The Oaks & Irish Oaks

Have to say I'm with Colin on Midday. The Lingfield race looks poor and whilst I acknowledge she couldn't have done it easier, I still think she needs to find another 10 lb or so to win an Oaks. Considering she's already had a go at the trip, has gone round the course and will be one of the more experienced fillies to line up, I can't see where it's coming from. The runner-up would have given her a race had Moore wanted to.
 
I'd say average. The race undoubtedly looks open at present with no filly able to show themselves to be an outstanding candidate yet, but the Musidora usually proves the most significant trial and at this stage I prefer High Heeled, who imo already has stronger form than Midday and should also improve again for stepping up to 12f. I expect something to come along and show themselves to be a high 110's/low 120's filly, but think others have greater scope to do that than Midday.
 
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Midday looks very solid to me . I get the feeling High Heeled might need cut to be competitive.
 
I don't think High Heeled would be bothered if the ground didn't come up on the soft side of good. I think she is good enough to win it given the right ride.
 
The market is going to look substantially different at 7.30 tonight than it does now. The Musidora and Blue Wind should tell us a lot. I personally think Jakarta Jazz is hugely overpriced in the Naas trial tonight but Beauty O Gwaun does look an exciting filly.
 
Gamla Stan said:
The market is going to look substantially different at 7.30 tonight than it does now. The Musidora and Blue Wind should tell us a lot. I personally think Jakarta Jazz is hugely overpriced in the Naas trial tonight but Beauty O Gwaun does look an exciting filly.
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That is a cracking trial at Naas today....really good reports about the Oxx filly. She, Jakarta Jazz and the O'Brien maiden are the ones I will be keeping an eye on.
 
The negative for the Oxx filly is that she appears in Martin Julien's Dark Horses this year and some of the ones he's really talked up have had a comedy fall from grace!
 
Impressive in wearing down the classy runner up . Will she come down the hill ? Looked a big filly and to dwarf the runner up - and 1.5 sec slower race than the opening handicap
 
Ground looked very quick there, and she looked up against a bunch of fillys that were far from comfortable on it bar the second.
 
It's been very windy here and Epsom dry's fast so the ground will be fast here, the rain has missed us again, still have not made my mind up yet but I like the Oakes more than the Derby.
 
Ardross said:
and 1.5 sec slower race than the opening handicap
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I thought there was an interesting comment made by Simon Holt afterwards in this regard;

"was that a good pace? well that's one for the speed boys to get their calculators out for and do their stuff".

And this from a man who must have watched tens of thousands of races. Where as the human eye can detect extremes it frequently struggles to regularly and accurately differentiate otherwise as the naked eye has limitations. Now it could be that Holt is one of the more humble of commentators and doesn't feel it necessary to offer a definitive opinion on every aspect of racing at every opportunity etc but it reminded me of some research a few years ago when jockeys were asked to ride horses at certain speeds. Half way through the experiment they downed tools and stopped co-operating as they felt they were falling into a trap that could undermine their professional credibility. The first sets of findings were indicating that they weren't very good at it!!! They seemed to be taking their queue from the signals the horse was sending out and weren't able to ride at a pre-determind speed, as many were coming back in to tell the researchers what speed they reckoned they were riding at, only to be some what put out when they were informed what speed they actually were riding at.

I freely admit that outside of extremes fast and slow I'm not much good at this. Why would i be? I've not be brought up with horses, not worked with them, nor ridden one, so forming a meaningful visual opinion is a weakness of mine. However, I don't compound this weakness by conning myself into thinking I possess an observational skill that I don't. It always amazes me though how many people with no real greater experience than I are so quick and self-assured to denounce a horses appearence or comment on racing pace.

Now Simon Holt did offer an opinion of sorts based on the proximity of the back marker, but seemed to be conceeding that's all he was basing the opinion on, and would prefer to trust what the stopwatch and calculator will later tell him. So fair play to Holt.

This reason for mentioning this is purely in the context of the Pouliches incidentally and the differing excuses for the defeat of Fantasia's defeat which seem to revolve around differing opinions as to how the race was run.

I'm sure we'll be back on the Oaks with the next post:D
 
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Never underestimate a 3 year old beating older horses at this time of year, particularly one that only has had one outing as a two year old. However I would imagine Oxx will not send Beauty O'Gwaun to Epsom but she could be a serious Irish Oaks filly.
 
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Not a bad show from Beauty O Gwuan there, made hard work of it but you'd think she'll come on for the run.

A little bit of pocket talking perhaps but the ride Jakarta Jazz got wasn't the best, think she got to see every strip of grass in the straight!
 
I'd be slightly concerned that she hung so violently left for pressure. With the exception of Brighton, I can't think there's a course in the country that punishes a horse on a right to left camber as much as Epsom. She'll be on the top deck of the one of the buses
 
Wondered about that earlier. How many top class 12f performers has Pivotal had?

RP stats say she's had 18 winners from 194 (9%) over 12-13f. Average a winner has taken is around 9k so not top class races.

Only one I can spot straight off that comes close is Chorist, who was top class over 10f and managed a third in a Group 3 at Ascot over 12f but had bombed out in the Yorkshire Oaks before that.
 
Mighty, out of a Miswaki mare, managed some very good form over 12f including a neck second to Maraahel in the John Porter.
 
EC1 said:
I don't think Sarista will stay 12f looking at her breeding. Half sister stayed but was by In The Wings.
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EC1 said:

what you guys think? Steve?
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Been busy today. Only had time to dip into the York thread. I have been looking out for her and like you wasn't sure about her stamina this morning.

I mentioned on the other thread that although her DI is higher than a typical Oaks winner (1.91) and she has no stamina points in her profile, as such, she has a concentration of mid-range Classic points that outweigh her speed influences (dominant classicity). This gives her a fair chance of staying the trip. I said at the time I couldn't be adamant, but I've seen the replay now and am much more reassured that she'll get it. She took a while to get into her stride but went away from them at the death staying on quite powerfully I thought. So on style of running I'd say she'll be alright.

I was also quite impressed with Beauty O'Gwaun at Naas this evening.



 
Gareth Flynn said:
Wondered about that earlier. How many top class 12f performers has Pivotal had?

RP stats say she's had 18 winners from 194 (9%) over 12-13f. Average a winner has taken is around 9k so not top class races.

Only one I can spot straight off that comes close is Chorist, who was top class over 10f and managed a third in a Group 3 at Ascot over 12f but had bombed out in the Yorkshire Oaks before that.
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Would be interesting to know how stout the Dam's influence was with the 12f winners.

Have you noticed the error when you click on the Dam Maycocks Bay?

Under progeny results it shows Gull Wing & Sarista..alongside is the highest RPR and the dist..Gull Wing shows 106 @ 14f..Sarista shows as 101 @ 12f.

Maybe they know something we don't :)
 
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