The Pointing Thread

Irish Stamp said:
First Hunter Chase of the season tomorrow - looks a cracker too for all it will be one of the hardest to price up all year.

Quick look would suggest that there's a horse who's yet to finish outside the frame on soft or heavy ground who could be a big price :)

Martin
Click to expand...

Kirkleigh?


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Spot on Benny.

I wouldn't worry about that Edgt there'll be enough money around for the two mares in the race - some 33's about Kirkleigh who should improve for his seasonal return when he slipped on a bend and made a bad mistake at a crucial point in a race won by Double Bank down at Wadebridge would be nice.

Martin
 
Had to have a little bit place only on Bermuda Boy @ 30.0 given he's pretty much the same price to place that I made him in the Outright market.

Martin
 
Irish Stamp said:
Had to have a little bit place only on Bermuda Boy @ 30.0 given he's pretty much the same price to place that I made him in the Outright market.

Martin
Click to expand...


Sounded like a quality race Martin ;)


some sketchy jumps but they're all over the first
Bermuda Boy clobbered the second
King Fontaine leads
Double Bank lies second
Qrackers third
Qrackers makes mistake
Killimore Cottage makes mistake
20ls first to last
Shalimar Fromentro a terrible fall
Shalimar Fromentro somehow gets to his feet
Chosen Milan making headway
Fine Resolve tailed off
Double Bank leads
King Fontaine lies second
Executive Benefit third
Chosen Milan, Double Dash & Kirkleigh prominent
Fine Resolve should pull up before he falls - his jumping is dreadful

and that was all fairly soon into the race, with over a circuit to go :blink:
 
Certainly eventful - Shalimar Fromentro was lucky to get up.

Fine Resolve jumped very badly LH though wouldn't say he ever really looked like falling.

Chosen Milan and Kirkleigh both weakened rapidly, Qrackers still doesn't stay three miles and they went far too quick up front on the ground in my opinion.

Good return from the winner and a top effort from Double Bank considering he was up there with the pace the whole way.

Martin
 
Cappa Bleu returns today - for me there are some pretty major concerns surrounding him, most notably the trip (short), ground (too soft), jockey (no experience), fitness (has usually come on for the run). Would also question how much ability he retains but in this sort of race that's something of an aside.

Of the others Wicklow Lad has slight stamina concerns but has last seasons leading Northern Area Novice Rider up - she's never ridden over fences in public before so slightly put off her in that regard.

Darsi Dancer is a horse on the up following his Club Members win last month but disappointed on his sole HC start here in the Buccleuch Cup last season.

Flying Native - Lacks the class for this

Tweedy's Choice - Not good enough

Nowurhurlin - Concerns about trip and ground but ran well at Cottenham at the end of November and finished strongly, decent jockey up and should go well at a decent price.

Nobunaga - Chances on his old form but disappointing really on his return at Alnwick last month.

Overall - I had a decent lay of Cappa Bleu last night which worked out at around 8/15, reckon after deductions he should be around the 11/8 mark really as he's the most likely winner but is no value. Sided with Wicklow Lad and hopefully a revival of Douglas Julian to get all the sweets if possible.

Martin
 
That's a tricky one Edgt - there are an awful lot that I've not been to but love them all for various reasons.

The best for quality are undoubtedly Larkhill and Maralin - both get quality youngsters in the maidens and stage competitive racing regardless of the grade.

Godstone is a great day out with plenty to do despite there being a small part of the track that isn't visible, Dingley is a great viewing track from up on the bank and the banks race at Tattersalls Farm is definitely something that is worth the visit to Ratoath for alone.

Martin
 
Holnicote - obviously as I run the 2nd one in May - also the prettiest course in the South West
Chipley - a good viewing course and it just seems to work there
Black Forest Lodge - some good memories especially when Fully Loaded was winning there for us
Horseheath - lovely course, always managed to back winners there
Howick - backed my first ever winner there which started me on the road to racing and ruin!
 
The most impressive performance I saw last season came from Remind Me Later who took a Restricted event at Northaw on Bank Holiday Monday without coming off the bridle. He'd won a 2 1/2m match race at Charing on firm ground on his only other British start having finished down the field in a Maiden Hurdle at Tipperary in Summer 2013. Not saying he'll win today as I don't think that 2m6f on heavy ground at Ascot will suit but he's worth keeping an eye on for the future in the 16:05. He couldn't have won any easier on what was g/f ground in a decent time though he's more likely to be one for a 2-2 1/2m handicap hurdle in the Spring.

Martin
 
Michael Winters, a good friend of this forum down the years has produced a trio of nice maiden winners this year.
Churchtown Champion and Knocknanuss go to Brightwells Sale at Cheltenham this weekend alas but he keeps For Bill's half brother.
Knocknanuss ,who won at Killeagh Sunday seemingly one of the best maiden winners this year as he had a decent field in trouble after two miles.
Deep pockets required for him if you are interested.
 
Good call edgt - Knocknanuss in the famous Rebel Fitz colours and For Bill's brother in the white and purple.

Also at Killeagh on Sunday Did You Ever's younger brother lined up for the concluding maiden, sadly Ciaran Fennessy got tangled up in the starting tape so he was unseated at the start. Hoping his next outing goes better as the Dulohery's have been ridiculously patient with him.

Woodview Prince and Executive Benefit among those entered at Higham on Sunday - trainer thinks WP is the best horse he's ever put a saddle on (that includes some very very useful chasers) but is also the most unsound horse around sadly.

Martin
 
Two N/R's today.

Looks like Out Now vs. Sir Du Bearn on paper. The former seems to like better ground, though regularly wins on y/s, any rain would be a huge negative to his chances and with Sir Du Bearn having the best jockey (taking over from a decent novice rider) in the saddle he should take this, take 9/4 as it should be favourite.

Martin
 
Still keen to be against Out Now as David Maxwell really isn't the best (and that's putting it nicely) - Best Served Cold won last time out but they gave the race to Banny's Lad due to a lack of photo finish equipment etc and is well worth a bet at 4/1.

Martin
 
Undoubtedly Pacha Du Polder is the best horse in tomorrow's race at Wincanton, however the horse doesn't appear to want a yard over 2m4f to me, has been kept away from soft ground by current connections (won on it as a 4yo in France though) and seemingly runs more bad races than good these days. I made him favourite (7/4) and he's currently available to lay at 1.85 which is ridiculously short given the doubts. As far as I can see on paper there's only his ability that he has going for him - assuming he still retains most of it.

Would rather be with guaranteed stayer Sobre Tresor who won well in a maiden event at Fontwell in May - he's upped in grade here but will handle the ground, has the benefit of a run from which he's sure to improve and is currently 20.0 to back on Betfair.

Martin
 
Double Dash is an unknown quantity at this trip - think Coombe Hill is generally better on a sounder surface these days (did finish second in this in 2013 though) so reckon the best option is Sobre Tresor W/O Double Dash which is currently 2/1.

Martin
 
Siro Demur is a pretty useful Hunter Chase at 2 1/2m and under, sadly doesn't stay 3m in points but tackles a few iffy rivals here - T43 wasn't good enough to win a 2 1/2m maiden hurdle as a youngster and can see him being outpaced badly in this 18 runner field.

Would also have doubts about Calgary Bay who hasn't been seen in a long time. Act Of Kalanisi ran well on his pointing debut last month and he's an interesting Richard Hewitt-owned horse as one of the few he owns that aren't with Joe O'Shea.

Siro Demur is currently available @ 33/1 with Betfair Sportsbook and Act Of Kalanisi is 16/1 with Paddy Power and they'd be the two for me.

Martin
 
Isn't Act of Kalanisi the first horse of Zara Phillips to see a racecourse Martin? I suspect she'll have him absolutely spot on, and I'm following you in.

It's a seriously competitive looking Hunter Chase. Possibly the best I've see over here at this time of the year.
 
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She's had quite a few p2p runners Maruco but this will be her first on the track yes.

Looks a great race and have some very serious doubts about Teaforthree - can see him getting outpaced if any of the remaining rags try and tear off.

Martin
 
Thanks for the write up Martin, I've followed on both. Teaforthree is a slow boat and won't see which way some of these went. I'm tempted to look at opposing him in some match bets too.


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