoples minds. Not just the suspicion that he has been one step removed formthe Farrakhan world view, but also the appalling judgement

I reckon they can take the hit on Palins pastor in return for revisiting Wright.
 
Part 3:
Personal 'associations': didn't dispatch the charges convincingly (make that "at all convincingly") - they were left unresolved.
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from mrussels post above and i am sure ive seen simlar elsewhere
 
Wright is barely mentioned there - they spent at least twice as long talking about Bill Ayers. You think Bill O'Reilly wouldn't hammer him on Wright like no other in that interview if he thought there was anything left in the story?
 
clivex said:
Havent two recent interviews (at elast) questioned him about his past associations? Of course its a factor. It will be at the very least, subconciously in peoples minds. Not just the suspicion that he has been one step removed formthe Farrakhan world view, but also the appalling judgement.
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The pastor issue is a dead-duck, clivex, but you refuse to let it lie. You're even resorting to saying it will subconciously affect voting patterns. You continue to try and tie Obama (a Christian) to Farrakhan (a Muslim).

It's cobblers.

It's a non-issue for everyone, except for you.

I look forward to McCain winning the election, and you informing us that it was down to the subconscious overruling the conscious, and rakes of voters determining their Presidential selection on the basis of who preached in Obama's church.

If I was an American, I would find your stance unbelievably condescending.

Best regards etc
Your old mucker
Grass :)
 
Weird. McCain want's to postpone the first debate on Friday night so as to allow all sides to concentrate on a bipartisan solution to the economic crisis.
 
Seems as if he's "suspending" his entire campaign as well until this mess is fixed.

Perhaps the election should be postponed as well to prevent further instability..

*Cue total market melt-down*
 
Can't see it being taken too seriously to be honest.

Though it's an obvious attempt to one-up Obama by appearing above the fray and putting the good of the country first, if Obama can manage to articulate the obvious argument that suspending the entire campaign will only serve to create further instability and panic without actually managing to accomplish anything substantive, it could well back-fire on him in much the same way his attempts to portray Obama as "elitist" seem to be now.

I would hope people will see through such an obvious stunt TBH. It will be interesting to see how Obama reacts. He didn't take the town-hall debate carrot when it was dangled and I can't see him rising to this bait either.
 
Gallup back tied at 46/46. Important note though:

This update covers interviewing conducted Monday through Wednesday, and as such includes one night after McCain's announcement that he was suspending election campaigning and flying to Washington to help seek a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis. A night by night analysis of interviewing results, however, does not suggest that McCain had a dramatically better night against Obama on Wednesday. Instead, the data show that McCain has been doing slightly better for the last three days than he had in the previous week, and with some strong Obama days falling off of the rolling average, the race has moved to its current tied position. This is the first report since Sept. 13-15, in which Obama did not have at least a one percentage point edge.
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American polling is so volatile that in close run contests its near to meaningless. The critical facor of course, because of the college system, is where the votes are, which in many ways makes American elections so much mor einteresting than ours, as there's a much bigger tactical element to get your head around. I suspect we're going to be looking at Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio again. Obama needs to get the last two mentioned to have a chance
 
He can do it without Ohio. He almost certainly needs Pennsylvania, sure, but various combinations of all states that have gone Democratic in the last 4 elections (248 EVs), Iowa (could be in the bag, 7 EVs) and then some combination of Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5) and New Hampshire (4) can get him over the line. Also it looks like Virginia (13) is in play.
 
I suspect we're going to be looking at Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio again. Obama needs to get the last two mentioned to have a chance
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Hilary would have grabbed all three i reckon

Two poor candiates.
 
McCain has deigned to grace his country with his presence at the first debate tonight. It sounds like the subject matter will be changed to accomodate a portion on the economy (t was scheduled to be confined to foreign policy).

Going in, here's a couple of the latest polls:

Gallup: Obama 48 McCain 45
Rasmussen: Obama 50 McCain 45
 
Would it shock you if I said yes? :p

These things tend to be about how the candidates live up to expectations. Given the events of the last few days, it's hard to get a handle on what the expectations actually are. Maybe that was the point.
 
McCain has more to lose tonight as this is his perceived strong point. I wouldn't put it past him to make a blunder though. He is a horrendous debater IMO, which is primarily due to his lack of ability to think on his feet, combined with his temper (though he's learned to keep that in check). The key for Obama is of course to be more clear and concise rather than being so long-winded.
 
Bring it on. Now that McCain has consented of course. His posturing has been poor, but we'll see how this stage maned charade plays out, but I'm struggling to belive he can have been subjected to the usual party briefings?
 
The key for Obama is of course to be more clear and concise rather than being so long-winded.
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He's got to cut down on that half-stammer he tends to do at the start of a sentence while he's getting it right in his head. Someone like Tony Blair masks this beautifully by always prefacing an answer with something like 'What I would say is...', which infuriates me as a piece of language, but allows him that extra second or two to get his thoughts straight while allowing him to remain clear, confident and unhurried.

John McCain has got to not laugh. It's really creepy.
 
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