OK, I've had another look at the race and find myself going round in circles so I'm taking a thinking-out-of-the-box approach this time.
When I'm looking at big handicaps I always try to keep in mind what kind of performance it takes to win it. I look for types that have already hit the required level in terms of previously posting figures that meet the relative achievements of previous winners and others with the potential to get there.
Into the latter category come Our Vic on his form the season before last and Three Mirrors and Il Duce on their form last year. Il Duce has changed yards, suggesting it's no longer considered up to the job so he's out. Our Vic is an old favourite but he's likely to be vulnerable to a few from the first group and certainly not getting any younger or better, so he's scrubbed. I backed Three Mirrors in this race last year. I suspected at the time they rode him all wrong. He was held up far too far back and never got into it. The problem is, they kept riding him that way. He's 9lbs lower in the ratings now than a year ago and bigger in the betting. It wouldn't be unusual for some horses to have a quiet year before returning to form. Considering the yard targets winners at the course and landed a gamble with L'Antartique a couple of years ago, I'm fascinated that they're staying loyal with this horse to represent them. Although he's now nine, he could be quite unexposed.
The handicappers seem to be getting a grip on the top novices much earlier in their careers these days. Maybe changes in training routines are getting horses sharper earlier but in recent years there seems to me to have been far more 150+ novices from mid-October on. I remember wondering if the handicapper had lost it when he rated Bradbury Star something like 155 before Christmas in his novice year. In theory, if the handicapper has a hold of them, they're less likely to show the vast second-sseason improvement we got used to for many years. Last year was a good example. Imperial Commander didn't get involved in the big races and got into this very lightly to foil the Jewson runner-up Barber's Shop. The previous year L'Antartique wasn't hit too hard for the Jewson and took this race. The year before, Exotic Dancer no less got in off just 139.
I just have to think anything rated close to 150 or more could well be vulnerable to someting less exposed so I can't entertain them as a betting medium. This takes out the field from Ballyfitz up.
Of the others, I see I'm So Lucky lurking off 139. This horse was giving weight to Planet Of Sound this time last season before losing its form. If the latter was in here off 139 it wouldn't be 33/1 or more; under 10s more like. Factor in that I'm So Lucky represents a yard with an incredible record in the race and he's my idea of a proper value punt.
