The Oaks (and beyond)

EC1 said:
Meeznah has won one race from 5 starts ...a very poor maiden...and has nearly 10 lengths to find on last run with SF..form is going the wrong way for me
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You can't use that run as suggesting the form is going the wrong way, it was a bottomless bog at the Curragh and the ground today will be much much more like it was at Epsom.

On the clock, Sariska has been superior to the rest of them field by some way on my figures.
 
EC1 said:
on Good ground Sariska is about 4th best - on fast ground - 2nd best

just on bare OHR's you would be taking very bad value about Sariska at 11/8..she is 3rd on OHR's behind Midday and Snow Fairy..11/8?..surely just mathematically if all 3 are same horse you would want 2/1 minimum..as it is she 3rd best and there's a couple of others that hold middling chances..so 9/4-5/2 would be a baseline fair price surely?

not sure where you are seeing this apparent superiority to be honest..particulary when its more than likely ground will be faster than good

Meeznah has won one race from 5 starts ...a very poor maiden...and has nearly 10 lengths to find on last run with SF..form is going the wrong way for me

I hope they hammer Sariska & Midday which should push SF out nicely to about 4/1 if everyone is as confident as you are re Sariska
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For someone who would willingly take apart OHRs, it's bizarre you try to use them to prove a point..

The three fillies at the top of the market are not the same fillies as you suggest; Sariska has comfortably the best form of the fillies, and there is no disputing this - this does not mean she will win today, but it does mean she certainly has the best chance.

Simon Rowlands wrote an article somewhere recently about people paying too much attention to the most recent performance and ignoring form prior to that; this becomes more interesting still when there is such an obvious reason for Meeznah running poorly last time out (ground) and this will not be a feature this time around, yet her price is around 3 times what you may expect. I am not saying I think she will win but she's too big, and that's solely down to a race that will have no bearing on today's race.

Sariska should win, and win well. She should be shorter, and is well worth a decent bet.
 
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Aragorn said:
I backed meeznah for the oaks and thought she was unlucky at the time but after the Irish version I changed my mind and think snow fairy is miles ahead of the othe 3yo's. Given her allowance I think she'll have the beating of the older fillies but not by much.
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No offence, but I despair when I see people using wfa allowance as part of a reasoning for having a bet ..:blink:
 
Gamla Stan said:
You can't use that run as suggesting the form is going the wrong way, it was a bottomless bog at the Curragh and the ground today will be much much more like it was at Epsom.
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Are you sure it was a "bottomless bog" for the Irish Oaks? You're not mixing it up with last year's race?
 
Hamm said:
No offence, but I despair when I see people using wfa allowance as part of a reasoning for having a bet ..:blink:
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If you think that a horse receiving WFA is ahead of the average physical progress that the WFA scale assumes, couldn't it lead you to think it has an advantage?
 
How can you quanitfy that from the distance we all (or those of us non-owners at least) are from that, or other horses?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Are you sure it was a "bottomless bog" for the Irish Oaks? You're not mixing it up with last year's race?
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It was very soft anyway, certainly far different from the ground the fillies will be encountering today.

The price has gone about Meeznah now anyway unfortunately.
 
It never occurred to me until I saw Sea The Stars and Conduit next to each other in the Sandown paddock last year. I realised if I had to explain to a non-racing fan that Sea The Stars was getting significant weight from Conduit because he was physically less mature, I'd get laughed at, purely based on their physical appearance in front of us.

In general terms, it stands to reason that if the WFA scale reflects the average immaturity of younger horses that around half of those horses are ahead of the curve by some amount. Most of those that are will only be ahead of it by a very small amount, but there's bound to be outliers.
 
Of course, you're right but unless you saw both fillies yesterday, you are blind as to their likely physical advantage (or even disadvantage) based on the allowance in today's race.
 
Took 3.15 on Sariska on the machine, which I think is huge.

Put it like this - the only one of the 3 fillies near the head of the market that I could see running well in the Arc, let alone running, is Sariska, and as long as she is fit and ready, I can't see her being beaten. Her run behind Fame and Glory is far and away the best piece of form of any horse in this race.
 
Midday just far too good for the three year olds - really disappointing that we did not see the clash with Sariska.
 
I thought she was staying on ok. She's got an entry and I'm not sure where else they could go where they wouldn't run in to Midday, Sariska or Dar Re Mi.
 
Disappointed with Sariska but what can you do.

I find it very hard to warm to Midday what with connections refusing to take on colts a la Sariska and Dar re mi.
 
To do that Dar Re Mi beat the likes of La Boum and Stacelita by a length - I have no doubt Midday can (indeed she has) beat those horses.

Last year's Arc was most unsatisfactory with some not running to form and others flattered to get so close to STS.
 
Okay, if you choose to see it like that - Midday would not win the Sheema, and she has failed to beat Sariska on 3 occasions, whereas Dar re mi won relatively comfortably here last year...
 
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