The Paddy Power Gold Cup2009 (Entries)

I wouldn't be so sure - the amount of rain the track has had and has to come is a lot. I'd say it'll be soft at best by the time the PP is run and that there will be plenty of NRs over the weekend.
 
I've been thinking about Chapoturgeon, and I keep coming back to the fact he would need to be a 160 horse to win off his current mark. He doesn't look like a 160 horse to me - anyone have any thoughts on this?
 
Gearoid said:
I think it is a very hard market to second guess. It might be one that Pricewise has a big impact on. If ruby were to switch to Tatenen he might go off favourite but I doubt it.
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Tatenen would be worth favouritism, whether Ruby rides him or not, in my view... not that I'm bothered about him being made favourite, as such, one way or the other... I'm just very happy to avail myself of any price that is bigger than it should be.
 
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Hamm said:
I've been thinking about Chapoturgeon, and I keep coming back to the fact he would need to be a 160 horse to win off his current mark. He doesn't look like a 160 horse to me - anyone have any thoughts on this?
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Even his owner thinks he'd have to improve a fair bit. I'd expect him to run well (perhaps to his highest rating to date) and still not win.
 
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Also they are saying Chap with the soft ground is an unknown quantity. I know this the puzzle this year is a lot more difficult to unravel than recent years. I have backed 2 in the race. Chap and Tat.
 
Arial_Ortega said:
Also they are saying Chap with the soft ground is an unknown quantity. I know this the puzzle this year is a lot more difficult to unravel than recent years. I have backed 2 in the race. Chap and Tat.
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I think the conditions will be fine for Chap. He just need to run to quite a bit better than he has to stand a chance.
 
SteveM said:
Tatenen would be worth favouritism, whether Ruby rides him or not, in my view... not that I'm bothered about him being made favourite, as such, one way or the other... I'm just very happy to avail myself of any price that is bigger than it should be.
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If the ground gets much softer, I think Tatenan would have a real favourite's chance, and would back him down to 4s.
 
Arial_Ortega said:
Simmo what about a reverse forecast Our Vic and Knowwhere. Not the worst 300 to 1 exacta.
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I love Old Vic. But at 11 (rising 12) off top weight I'd suggest the owner has mainly insisted he run to keep the weights down for his other one (albeit different trainer) who needs all the help he can get to ensure he is not overstretched.
 
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Hamm said:
If the ground gets much softer, I think Tatenan would have a real favourite's chance, and would back him down to 4s.
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I can leave him alone now (I've averaged above 10s). Ballyfitz is the one I'll be taking out insurance on.
 
Certainly was and todays ground will certainly suit. Trainers horses on the whole running well. Due to go up more than todays penalty.
 
SteveM said:
Tatenen would be worth favouritism, whether Ruby rides him or not, in my view... not that I'm bothered about him being made favourite, as such, one way or the other... I'm just very happy to avail myself of any price that is bigger than it should be.
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I assumed he would be the stables first choice and was put off taking the 12-1. What price would you make him at this stage?
 
Gearoid said:
I assumed he would be the stables first choice and was put off taking the 12-1. What price would you make him at this stage?
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I'd say 5/1 would be a fair reflection of his chance, so I'm happy in averaging more than twice that. I don't pay too much attention to perceived pecking order in these situations. There has always been confidence behind Tatenen for this. Murphy was always going to be on the Johnson horse and Walsh could have gone either way on the Stewart horses (especially as the other one is coming off the back of a win, jockeys are loath to get off winning form).
 
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Filthy weather is forecast... not just wet but high winds. Hope the racing will not be damaged. Punchestown has called an inspection.
 
Bear in mind that doing the opposite to what Nicholls has said publically (usually in the RP column) would often send you in the right direction. There are many examples, but remember how down he was on Denman's chances in the Hennessey 2 years ago?
 
Full credit to PP for their extremely generous concession on this race. I almost feel like I have to get involved now. Tough race to weigh up though.
 
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