The Pointing Thread

Cheers lads - very happy with todays two winners at 7/4 and 14/1. Onwards and upwards, though think it'd be too greedy asking for Gardasee to go in at a big price in the other HC at Leicester.

There's more HC action over the weekend too :)

Martin
 
Happy to take on Old Si in the 2m 4f race, he's been running over 3m and this trip is more to his liking but he's struggled in races at speed tracks and IMO is highly vulnerable with the most likely winner being Power Shared for Clare Hart. Power Shared made a pleasing return to action at Ston Easton last month when third to Quedillac (previously a winner of a similar Larkhill race) and Logans Run (since finished runner-up in a HC) and this 2m 4f will be more to his liking than that affair and it's entirely possible that had the race been over a furlong or so shorter he'd have beaten those two very useful animals. At 6/1 or so he represents a solid bet in this.

In the 3m 2f Crudwell Cup I feel that a dark horse could be the Larkhill Maiden winner Noble Aran who impressed me with the style of his victory on that occasion and though stepping up markedly in grade looks like he could prove to be a decent purchase for his new pointing connections. Noble Aran had previously run under rules - most recently for Nigel Twiston-Davies with limited success though the quicker ground at Larkhill (and indeed the good ground he will get today) look sure to suit him better than the good to soft he had been racing on. He has a lot to find on the OR's with the useful Recif De Thaix switching to points having been purchased by Robert Waley-Cohen but there have been at least two notable horses who've underperformed in points this season having switched from track racing at a relatively young age and having been off the track for nearly two years the percentage call is to oppose him. The trip will certainly be to Palypso De Creek's liking and fingers crossed that Clare Hart will be on a double by the time it comes to riding this fellow though he looks priced about right at 5/1.

At a bigger price Apollo Blaze is interesting - he's likely to be around 33/1 but has the highly capable Mikey Ennis taking over from a female novice pilot (albeit a useful one) and that should be to his advantage and he's fairly closely matched with Quil Est Beau on running earlier in the season and with the bounce factor a possible for QEB Apollo Blaze may be worth a small interest against the more fancied runners.

To summise I'll be having a fair E/W bet on Noble Aran at around 20/1 (I hope) and a smaller E/W bet on Apollo Blaze at 33's or so in the 3m 2f affair and then Power Shared at around 6's in the short HC.

Off to Godstone today - quality won't be great but should be some competitive racing at least and hopeful of a couple of HC winners too.

Anyone else any thoughts on the racing today?

Martin
 
I'm giving local course Treborough a miss - bad viewing on the whole coupled with the fact its foggy here which means it could be pea soup up there. Its also a course where horses can break down badly as little top soil. Might be doing my old local, Howick, next week though.
 
Poor results last Sunday and the absence of the favourite gives this next race at Towcester an open look to it.

Personally not a fan of William Butler coming off a long lay off and he's as short as he is due to connections and the jockey IMO - beaten last time out in a Claiming Hurdle is a concern despite his relatively high rating.

Officier De Reserve is the bet for me at 3.45 - the ground will have been far too soft for him at Haydock and the drop back to 2m 6f should suit him too, Sam Painting is a decent jockey who's done well on the likes of Kahlua Cove in points and on The Polomoche in HC's in recent seasons and he's taken to beat Dusshera who's had her chances in better races than this so far this season.

Martin
 
That too - out with a bruised foot Jinny.

Some complaints from elsewhere that Description has been balloted out - hard to argue really as his OR is lower than Theatre Diva and if one of the "true pointers" ie. those campaigned exclusively in HC's and P2P's had gone (namely Blackstaff, Count Salazar and Oscar Delta) then there'd have been far more to complain about IMO.

Martin
 
My main bet so far Del is a few fairly decent Ante-Post wagers on My Flora at between 14/1 and 16/1. She fell over an inadequate trip at Newbury but has won easily at Chaddesley Corbett since and I think she'll go well again but I'd imagine there'll be some 12/1 available tomorrow.

Also backing:

Surenaga @ 66/1. He won the most prestigious P2P race of the season last year the Lady Dudley Cup (also at CC) over 3 1/2m on the bridle on a sound surface and won't have been at all suited by the bottomless ground at Haydock (the early Betfair market suggested someone knew he wouldn't be running his race that day too), despite that he travelled very very well into the race and it was only the ground that beat him on the day (form has been franked since by both Island Chief and Officier De Reserve) and the sound surface at Cheltenham tomorrow will be far more to his liking.

Bradley @ 50/1. He's already a CD winner having taken the Intermediate Final (a Novicey P2P Championship if you will) at this track at the Hunter Chase meeting in 2010 and as such is proven under very similar conditions to tomorrow's. He went on to finish 2nd in the UK Novice Championship of that year (a race won by My Flora in 2011) at Stratford over 3 1/2m so should stay the trip well. He came back this year to finish runner-up to the front running Monkerty Tunkerty (Bradley also raced handy) in one of the first HC's of the UK season at Warwick back in January and he's since taken out a Military riders race at Sandown. Bradley is reunited with Mark Wall today and can go well at a huge price.

My final selection comes from across the sea:

Count Salazar @ 40/1. Remarkably this fellow started the season a Maiden having suffered defeats in two very hot Maidens last season (5+ winners have come out of each of them) including first time out at Lisronagh behind todays rival Salsify on good ground in December 2010. He came back this Autumn and got off the mark on good to yielding ground from subsequent winner Frankie Flowers at Milltown prior to one of the most impressive performances of the season so far for me in a Winners race at Ballydarragh in December when he didn't come off the bridle to beat Oppera by 15 lengths. His track debut came in a Maiden Hunter Chase over Christmas in which his main market rival Tyrone Golden Rain fell but he still went on to score by 2 1/2 lengths from Spiker The Biker (significantly inferior to todays rivals) at Limerick whilst his next outing came at Thurles when he was never really at the races and dropped out tamely (other big names disappointed on this day also including Benefficient in the Novice Hurdle and also Salsify in this race) behind todays rivals Merchant Royal and Not Before Eight but he returned to form with a bang and secured qualification for this race with his first Open P2P victory at Bennettsbridge just over two weeks when he saw off the formerly useful Perce Rock. The main concern is that his best performances have all come on soft/heavy ground and that like many others in this race he races prominently - I'm hoping they sit mid div with him as I don't think he'll have the pace to go with some of the speedier types early on.

Martin
 
Interesting Novices HC at Fakenham today - Marky Bob should win this if returning in the same vein as he did earlier this month at Tweseldown but I think that Into The Light is a good deal better than he's shown so far, he's lowly rated under rules and would have finished closer LTO in a handicap hurdle but for a bad mistake late on. He had earlier stayed on well in a Maiden P2P from well out the back and with more than enough pace on in the race he represents a fair bet at 9/1.

Will also be playing the forecast with Marky Bob as despite what others say I'm not a fan of Silver Tenor who though returning to form last time out it wasn't the greatest race ever run at Garthorpe and he still looks vulnerable to me.

Martin
 
Good Hunter Chase at Southwell today with Paul Rich's Sizing America the likely favourite.

Sizing America was useful on his day and has shown very decent form this season behind Bradley though IMO he's vulnerable to the Phil York trained Ringa Bay who though a bit of a headcase has shown plenty in his two most recent starts this season. The first of those came at Charing when he led all the way in a large field Members event to beat some very useful horses whilst last time out at Kingston Blount he again led from pillar to post to record another decent success in an Intermediate. He's only had the one start over regulation fences and that came at the Folkestone HC night last May when he was still travelling very well when coming down at the 11th and Phil York will surely be wanting to get some more rules experience into him prior to the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham in May.

He warrants a bet at 4/1 and the evs available with Sportingbet and Ladbrokes about him beating the Ian Williams trained Teddy's Reflection is also worth taking.

Martin
 
Thanks Grey - very pleased with that result, cracking front running ride from Yorkie as always (ridden from the back on his seasonal return) and now 3/3 in completed starts this term and surely heads to a clash with Woodview Prince and co in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham in May :)

Martin
 
Irish Stamp said:
Good Hunter Chase at Southwell today with Paul Rich's Sizing America the likely favourite.

Sizing America was useful on his day and has shown very decent form this season behind Bradley though IMO he's vulnerable to the Phil York trained Ringa Bay who though a bit of a headcase has shown plenty in his two most recent starts this season. The first of those came at Charing when he led all the way in a large field Members event to beat some very useful horses whilst last time out at Kingston Blount he again led from pillar to post to record another decent success in an Intermediate. He's only had the one start over regulation fences and that came at the Folkestone HC night last May when he was still travelling very well when coming down at the 11th and Phil York will surely be wanting to get some more rules experience into him prior to the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham in May.

He warrants a bet at 4/1 and the evs available with Sportingbet and Ladbrokes about him beating the Ian Williams trained Teddy's Reflection is also worth taking.

Martin
Click to expand...

Excellent Martin :D
 
Well done Martin, you're doing well! It's been all downhill since Salsify for me last week. Just coming out of the self induced fog now!

Like the look of Presentandcorrect today despite his advancing years. For The Staff is not that impressive on his park form in Ireland unless Mr Edmonds is after turning him inside out?
 
Good race between the front three today I think Trefflich - the one I think is seriously underpriced is Templer as he showed little on his seasonal return (relative to his previous seasonal returns) and For The Staff has been v v impressive in his two starts over here under Jo Buck who again takes the ride today.

Tim Sage who trains Presentandcorrect is only a small trainer and he doesn't have many horses but he does well with what he has including winning HC's with the late William Somers last season (sadly WS died during the Summer) and with Mark Wall taking the ride he could be tough to beat.

Personally I think the market is about right on both For The Staff (I had him at 13/8) and Presentandcorrect (I had at 5/2) though the latter appears to be drifting and I could see him going 7/2 or so judged on the current state of the market and he's certainly where the value lies at the moment. For the record I had Templer priced at 4/1.

I think the value in the current markets is Bet365's 4/5 about For The Staff in a match bet with Templer who's 10/11 in the same market.

Martin
 
Good link that Granger - thanks for posting.

A few notes from the weekend - firstly one of the best races of the season was held at Whitfield when Chiquilline (Tom Lacey), Harbour Court (Alan Hill) and Woodview Prince (Sheila Crow) clashed in a qualifier for the Cheltenham Final and after the departure of Chiquilline at about 6 out Harbour Court and Woodview Prince had it between them from 3 out and it was WP who came out on top, Harbour Court showed tremendous battling qualities but couldn't get back up on the run in whilst WP has more experience and it certainly showed.

Also like to mention the Tom Lacey trained 4yo Maiden Tiqris (Sam Drinkwater) who was supposed to be receiving 21lbs from his elders though SD had to put up 3lbs overweight and overcame a horrendous error at the second last which brought him to a standstill to beat some useful Maidens. It's hard to put into words exactly what I saw from stood alongside (and about 50 yards back) the final fence but it's fair to say he was going twice as fast as his rivals at that stage and after being bought for 31,000gns last year he was reportedly sold immediately after the race to race out of McCain's yard or Henderson's yard depending on who you listen to.

Martin
 
Good race today - not a fan of Current Exchange FTO over regulation fences, these are some decent horses he's taking on and with Findlay's Find failing to complete on each of his last three tries under rules I'd be inclined to look for a bit of value in the shape of Marblehead who ran well over an inadequate trip last time out, the third romped home at Carlisle on Sunday and the chances are that the winner will turn out to be a very useful Hunter Chase at sub-3 miles. With Marblehead winning over 4m back in January and with stamina being his forte and with plenty of pace in the race (via Cave Hill, Current Excahnge, Gershwinner, Little Rocker and possibly Lorikarad) I hope they hold him up as per the Dunthrop run as the race will likely be a decent stamina test.

9/1 looks a more than fair E/W price to me with the other interesting horse being Mr Robert who was a very useful horse for Evan Williams and is still trained in South Wales.

Martin
 
Findlays Find now out to 7.2 to back on Betfair - that's a very backable price IMO and worth having two against the favourite with :)

Martin
 
Knew you'd pick Marblehead! Jelly O'Brien/M Wall, who would be their equivalent over here in Ireland? I fancy him to place alright but agree with you that FF is a very tempting price. Could be 2/2 this year only for jumping errors....third time lucky? Here's hoping!
 
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